Too Early For A Mock Draft?
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re: Too Early For A Mock Draft?
Posted by blueslover on 10/5 at 11:11 am to SuperSoakher
You can cherry pick a team of guys drafted 2nd Rd or later that would win a Super Bowl. Historical data shows that the success of level of 1-10 picks is higher than past #20 tho. Making the right pick at every level is crucial for success. The higher the pick is though the higher the expectation level is as well.

Cameron Jordan is a great example. As a #24 I thought he was a solid pick and good value. The expectation level for him is nowhere near what was (and has proven right for) #7 Aldon Smith or #11 JJ Watt tho.

Not sure if we even disagree or if it is just semantics



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Posted by SuperSoakher on 10/5 at 11:24 am to blueslover
I'm not sure either but I posted this thought in another thread.

I agree top pick gives you the chance to get a better player. Basketball for instance, the top picks can give you a franchise changer (ie Lebron, Melo, Wade, Bosh, and the frick up Milicic). In basketball the chasm is huge because after the top ten, even five, you're chances fall greatly.

Football has so many more people in the draft and so many more positions availabe for you that picking outside the top 10 (i'm only talking first rounders, all the guys i listed were before pick 32) can still land you great talent.

Take 2005 for example, the 49ers were guaranteed to take a qb, the wuestion was will it be Alex Smith or Aaron Rodgers. Both were possible number 1, yet one of them went to 24. No one else drafted a qb, and he fell that far. This past year, qbs went 1 2 with Luck and Griffin.



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Posted by SuperSoakher on 10/5 at 11:28 am to SuperSoakher
The saints have a good team, the suspensions and bounty scandal ruined this season (so far).

If the saints get a top 10 pick, I personally would hope they trade back and get more picks to be able to get more players. They dont need a risk on a franchise player in the top, they need great defensive help and they can get that drafting back. Yea they wont be able to land Montgomery, Jones, or Keke but im sure their is great safeties and linebackers that will fall.


This post was edited on 10/5 at 11:29 am

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Posted by blueslover on 10/5 at 11:38 am to SuperSoakher
okay that's clearer. Agree for the most part but the finding of day one starter/high impact players, if not full fledged franchise changers is more probable the higher the pick is. This is even stronger for the more vital LT and pass rushers in value ratings. A premier LB or safety might slip into second half 1st Rd. A highly rated OT or DE/3-4OLB will rarely ever slip in draft spot unless for known reason.


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Posted by Brettesaurus Rex on 10/5 at 11:48 am to SaintLSUnAtl
If we're picking at 9, I wouldn't want to trade the pick unless we only move back a few spots and then pick up another 2nd rounder or something. We need an impact player in the worst way on the D-line in Spags system. Without it, you see the backend looking a lot worse than it is because you can only cover guys for so long when the front four rush never gets there

This post was edited on 10/5 at 11:49 am

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Posted by DoubleDown on 10/5 at 11:53 am to lsufanguy
Does Sam Montgomery fit NO's defensive scheme as a DE? Serious question...

ETA: What did the NFL strip draft wise from NO in 2013? Wasn't it a 2nd rounder?


This post was edited on 10/5 at 11:55 am

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Posted by Hoodoo Man on 10/5 at 11:58 am to DoubleDown
quote:

ETA: What did the NFL strip draft wise from NO in 2013? Wasn't it a 2nd rounder?

Yeah, but Goodell said we might get it back.
Which will happen for PR reasons.



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Posted by DoubleDown on 10/5 at 12:00 pm to Hoodoo Man
Yea - not being a falcons fan/homer - that does seem a bit harsh.


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Posted by blueslover on 10/5 at 12:04 pm to DoubleDown
Montgomery is a fit IMO, looks 4-3 prototypical. Still a lotta ball to be played to weigh in on draft stock tho. A lotta season to see where the 1st will be at too. Who you consider at before #10 is a different group then who is likely after #20


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Posted by St Augustine on 10/5 at 12:15 pm to Brettesaurus Rex
Agreed. To hell with trading back at this point. I want a damn stud player/close to sure thing on the defense.


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Posted by St Augustine on 10/5 at 12:20 pm to Brettesaurus Rex
Agreed. To hell with trading back at this point. I want a damn stud player/close to sure thing on the defense.


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Posted by blueslover on 10/5 at 12:20 pm to St Augustine
they're in pretty decent position IMO

Ellis + Smith is $16mil net to spend, add Harper and yer +$20mil net. Some holes to fill but with $15-20mil and a better 1st Rd choice, I'll take that



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Posted by St Augustine on 10/5 at 12:21 pm to Hoodoo Man
quote:

Yeah, but Goodell said we might get it back. Which will happen for PR reasons.


Someone agrees with me!!!



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Posted by Hoodoo Man on 10/5 at 12:25 pm to St Augustine
You like me now.

Just wait until I say something positive about an LSU D-lineman.



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Posted by St Augustine on 10/5 at 12:57 pm to Hoodoo Man


I think they're great college players and could be good pros. I just don't trust a high 1st rounder on them.



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Posted by St Augustine on 10/5 at 1:04 pm to Hoodoo Man


I think they're great college players and could be good pros. I just don't trust a high 1st rounder on them.



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Posted by SuperSoakher on 10/5 at 1:42 pm to St Augustine
quote:

Agreed. To hell with trading back at this point. I want a damn stud player/close to sure thing on the defense.


There's no such thing as a sure thing.

Remember when the saints traded 2 first rounders to move up to number 6 in the 03 draft.

We got: Jonathan Sullivan

Could've had: Calvin Pace, Nnamdi Asomugha



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Posted by xxKylexx on 10/5 at 10:57 pm to lsufanguy
Bjoern Werner or Manti Te'o please.


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Posted by LooseCannon22282 on 10/6 at 12:06 am to lsufanguy
quote:

Too Early For A Mock Draft?


yeah.

but you know, some co-workers and I plan on going to a restaurant where Phil Savage does his radio show every Monday. He is the executive director of the Senior Bowl and former GM of the Cleveland Browns. I'll ask him a few questions about the Saints. I'm sure even he wouldn't have a clue on where a player would go in the draft or much less where a team will be picking in the draft at this point.


This post was edited on 10/6 at 12:09 am

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Posted by THRILLHO on 10/6 at 12:32 am to lsufanguy
quote:

round 3:

quote:
New Orleans Saints: Akeem Spence, DT, Illinois


I think we should spend every third round pick on talented DTs named Akiem/Akeem and then never play them in favor of some fat piece of shite that isn't even trying to play well in a contract year.



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