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Storied coaches to Storied programs rarely happen

Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:06 am
Posted by LSUFreek
Greater New Orleans
Member since Jan 2007
14731 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:06 am
Love Les Miles (as a farker) but I, too, am ready for a change at HC after multiple complacent years.

He's arguably squandered elite talent into just above mediocre records recently, but history shows the grass is not always greener.

The mantra "We are a great program; we can get a high profile great coach" rarely works out in the fans favor.

Nebraska:
-"Fire Frank Solich! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Bill Callahan! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Bo Pelini! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Mike Riley! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"

Auburn
-"Fire Tuberville! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Chizik! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Malzahn! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"


Michigan:
-"Fire Lloyd Carr! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Rich Rod! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Brady Hoke! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"

Tennessee:
-"Fire Phil Fulmer! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Lane Kiffin! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Derek Dooley! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Butch Jones! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"

Notre Dame:
-"Fire Bob Davie! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Tyrone Willingham! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Charlie Weis! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"

USC:
-"Fire Lane Kiffin! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Ed Ogeron! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Steve Sarkisian! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"

Texas:
-"Fire Mack Brown! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Charlie Strong! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"

Bama:
-"Fire Ray Perkins! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Gene Stallings! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Mike Dubose! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Dennis Franchione! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"
-"Fire Mike Shula! We are a great program who can get a great coach!"


Hiring a coach is a crap shoot. Ask all those storied programs up above who didn't get the coach they thought they could easily get.

I'm not saying we shouldn't try to upgrade, but don't start bitching when Alleva hires a perceived downgrade. History shows the odds are against us getting the next Saban, Meyer or Harbaugh without multiple fails preceding the next "great hire".
Posted by DollaChoppa
I Simp for ACC
Member since May 2008
84774 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:09 am to
Its worked out for Bama, Notre Dame, and Michigan

It worked out for Auburn too but then they fired Chizik

It wont ever work out for Tennessee and Nebraska because we live in a post 2000 era

And eventually it will work out for USC
Posted by DBU
Member since Mar 2014
19059 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:10 am to
Nebraska is a shell of what it once was.

Auburn has won 2 NCs under Chizik/Malzahn.

Michigan now has Harbaugh.

Tennessee would have been fine had Kiffin not left (re: he was not fired).

Notre Dame went to a NC game and is in the CFP hunt this year.

USC was hit with one of the worst penalties outside of the death penalty.

Bama now has Nick Saban.
Posted by DollaChoppa
I Simp for ACC
Member since May 2008
84774 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:11 am to
quote:

Auburn has won 2 NCs under Chizik/Malzahn.



(1-1) but point still made imo
This post was edited on 11/23/15 at 11:12 am
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59040 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:25 am to
quote:

Nebraska is a shell of what it once was.

Auburn has won 2 NCs under Chizik/Malzahn.

Michigan now has Harbaugh.

Tennessee would have been fine had Kiffin not left (re: he was not fired).

Notre Dame went to a NC game and is in the CFP hunt this year.

USC was hit with one of the worst penalties outside of the death penalty.

Bama now has Nick Saban.


you guys are missing his point. EVENTUALLY it worked for Alabama, but they damn near hired Rich Rod after Saban initially turned them down and that was after over a decade of fire/hire after Stallings was gone.

The better example for Texas is Fred Akers, though that is way before most posters time. Akers replaced the legendary Darrell Royal (who was kinda forced out in 76). Akers lost a couple of NC's in bowl games (77, 83), A&M hired Jackie Sherrill in the early 80's and started pounding UT, so they fired Akers in 1986. The upcoming star they replaced him with was a UT/Royal guy, David McWilliams he flamed out and they fired him and hired John Mackovic (sp?) he won a couple of conference titles including a huge upset in the first ever BigXII CG, but then he was fired after the 1997 season and the FINALLY got it right, hiring Mack Brown 12 years after getting rid of Akers.

Now, Les has been here for 11 years and he's 62, so he time was coming to an end sooner rather than later. I was hoping we would make a run this year or next and the could retire at the latest in 3 years, but with the way things are going, the timetable is moved up, which I'm fine with, but don't think all our prayers will be answered with a new coach, because it is 50/50.
This post was edited on 11/23/15 at 11:31 am
Posted by Dizz
Member since May 2008
14718 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:29 am to
I wanted to post this last night. When most programs move on from an established coach it takes at least two hires to get it right.

One thing with a lot of programs is by the time the coach left of was fired the program had already declined severely. I don't feel like LSU has declined as much as some of the other teams listed.
Posted by DollaChoppa
I Simp for ACC
Member since May 2008
84774 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:30 am to
Yea, but can you see Les Miles managing to win an SEC West division title? Cuz I find it difficult. Let alone an SECC or NC.

So it doesnt really matter if we are hiring the coach before the coach it works out
This post was edited on 11/23/15 at 11:32 am
Posted by Dizz
Member since May 2008
14718 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:31 am to
quote:

Auburn has won 2 NCs under Chizik/Malzahn. Michigan now has Harbaugh. Tennessee would have been fine had Kiffin not left (re: he was not fired). Notre Dame went to a NC game and is in the CFP hunt this year. USC was hit with one of the worst penalties outside of the death penalty. Bama now has Nick Saban.


My only problem with is that everyone wants to win now and this fan base can't handle 6 years of wandering around the coaching wasteland to get the right guy.
Posted by TigerNE
Everett, MA
Member since Jul 2013
1095 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:32 am to
Good post. Coaching changes can start a parade of dunces, even at places that are pretty good places to work.

The only two fairly recent examples I can think of where big-time programs went from good coaches to better coaches on the first try are Ohio State — Tressel from a guy whose name I can't remember, and Oregon, which swapped Bellotti with Kelly. I'm sure there are others.
Posted by EvrybodysAllAmerican
Member since Apr 2013
11133 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:42 am to
Its all about timing. Bama was fortunate to need a coach the same time Saban was ready to leave the NFL. Same for Michigan and Harbaugh. Ohio state and Urban. And sometimes you have to let a guy go early to get the guy you really want. Sometimes its worth waiting a year like OSU.

So basically, i hope LSU has somebody good (Jimbo) pretty much lined up and are not planning to just fire miles and then start searching. If not, we'd be better off giving him another season and figuring things out over the next year. One more year of mediocrity (and hanging onto this recruiting class) would be better than a 5 year experiment with an unproven up-and-comer.
This post was edited on 11/23/15 at 11:44 am
Posted by south bama tiger
Member since May 2008
6646 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:42 am to
In short, LSU will not be hiring an obvious upgrade. It will hire someone with the risk of them being way worse than Miles.
Posted by LSUFreek
Greater New Orleans
Member since Jan 2007
14731 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:43 am to
quote:

Nebraska is a shell of what it once was.

Osborne retire after the 1998 Orange Bowl win and fans thought they would easily get the next "Osborne" but instead got their program decimated, because hiring coaches is a crap shoot.

quote:

Auburn has won 2 NCs under Chizik/Malzahn.

While it turned out nicely, the Chizik hire was initially perceived by Barners as one of the worst hires ever. Proving my point: fans don't get who they wish for.

quote:

Michigan now has Harbaugh.

After 19 years of suck, I guess they are allowed to finally get it right for the fans.

quote:

Tennessee would have been fine had Kiffin not left (re: he was not fired).

His record was mediocre at Tenn and got his arse fired at USC for being mediocre with reduced numbers but quality athletes. Still UT hasn't gotten it right in the past 7 years since Fulmer left.

quote:

Notre Dame went to a NC game and is in the CFP hunt this year.

Notre Dame sucked for 14 years before Kelly.

quote:

USC was hit with one of the worst penalties outside of the death penalty.

No excuse. Since 2008 they had recruiting classes ranked 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 9th, 13th, 10th, & 2nd over all. It was piss-poor Head coaching hires that up-ended them.

quote:

Bama now has Nick Saban.

It took them 25 years of mediocrity to find Bear Bryant's equivalent.
Posted by DollaChoppa
I Simp for ACC
Member since May 2008
84774 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:43 am to
quote:

i hope LSU has somebody good (Jimbo) pretty much lined up and are not planning to just fire miles and then start searching. If not, we'd be better off giving him another season and figuring things out over the next year.


I think this is the logic.

There are guys available now that are good fits. But you know if Miles announces that he will retire after 2016, it would set us up real nice with applicants
Posted by DollaChoppa
I Simp for ACC
Member since May 2008
84774 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:44 am to
quote:

It will hire someone with the risk of them being way worse than Miles.


And if that happens, we will win the same number of SEC titles as we would in the future with Miles
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59040 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:49 am to
quote:

And if that happens, we will win the same number of SEC titles as we would in the future with Miles


i get the pessimism, especially in light of the the last 3 weeks, but a) you don't know that and B) getting on the hire/fire merry-go-round can cost a lot more than games, it can cost a lot of money and as the program slides, so does revenue.

Again I'm not opposed to a change now, but be prepared, it could be a long decade
Posted by Dizz
Member since May 2008
14718 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:49 am to
If Alleva does not have someone lined up, then this whole situation has been handled horribly and he should be fired.
Posted by DollaChoppa
I Simp for ACC
Member since May 2008
84774 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 11:54 am to
quote:

If Alleva does not have someone lined up, then this whole situation has been handled horribly and he should be fired.


Agree unless he doesnt have someone lined up but Miles announces he will retire after next year
Posted by Feral
Member since Mar 2012
12373 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 12:00 pm to
quote:

Auburn has won 2 NCs under Chizik/Malzahn.


Say what?
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59040 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 12:06 pm to
quote:

sborne retire after the 1998 Orange Bowl win and fans thought they would easily get the next "Osborne" but instead got their program decimated, because hiring coaches is a crap shoot.


actually when TO retired they promoted Solich who was the DC. Osborne was also promoted from with in when he got the job after Bob Devany. It was after Solich fell short and they fired him after a 9-3 year that they started the coaching death spiral. But Nebraska is in a tough spot with no recruiting base and limited resources.

quote:

After 19 years of suck, I guess they are allowed to finally get it right for the fans.


a bit of an exaggeration. Gary Moeller replaced Bo after he retired in 89. Moeller resigned after a DWI or something like that after the 94 season and was replaced by Carr , who when you look back wasn't all that different from Miles, he won a NC in 97, then had a bunch of 9-4, 10-3 type years. Made a run in 2006 but lost a close one to tOSU and was pushed out the next year. It was then, with RichRod and Hoke that things fell apart before Harbaugh. So 2008-2014, not 19 years.

quote:

Still UT hasn't gotten it right in the past 7 years since Fulmer left.


For his first 8years or so, Tenn was a top 5 program, won a NC in 98, then in 2001 they were #2 heavy favorites in the SEC CG and would have been in BCS CG but they were upset by LSU. From 2002-08, they made the SEC CG just twice losing both (04 and 07, to be fair 04 Auburn went undefeated and 07 LSU won the NC) but didn't really sniff even a BCS Bowl. So that's over 10 years with out a SEC Title and 9 or so without even a BCS Bowl. It was time for a change, but that is a case study in if you mess up the hire, it can spiral down.
This post was edited on 11/23/15 at 12:08 pm
Posted by StinkBait72
Member since Nov 2011
2057 posts
Posted on 11/23/15 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

My only problem with is that everyone wants to win now and this fan base can't handle 6 years of wandering around the coaching wasteland to get the right guy.


I feel sorry for the next coach already. Will he ever be given a real chance to get a new system fully in place.
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