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 59 of 60 weeks and counting on jobless numbers...Posted by udtiger 388K from upwardly revised 389K (from 386K).  on 4/26 at 8:05 amReported as...class....a DECLINE in first time jobless claims. LINK Shameless. This post was edited on 4/26 at 9:23 am Reply • Back to Top |
| I would love to see a graph with the initial job numbers and the revised numbers. I looked around last week and couldn't find anything... Reply • Back to Top |
| But it was an unexpected occurrence, so it won't be publicized by the media. This post was edited on 4/26 at 8:11 am Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by baybeefeetz on 4/26 at 8:10 am to udtiger What is your issue here? You go like 4 paragraphs into the article and it's talking about the rising moving average. Headline is neutral at best, but negative to me. I get that the numbers are revised upward every time. Okay. It doesn't seem to me that the reporting here is manipulative. Is this article better? Granted, it's a few weeks old This post was edited on 4/26 at 8:13 am Reply • Back to Top |
quote: Seems like a statistical anomaly to always revise the numbers up. Perhaps there is an issue with the way they collect the data that is not scientifically sound? Reply • Back to Top |
quote:  Just As Predicted, Initial Claims Miss Huge, Yet Magically Improve quote:  Reply • Back to Top |
quote:Indeed. Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by baybeefeetz on 4/26 at 8:54 am to The Easter Bunny quote: Maybe they should just wait and announce it the following week, after the dust clears. I think this has been said here on many occasions. I don't thin the gov't is monitoring this site, though. Reply • Back to Top |
quote: Awesome  Reply • Back to Top |
| So, they revise the previous week upward and report a decline this week when in reality, they are steady or rising. Rinse and repeat. Amazing. Reply • Back to Top |
| That is a good one, I was thinking more along the lines of a bar graph by week in 3d with the initial numbers and anther bar graph behind it with the revised numbers. That way we could see, not only the revisions but the trend of if the numbers are increasing or decreasing and by how much... Reply • Back to Top |
quote: Yep. But you would think in an honest statistical analysis over time there would be an equal number of downward and upward revision from the previous week. We are not seeing this. We are seeing only (58 out of 59) upward revisions of the previous week so the media can tout this week as "improvement". It is propaganda at it's finest. Reply • Back to Top |
quote: I could do this in a jiffy, but I need the source data. I don't know where I can find it easily. I've tried the BLS website, but I couldn't find the un-revised numbers. Maybe I did not dig deep enough. Reply • Back to Top |
| Just nitpicking here but it's actually 59 of the last 60 weeks. And a total net increase of ~30,000 over the last 5 weeks. Reply • Back to Top |
quote: I bet #AttackWatch is  Reply • Back to Top |
quote: if your model has residuals that are all positive....(y-yhat)....wtf kind of model is that? Might as well just make up numbers instead. Reply • Back to Top |
quote: Sorry...I lost count. I will revise. Reply • Back to Top |
quote: No problem, I thought it was 58 of 59 as well until I read about it somewhere else. Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by Delicious Tacos on 4/26 at 9:52 am to MFn GIMP Our economy would be BOOMING right now if McCain was president! Can say 0% unemployment? Reply • Back to Top |
quote: No. The original numbers went into the memory hole. Reply • Back to Top • Refresh |
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