re: 2012 TDBL Offseason Thread: Draft Scheduled for March 21st

quote:

---

F-Mart will be at SS with Evans being Util and Daniel Murphy at 2nd.

---

quote:

---

Tier 1: Mike Napoli, Brian McCann, Carlos Santana.
Tier 2: Matt Wieters.
Tier 3: Alex Avila, Miguel Montero, Buster Posey, Joe Mauer.
Tier 4: Everyone else. (Remember, ESPN standard leagues use only one catcher.)

Overall thoughts: I like catcher this year, especially for one-catcher leagues. I wouldn't reach for a catcher this year, as I'm fine with anyone in the first three tiers and there's lots of potential sleepers not listed here either. Wieters is a sneaky source of runs scored, incidentally. More on runs scored in a bit.

---

quote:

---

First Base
Tier 1: Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols.
Tier 2: Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez.
Tier 3: Prince Fielder.
Tier 4: Paul Konerko, Mark Teixeira.
Tier 5: Eric Hosmer, Mike Napoli, Lance Berkman, Michael Morse, Carlos Santana, Freddie Freeman (I like him a lot this year) and Ryan Howard (this will change once we know where he is health-wise).
Tier 6: Michael Young, Michael Cuddyer, Adam Lind, Gaby Sanchez, Joe Mauer (assume he'll qualify there at some point), Mark Reynolds, Carlos Pena, Edwin Encarnacion, Ike Davis.
Tier 7: Everyone else. Upside guys with questions like Mark Trumbo (have to see how his playing time shakes out with Pujols there and Kendrys supposedly healthy. There's talk of outfield, we'll see) or Kendrys Morales (health) Justin Morneau (same) and upside guys like Lucas Duda, Brandon Belt, Mitch Moreland, Mike Carp, Anthony Rizzo, etc. There's value to be had out of this tier, but it is fraught with danger.

Overall thoughts: More shallow this year than most; you're gonna want a big bopper early. I'm not comfortable with anyone lower than tier four as my first baseman. And if you are in an NL-only league, it gets ugly quick. After Votto, you're in the Morse-Berkman-Freeman area ... none of whom are proven commodities except Berkman, and who knows how healthy he can stay or what the offense is capable of without Pujols anchoring it. If I am in an NL-only league and don't get Votto, I'm waiting. That said, I feel you'll do just fine filling the corner infield spot with a first baseman; those tiers are fairly deep this year as there are a lot of lower-end first basemen I like.

---

quote:

---

Third Base
Tier 1: Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista.
Tier 2: Hanley Ramirez, Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre.
Tier 3: David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, Pablo Sandoval.
Tier 4: Aramis Ramirez, Michael Young, Kevin Youkilis, Brett Lawrie, Alex Rodriguez.
Tier 5: Ryan Roberts, Mark Reynolds, Martin Prado, Emilio Bonifacio, Edwin Encarnacion, David Freese.
Tier 6: Mike Moustakas, Chase Headley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Chipper Jones, Daniel Murphy.
Tier 7: Everyone else.

Overall thoughts: Much deeper than expected, especially when you add Miggy and HanRam to it, as both should qualify there within the first two weeks of the season or so. Fairly solid all the way through tier four, so you can wait a little (not a ton, but a little) on third base. Just remember, as I stated with first base, you'll probably want to fish elsewhere for your corner man if people start reaching for third basemen.

---

quote:

---

Tier 1: Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler.
Tier 2: Ben Zobrist, Dan Uggla, Rickie Weeks, Brandon Phillips, Howard Kendrick, Chase Utley.
Tier 3: Ryan Roberts, Dustin Ackley, Neil Walker, Danny Espinosa, Jemile Weeks, Jason Kipnis.
Tier 4: Aaron Hill, Daniel Murphy, Kelly Johnson.
Tier 5: Everyone else.

Overall thoughts: I like the selection this year. Much more than in years past, as even guys in tier three -- like Ackley or Roberts -- could potentially be very useful. As much as I love Cano, I don't see him as a mid first-rounder the way others have him. Second base is deeper than you think, though the lower tier guys aren't as enticing to me, so while I feel you can wait a bit on second base, I wouldn't wait much longer on filling my middle-infield slot.

---

quote:

---

Shortstop
Tier 1: Troy Tulowitzki.
Tier 2: Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez.
Tier 3: Elvis Andrus, Starlin Castro, Jimmy Rollins, Asdrubal Cabrera.
Tier 4: Alexei Ramirez, J.J. Hardy, Derek Jeter, Jhonny Peralta, Erick Aybar, Dee Gordon.
Tier 5: Stephen Drew, Emilio Bonifacio, Ian Desmond, Yunel Escobar, Alcides Escobar, Marco Scutaro, Cliff Pennington, Jason Bartlett.
Tier 6: Everyone else.

Overall thoughts: Another position that is deeper than you think. If I can get a starting shortstop from the first three tiers and then get my middle infielder from tier four (or from second base) I'm happy. This is also a place to find some cheap speed late, with guys like Bonifacio, Desmond, Escobar and Pennington, among others.

---

quote:

---

Outfield
Tier 1: Matt Kemp, Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun (if not suspended).

Tier 2: Justin Upton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Gonzalez.

Tier 3: Mike Stanton, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Holliday, Curtis Granderson, Michael Bourn.

Tier 4: Jay Bruce, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Hunter Pence, Ben Zobrist, Ryan Braun (if 50-game suspension is upheld), Alex Gordon, Carl Crawford.

Tier 5: Shane Victorino, Lance Berkman, Corey Hart, Michael Morse, Adam Jones, Jayson Werth, Ichiro Suzuki.

Tier 6: Chris Young, Drew Stubbs, B.J. Upton, Brett Gardner, Coco Crisp, Desmond Jennings, Michael Cuddyer, Howard Kendrick, Jason Heyward, Carlos Beltran.

Tier 7: Andre Ethier, Cameron Maybin, Nick Markakis, Torii Hunter, Logan Morrison, Melky Cabrera, Nick Swisher, Jeff Francoeur, Angel Pagan, Carlos Lee, Alex Rios.

Tier 8: Emilio Bonifacio, Martin Prado, Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel, Lucas Duda, Yoenis Cespedes, Matt Joyce, Carlos Quentin.

Tier 9: Brennan Boesch, Mitch Moreland, Mike Carp, Peter Bourjos, Delmon Young, Alfonso Soriano, Brandon Belt, Dexter Fowler, J.D. Martinez, Allen Craig, Michael Brantley, Jason Bay, Aubrey Huff, Austin Jackson.

Tier 10: Everyone else.

Overall thoughts: It gets ugly quick. Here's where your biggest offensive scarcity is, especially considering you play five of them. So many question marks, starting in tier two. Is Ellsbury's power legit? Which is the real CarGo, 2010 or 2011? What about Granderson's power against lefties? Is that for real? What effect does Pujols leaving have on Holliday? And then we get to tier four, the "can they stay healthy?" tier. What happened with Crawford last year? Will Braun be rusty? And what is he like without Fielder? And is Gordon for real? The deeper you go, the more questions I have. So if all other things are equal when choosing, go outfielder early. And with so many more outfielders than any other position, this is where you will shape what stats you get and what you will need elsewhere, so pay careful attention to what kind of production you're drafting in the outfield.

---

quote:

---

Damn, not very high on Desmond Jennings, is he?

---

quote:

---

As you draft and you're deciding between two players, ask yourself: What's more likely to happen? When we all got together for the rankings summit, I was incredulous that the group wanted to rank Brett Lawrie many slots ahead of Kevin Youkilis at third base.

I understand Youk has injury issues and Lawrie lit it up last year. Could Youk get hurt again and it turns out Lawrie is Ryan Braun? Of course.


Brett Lawrie's too sexy for my roster, too sexy for my roster, too sexy by faaaar!
But what's more likely to happen? That Youkilis, whose underlying numbers all seem mostly intact and has been a great hitter for multiple seasons at the big league level, gets back to being an elite fantasy third baseman? Or that a rookie with 150 total at-bats in the majors continues to crush? Lawrie is a hoopy frood who really knows where his towel is. I get it. And he will steal, which has value.

But let's check out two players:

Player A: .333, 23 runs, 8 HRs, 20 RBIs, 14 SB.
Player B: .160, 21 runs, 2 HRs, 5 RBIs, 6 SB.

Player A is Desmond Jennings over his first 141 at-bats last season. Player B is Jennings over the next, and final, 106 at-bats. We used this example on our podcast. Anyone can look good for 150 at-bats. It's a very small sample size. Lawrie (and Jennings) will both be very good major league players, probably as soon as this year

---

quote:

---

No love for Justin Masterson

---