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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/22 at 10:59 pm
[quote]is this storm somewhat atypical in it's development? [/quote] It seems like we have seen a number of systems like this over the past few seasons - systems that would be slam dunk OTS with fast development but they just never really get going, just stay weak, and keep moving west of what th...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/22 at 10:13 pm
The 00z CIMSS analysis has the vort max a bit SW of where the 18z GFS has it at 00z. It's kind of splitting hairs but this is a complicated setup and a couple hundred of miles in one direction or the other could be the deciding factor. The image below is outdated (from this mornings 06z GFS) but i...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/22 at 9:25 pm
[quote] then i posted the updated one (that you quoted in your post). [/quote] Ok, but the straight line going to Texas, that is XTRP. You can see the CMC2 shift around before heading straight towards New Orleans. It was just funny to sit down for the first time this evening and see an argument...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/22 at 9:22 pm
[quote]Keep fighting the good fight[/quote] He is posting updates for free... so what is your deal?...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/22 at 9:14 pm
[quote]And that same model track that ran through NOLA this morning was also labelled XTRP on stormpulse.[b] I'm no expert[/b][/quote] It doesn't take an expert to see that one of those lines isn't like the others :lol: [img]http://i60.tinypic.com/2mzl3ls.png[/img]...

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re: Homebrewing: In-Process Thread
Posted by rds dc on 8/22 at 12:35 pm
[quote]I figure if my saison sucks then I will drop a couple ounces of hops into it to dry hop in the keg [/quote] I love to dry hop saisons (and all my brews pretty much). It is almost like getting a 2 for 1 as the dry hop fades. I've been especially pleased using this technique with my Brett ...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/22 at 9:20 am
A few things from the 12z CIMSS analysis: [img]http://i58.tinypic.com/2i0qdue.png[/img] [img]http://i59.tinypic.com/24fxtow.png[/img] [img]http://i58.tinypic.com/mmwt40.png[/img] ...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/22 at 8:02 am
[quote]I'm not even going to pretend to know whats going to happen with this thing[/quote] Yeah, I'm sure there is some heated debates at NHC over this one. It is a tricky forecast for sure and it looks like it could be a close call either way. [img]http://i61.tinypic.com/2622i4k.png[/img] ...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/22 at 12:27 am
[quote]cause there's just so much uncertainty. [/quote] Yeah, until there is a defined LLC there will be a lot of options on the table. There are multiple vorts circulating around a broad "center" of circulation. It looked like there was one SE of Puerto Rico this evening, if that became the do...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/22 at 12:18 am
[quote]GEAUXmedic[/quote] It's odd, the Canadian has shown improvement with the mid-lat 500 mb since the upgrade but still blows in the tropics. ...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/22 at 12:05 am
[quote]OTS KW OTC MDR[/quote] OTS - Out to Sea - refers to a system curving away from North American out into the Atlantic KW - Kelvin Wave - an equatorial wave that is on a smaller scale than the MJO. Tends to increase convection as it propagates eastwards. This increased convection c...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/21 at 11:57 pm
[quote]Is there a link that lists some of the acronyms you use?[/quote] I think Gueax posted something in the OP. What are you wondering about?...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/21 at 11:50 pm
Everyone should avoid looking at the 00z Canadian model :lol:...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/21 at 10:29 pm
There isn't much to comment on tonight. 96L is still a disorganized mess and looks like crap. The latest KW has been a bit slow with its eastward propagation but 96L might get a bump from it over the next 2 or 3 days. The models have trended pretty hard to an OTS solution over the past 24 hours...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/21 at 11:09 am
[quote]never was a threat to the GOM[/quote] Interesting take, what indicators were you looking at over the past few days to determine that the Day 7 500 mb would change slightly but enough to favor OTC? Climo certainly indicated that this could be a Gulf threat. The predicted ensemble mean 500 m...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/21 at 9:28 am
[quote]Jim Rockford[/quote] Nice shift in the models over the past 24 hrs. The high latitude blocking is keeping that EC trough from moving out too fast. The models have trended slightly stronger with the trough and weaker with the ridge. This has opened up an escape route for 96L. The Euro E...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/20 at 9:33 am
[quote]I lived in a trailer during Rita.[/quote] The same trailer you were going to put me up in :lol:...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/20 at 8:23 am
[quote]It appears that 96L and the wave behind it will merge. [/quote] There are two tropical waves moving to the north of the monsoon trough. One is entering the islands and the 2nd is the area of your red line but more towards the NW and not extending down into the trough. The best convection...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/20 at 12:31 am
[quote]so...is this thing likely to be a hurricane or no?[/quote] Who knows but the next few days could have the most favorable conditions so far this season across the Atlantic. [quote]As well, what difference does forming there make from forming off the coast of Africa?[/quote] Usually ju...

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re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread - Invest 96L; possible gulf threat
Posted by rds dc on 8/20 at 12:24 am
[quote]Thats what I meant.. it doesn't have a designated position.. still working on little sleep sry.[/quote] Cool, people just tend to throw out "poor initialization" a lot and that doesn't happen very often with the new data assimilation schemes that the models use. You will still see a model...

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