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Message
Shelf life of coaches these days - 5 years, what's too long 10 years
Posted on 1/6/15 at 11:24 am
Posted on 1/6/15 at 11:24 am
the jobs have become coach eaters.
Look what happened to Urban Meyer and Mack Brown.
Look at what is going on with Stoops at OU and Richt at UGA.
Les Miles is in the same boat.
Saban probably has the right mindset, changing every 5 years before Bama job. Now he is in year 7 and still winning big but two years without a title in Tuscaloosa is not what they want.
NFL lives are even shorter, what will Sean Payton face next offseason with another year like this one.
Look what happened to Urban Meyer and Mack Brown.
Look at what is going on with Stoops at OU and Richt at UGA.
Les Miles is in the same boat.
Saban probably has the right mindset, changing every 5 years before Bama job. Now he is in year 7 and still winning big but two years without a title in Tuscaloosa is not what they want.
NFL lives are even shorter, what will Sean Payton face next offseason with another year like this one.
3
Posted on 1/6/15 at 11:29 am to nicholastiger
The days of Bowden and Paterno are gone.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 11:42 am to nicholastiger
And the fans and boosters that push them out are morons.
I think Nick Saban has changed the landscape for the worse. Win a championship now and often or get the frick out. It's a terrible, terrible mindset for college football and is contributing to the quickly evolving business model that uses student-athletes, booster money, and universities as a means for profit.
Les Miles is a great coach. So is Mark Richt. So is Bob Stoops. Guys that can win 9+ games almost every year and every 3-4 years put together a team that can make a run at the championship. You want that as your head coach. Nick Saban is an anomaly.
Auburn made the huge mistake of firing Tommy Tuberville. Did they get their championship? Yeah. But at what cost? Gene Chizik was a terrible CEO and let the program spin out of control. Gus Malzahn seems like a great hire, but it's still an unknown. Auburn's essentially been hard to predict and rely on since 2009. Would that have been the case if they kept the Tuberville machine rolling? No. He would have fixed 2008. Hell, 2008 wasn't even as bad as people thought. Auburn lost 4 of those games by 6 points or less and one by 10. But in every one of those 5 losses, the game could have swung the other way in the fourth quarter. Only two of those losses were sure-thing losses, and even the WVU game was winnable late in the 3rd.
10 years isn't too long. It's too long when the coach gets tired and slips. Richt is still doing exactly what he's done since he got to Georgia. Miles too. I guarantee in two years, LSU is a preseason top 5 team with a killer defense. Stoops will be back in a BCS bowl (whatever they're called now) in the next 2-3 years.
EDIT - Not to say that Saban is doing anything wrong. He's just winning so much at such a high level that it's making other schools think they have to catch up with that kind of program. It's unattainable for the majority of programs.
I think Nick Saban has changed the landscape for the worse. Win a championship now and often or get the frick out. It's a terrible, terrible mindset for college football and is contributing to the quickly evolving business model that uses student-athletes, booster money, and universities as a means for profit.
Les Miles is a great coach. So is Mark Richt. So is Bob Stoops. Guys that can win 9+ games almost every year and every 3-4 years put together a team that can make a run at the championship. You want that as your head coach. Nick Saban is an anomaly.
Auburn made the huge mistake of firing Tommy Tuberville. Did they get their championship? Yeah. But at what cost? Gene Chizik was a terrible CEO and let the program spin out of control. Gus Malzahn seems like a great hire, but it's still an unknown. Auburn's essentially been hard to predict and rely on since 2009. Would that have been the case if they kept the Tuberville machine rolling? No. He would have fixed 2008. Hell, 2008 wasn't even as bad as people thought. Auburn lost 4 of those games by 6 points or less and one by 10. But in every one of those 5 losses, the game could have swung the other way in the fourth quarter. Only two of those losses were sure-thing losses, and even the WVU game was winnable late in the 3rd.
10 years isn't too long. It's too long when the coach gets tired and slips. Richt is still doing exactly what he's done since he got to Georgia. Miles too. I guarantee in two years, LSU is a preseason top 5 team with a killer defense. Stoops will be back in a BCS bowl (whatever they're called now) in the next 2-3 years.
EDIT - Not to say that Saban is doing anything wrong. He's just winning so much at such a high level that it's making other schools think they have to catch up with that kind of program. It's unattainable for the majority of programs.
This post was edited on 1/6/15 at 11:44 am
Posted on 1/6/15 at 12:12 pm to StringedInstruments
quote:
I guarantee in two years, LSU is...
This has been the rallying cry of the sunshine pumper for far too long for anyone to take it seriously.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 12:28 pm to StringedInstruments
quote:
Auburn made the huge mistake of firing Tommy Tuberville.
So making 2 NC games and winning 1 in a 4 year span is now seen as a mistake?
And it's different for each school but the landscape of college football is much different than it was in Petrino's heyday. For a vast majority of coaches and schools, a change for change's sake is sometimes a good thing. It shakes things up. Both try to move on and improve elsewhere. And we are seeing this across college and pro in various sports.
This post was edited on 1/6/15 at 12:30 pm
Posted on 1/6/15 at 12:30 pm to StringedInstruments
quote:
Guys that can win 9+ games almost every year
Sorry, but this means dick when schools schedule 2-4 cupcakes every year.
In 2015, LSU is playing McNeese St, Syracuse, Eastern Michigan, and Western Kentucky.
You're telling me that if they go 5-3 (and get to your 9 wins) vs the opponents below, it's a "great" season? Not in my book, sorry:
MSU
Auburn
South Carolina
Florida
Bama
Arkansas
Ole Miss
TAMU
Posted on 1/6/15 at 12:45 pm to okietiger
quote:
You're telling me that if they go 5-3 (and get to your 9 wins) vs the opponents below, it's a "great" season?
No, I don't think that's anywhere close to what he said. The very next line after what you quoted is key to the mindset. If a coach can maintain solidly winning seasons (meaning 9-3 being a season where a losing season was of no concern) during the "down" years and sprinkle in a championship run ever 3-4 years, that's a great coach.
It's funny that even if Miles gets LSU back to the SEC championship, even wins it, and gets us in the playoffs, some people will not think any more of him. They will just drift into the shadows waiting for the next 9 win "down year". And they'll never consider the fact that being able to consider 9 wins a down year is pretty great.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 1:10 pm to GRTiger
Les last got us a major bowl win in 2007
Posted on 1/6/15 at 1:17 pm to josh336
Yep, he blundered the rematch for sure. You can't assume a coach that gets you there every 4 years is going to lose them all, though. Until he does.
Whether anyone agrees or not, a coach who wins the conference championship and gets you in the title game with relative regularity, win or lose, will not be fired. Les has yet to show that 8-9 win seasons is the norm. Given LSU's recent success, if it becomes the norm, he'll probably be fired or resign.
Whether anyone agrees or not, a coach who wins the conference championship and gets you in the title game with relative regularity, win or lose, will not be fired. Les has yet to show that 8-9 win seasons is the norm. Given LSU's recent success, if it becomes the norm, he'll probably be fired or resign.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 1:23 pm to GRTiger
quote:
No, I don't think that's anywhere close to what he said. The very next line after what you quoted is key to the mindset. If a coach can maintain solidly winning seasons (meaning 9-3 being a season where a losing season was of no concern) during the "down" years and sprinkle in a championship run ever 3-4 years, that's a great coach.
Then Les better be in the championship late in the season 1 of the next 2 seasons or he no longer qualifies:
2007 - Won it all
2008 - Out of it early (finished 8-5)
2009 - Out of it by early November
2010 - In the hunt
2011 - Went to BCS Champ. game
2012 - Out of it by early November
2013 - Out of it by middle of October
2014 - Out of it by early October
2015 - ???
2016 - ???
Posted on 1/6/15 at 1:29 pm to okietiger
Agreed. The success over the last 15 years, in which he played no small part, has raised the bar on expectations. I just choose not to overreact every time he loses a game or has a down year. Another year like this one, and he could fall either way. A third in a row, and it's over for him.
The fact that people wanted him gone after last year, and even after 2012, is insane to me.
edit: Just to clarify, no matter what he does, he should still be considered a great coach overall. He would just be looked at every other great coach that didn't ride off into the sunset on the back of a championship.
The fact that people wanted him gone after last year, and even after 2012, is insane to me.
edit: Just to clarify, no matter what he does, he should still be considered a great coach overall. He would just be looked at every other great coach that didn't ride off into the sunset on the back of a championship.
This post was edited on 1/6/15 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 1/6/15 at 1:42 pm to GRTiger
I really do try to look at these things objectively, but I do believe the next 2 years will be pivotal for Miles.
The seemingly never ending QB issues continue to concern me.
One cannot refute the fact that Les has never successfully recruited a successful LSU QB. Perrilloux probably would have caused that statement to be false if he wasn't an idiot, but still, he was kicked off the team almost 7 years ago now.
The seemingly never ending QB issues continue to concern me.
One cannot refute the fact that Les has never successfully recruited a successful LSU QB. Perrilloux probably would have caused that statement to be false if he wasn't an idiot, but still, he was kicked off the team almost 7 years ago now.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 1:49 pm to okietiger
quote:
I really do try to look at these things objectively, but I do believe the next 2 years will be pivotal for Miles.
The seemingly never ending QB issues continue to concern me.
One cannot refute the fact that Les has never successfully recruited a successful LSU QB. Perrilloux probably would have caused that statement to be false if he wasn't an idiot, but still, he was kicked off the team almost 7 years ago now.
All of this is true. Les needs an SEC championship in the next two years (which should put us in the Playoff).
Posted on 1/6/15 at 1:56 pm to okietiger
quote:
One cannot refute the fact that Les has never successfully recruited a successful LSU QB. Perrilloux probably would have caused that statement to be false if he wasn't an idiot, but still, he was kicked off the team almost 7 years ago now.
Absolutely, and what's worse, it hasn't been for lack of HS talent coming on campus, at least on paper (just to slightly tweak the "never successfully recruited" part).
Posted on 1/6/15 at 2:39 pm to etm512
So making 2 NC games and winning 1 in a 4 year span is now seen as a mistake?
Looking back, at the time of the firing, yes, it was a mistake. There was no reason to fire him. Auburn has been lucky to land Malzahn at OC with Cam Newton at QB and then to find Malzahn available again when Chizik left the program in shambles.
I'm just curious when looking at college football history, what more do fans expect? Looking throughout LSU's history, do you really think LSU can do better than Miles?
Even when Saban was at LSU, his records were:
8-4
10-3 (SEC champs but with 3 SEC losses)
8-5
13-1
9-3
Do you have any examples of this working? Such as a program like LSU with Miles getting rid of a coach like Miles and achieving a higher level of success over a longer period of time?
Looking back, at the time of the firing, yes, it was a mistake. There was no reason to fire him. Auburn has been lucky to land Malzahn at OC with Cam Newton at QB and then to find Malzahn available again when Chizik left the program in shambles.
I'm just curious when looking at college football history, what more do fans expect? Looking throughout LSU's history, do you really think LSU can do better than Miles?
Even when Saban was at LSU, his records were:
8-4
10-3 (SEC champs but with 3 SEC losses)
8-5
13-1
9-3
quote:
For a vast majority of coaches and schools, a change for change's sake is sometimes a good thing. It shakes things up. Both try to move on and improve elsewhere.
Do you have any examples of this working? Such as a program like LSU with Miles getting rid of a coach like Miles and achieving a higher level of success over a longer period of time?
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:17 pm to josh336
quote:
Les last got us a major bowl win in 2007
Doesn't 2011 count?
This post was edited on 1/6/15 at 4:18 pm
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:27 pm to okietiger
quote:
2012 - Out of it by early November
Had LSU beaten Bama that year, they would have possible gone to the SEC Championship game, so I differ that the team not making it was totally on the shoulders of Les Miles. I seem to remember some other factors that played in the mix.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 7:10 pm to nicholastiger
Don't forget the multi million dollar salaries. I'd do it.
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