How much of the new housing "boom" is real vs. speculation?
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How much of the new housing "boom" is real vs. speculation?
Posted by TejasHorn on 6/25 at 3:30 pm

Blackstone, which helped define a period of Wall Street hyperwealth, has bought some 26,000 homes in nine states. Colony Capital, a Los Angeles-based investment firm, is spending $250 million each month and already owns 10,000 properties.

With little fanfare, these and other financial companies have become significant landlords on Main Street. Most of the firms are renting out the homes, with the possibility of unloading them at a profit when prices rise far enough.


This post was edited on 6/25 at 3:30 pm

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Posted by fishfighter on 6/25 at 3:34 pm to TejasHorn
In my area/parish, I had talked to someone in the know as to how many new building permits were giving out from the first of this year. Not even a month ago, new permits are down close to 17% for the year.

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Posted by TheDiesel on 6/25 at 3:36 pm to TejasHorn
I'm sure it depends on the location. They can't built residences fast enough in Houston to keep up with everyone moving here.

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Posted by Cmlsu5618 on 6/25 at 3:44 pm to TheDiesel
There will be a slowdown in home prices after this re-finacing/structuring settles. IMO it's not hard to see. I think the employment hotspots have a nice buffer from this.

The market has been fully propped up from it's broken legs in 2008.

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Posted by ItNeverRains on 6/25 at 3:51 pm to Cmlsu5618
Depends on market. Despite the re-boom, housing prices in TN are still depressed from pre crash levels. Interest rates as of the last two weeks are now about level. The price of materials have not gone down, and supply is at an all time low. New construction here is through the roof.

Williamson County, TN is expected to add 150k jobs in the next 5 years. Assuming we hit 75% of that target, there is not even close of enough supply, so my opinion is we'll see no slow down whatsoever, and that home prices are still healthy, and rates are becoming healthier every day

This post was edited on 6/25 at 7:25 pm

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Posted by BayouBengal on 6/25 at 4:01 pm to TejasHorn
In Houston, the 0 day inventory is really low. Job growth seems to be supporting the levels as well. Houston even passed an ordinance allowing for higher density homes to be build outside of 610 but inside B8.

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Posted by I Love Bama on 6/25 at 4:01 pm to ItNeverRains
Some markets are building bubbles again though. Tons of asian cash flowing into speculative investments right now in vegas. I can see the bottom falling out again in markets where the end user is not the owner occupant

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Posted by guttata on 6/25 at 4:15 pm to I Love Bama
It's 37% boom and 63% speculation. Not sure how much that helps you.

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Posted by I Love Bama on 6/25 at 4:16 pm to guttata

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Posted by foshizzle on 6/25 at 4:30 pm to TejasHorn
I don't know what you mean by "real" vs. "speculation". It's all price movements.

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Posted by bayoubengal03 on 6/25 at 10:15 pm to TejasHorn
Major tract builders have consolidated the market since the bust and they are building in all the markets you would expect. Major metros in the southeast and thru the sunbelt. Only area of concern would be Phoenix/Vegas because of the inflow of foreign speculation. But they are forecast to have good population growth, so maybe it can be sustained.

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Posted by GenesChin on 6/25 at 10:43 pm to bayoubengal03
Used to live in Phoenix and family still does. The outlook does not look nearly as promising as pre housing meltdown.

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Posted by ThaBigFella on 6/25 at 10:47 pm to bayoubengal03
See on one hand I want to say a bust is coming but I can't because there are so many cash buyers and tons who've locked in ridiculously low rates that I just feel they can sit on the property and don't have to sell like those with bad adjustable rate loans in 2008. These guys are all cash or fixed rate loans.

I have been shopping around south florida for a place to buy and Miami prices are going bonkers but the rentals are so far below market it's comical. Literally condos that are $1.5M are renting for $4500/month and I mean those condos have $3500/month in maintenance fees + taxes. The condos being bought are all by argentinian,venezuelan,brazilian and european buyers but there are no renters since the locals cannot afford the subsequent rents along the beach.

I just can't see these people taking a loss on cash which is what the realtor I've been working with told me is the difference this time. EVERYONE is paying cash and my realtor is a friend of mine for over 20 years so it's not someone spewing BS to me, but that cash isn't american cash.

I would love for the miami bubble to burst bc I know some people in the building Im looking at who paid $750K in 2010 for units that are $1.7M today its ridiculous. Damn foreigners driving prices into the stratosphere.

I will say if you're seeking to work from home and rent a ridiculous unit for cheap, miami is perfect. Dallas on the other hand, a $400,000 home will fetch $4k so in terms of rental affordability texas is much more expensive than miami where the real estate is quadruple the total price.

This post was edited on 6/25 at 10:50 pm

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Posted by LSUGrrrl on 6/25 at 10:55 pm to BayouBengal
Frisco, TX housing boom is real. Other than homes with obvious issues, the turnover is very, very fast.

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Posted by ThaBigFella on 6/25 at 11:24 pm to LSUGrrrl
Just read this piece that makes a ton of sense in terms of what I referenced in Miami.


I'm 34 and don't have student loans and have a pretty high paying job and I think people like me are few and far between, the younger generation has a higher unemployment rate and more student debt than ever. I heard on fox news today georgetown is $66,000/year for tuition and board....YIKES.....I really don't know how this ends but I think the fall will be smoother with all the cash and cheap fixed rate loans involved.

I go back and forth between dallas and miami for work and both places real estate is going bonkers, I just don't know what to think anymore.

This post was edited on 6/25 at 11:25 pm

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Posted by bayoubengal03 on 6/26 at 4:43 am to ThaBigFella
Yeah, Florida as a whole is a strong market as are the Texas Metros. If you look at single family starts they have been relatively flat since the end of last year. It's been movement in multifamily that has really moved the needle, that being said May single family were still up ~25% over prior year. We just haven't seen the late spring increases that people were expecting.

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Posted by ThaBigFella on 6/26 at 7:30 am to bayoubengal03
Ya totally agree what I'm saying is Miami may as well be a foreign country. Americans cannot afford Miami beach or south beach which starts at $1000/sq ft and goes to $5000/sq ft but all the wealthy south Americans,Europeans,and Mexicans are buying everything yet every realtor wants to tell you how hot it is.....the realty is very few working in the US can afford them and the city has no economy so rentals that should be $15000/month on $2m condos are a laughable $4500 and barely net a return if they're even rented. Inflation in Argentina,dictators in Venezuela and a horrible situation in Europe are turning nice American properties into a playground for foreign elite and it's really hurting the average American who can't keep up

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Posted by jimbeam on 6/26 at 8:05 am to I Love Bama
gets me every time

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Posted by ThaBigFella on 6/26 at 9:48 am to jimbeam
Just saw a guy on Fox business discussing New York City and the takasimaya? building or whatever that just leased for the highest price EVER in America at $3000/sf a year on 5th avenue in new york. He discussed the inflow of sovereign money from Japan, brazil,argentina,venezuela......looks like they face the same issues as Miami!

This post was edited on 6/26 at 9:49 am

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Posted by bayoubengal03 on 6/26 at 10:24 am to ThaBigFella
I see what your saying and I agree. Wish I would have been out of college for a few more years when the bust happened, would have had a better looking savings account…..could have picked up a condo on the cheap.

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