Apple up over 10% and $47 since last week....what do we see first $500 or $400
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re: Apple up over 10% and $47 since last week....what do we see first $500 or $400
Posted by ThaBigFella on 5/6 at 3:18 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
did i mess up somewhere? I see 23.6% of $385 would be @ $475???


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Posted by Waffle House on 5/6 at 3:22 pm to ThaBigFella
I think it is 23.6% of the spread between the 52 week H and L.


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Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets on 5/6 at 3:28 pm to Waffle House
quote:

I think it is 23.6% of the spread between the 52 week H and L.

This.

High - 705.07
Low - 385.10
Spread - 319.97

23.6% of 319.97 = 75.51
75.51 + 395.10 = 460.62

38.2% of the spread = 122.23
395.10 + 122.23 = 507.33



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Posted by Korkstand on 5/6 at 3:38 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
Also note that these fib levels seem to be significant on shorter time scales, as well. Many "corrections" during movements tend to touch these percentages of the amount of the move. Make sense?


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Posted by ThaBigFella on 5/6 at 3:58 pm to Korkstand
ah gotcha! Like I said Im a buy and hold type, I don't have the balls or time to daytrade with work, but this is some pretty cool stuff, thats awesome

Thanks for teaching me, so my biggest holding is Phillip Morris, its nearly 50% of my holdings, im in from $39 til now so all my shares are avg like $64 anyways

so what are all the resistance points by percentages? and what comes after the last one? For PM I get a 23.6% of around $85 which its way past right at $93



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Posted by Korkstand on 5/6 at 4:35 pm to ThaBigFella
I'm not an expert by any means, but from what I can gather the technical analysts essentially have a method to draw a line pretty much anywhere on the chart. You have these fib levels, your various moving averages, trendlines, etc. So, at any given time they can say "look for such and such when the stock approaches price X", and X can be anything.

In the case of PM, what stands out to me is the "double top" where it tried (and failed) to get very far above $96 twice in the last month. To the technical analyst (TA here on out), this looks like strong "resistance", and now does not appear to be a good time to buy for a mid to long term position. However, another thing that stands out is that PM has been getting strong "support" from the 50-day moving average, having bounced off of it 3 times since February, and is as of today possibly bouncing for a 4th time.

So, as a novice TA, I would say that if PM dips down below the 50-day MA in the next couple of days ($92.50 or so), then look for it to make a considerable move further down. If it instead bounces back up in the next few days back toward $96, then that would be the next time to watch. The support and resistance will continue to "squeeze" the chart into that pennant pattern. Generally, whatever happens in the days following PM either breaking above $96, or below the MA, would be an indication to the TA as to the direction of the next short/mid term trend.



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Posted by ThaBigFella on 5/6 at 4:52 pm to Korkstand
gotcha...the reason i bought more is the dividend should be close to $4 when they boost it in september so im not worried about the price today, if it drops any lower it will be an insane price to dividend....Phillip Morris is my bank account, i have sooo many shares and ill hold it till i die, best run company on earth and over the past 50 years with altria combined to be the best performing stock.......im in the convenience store business and although PM doesn't deal with the US i see firsthand how little price increases dont affect anyone's decision to buy lol

This post was edited on 5/6 at 4:56 pm

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Posted by ThaBigFella on 5/7 at 8:34 am to ThaBigFella
so now that it couldnt hold $460 does that mean its gonna drop a lot and i should sell and buy back?

This post was edited on 5/7 at 9:13 am

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Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets on 5/8 at 11:01 am to ThaBigFella
Second try to break today, I think this one may hold as it just broke the 100DMA earlier in the day.

Wait to see how the end of day trading works out. If it holds today I think it'll stick, if it doesn't I think it'll take a couple days or weeks to retest.



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Posted by ThaBigFella on 5/8 at 1:26 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
tom is ex-div day so itll go down, hopefully we can hold this! This one trade could make my year, Im in big at $414


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Posted by C on 5/9 at 8:42 am to ThaBigFella
So someone explain exdiv for me. Yesterday the stock closes at 463. Today the the stock is showing up at 462.I realize the exdiv was accounted for for those buying and selling today but I didn't think it would reset the stock price.


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Posted by LSURussian on 5/9 at 8:51 am to C
quote:

I didn't think it would reset the stock price.
It does.



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Posted by C on 5/9 at 8:59 am to LSURussian
Thanks.


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Posted by roguetiger15 on 5/9 at 9:12 am to C
it has to be adjusted at the same amount as dividend


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Posted by Cmlsu5618 on 5/15 at 9:28 am to roguetiger15
quote:

BennyAndTheInkJets


No flame by any means, but AAPL has fallen off versus your resistance point. Granted, it's short term fluctuations, and I am by no means a technical analyst, but how do you feel about the resistance point today?

I am trying to learn more about technical analysis, will always be focused on fundamentals for my investments, but I wanted to hear your thoughts.



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Posted by ThaBigFella on 5/15 at 9:42 am to Cmlsu5618
I think apple is battered from alot of profit taking after anear 20% run in 2 weeks. As a long term investment I really dont see how you could go wrong over a multi year period, every other stock on my watch list is trading at 52 week highs


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Posted by matthew25 on 5/15 at 2:18 pm to ThaBigFella
Down 20 at 424.


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Posted by ThaBigFella on 5/15 at 4:06 pm to matthew25
Benny saw this on seeking alpha today can you please explain since you're the technicals guy ........."AAPL is forming a reverse head & shoulders right now, RSI broke through resistance in late March, and the upper trend-line on the downtrend was breached in early May. My technicals are telling me AAPL is a buy at $420 with a price target of $515."


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Posted by jimbeam on 5/15 at 4:10 pm to matthew25
Thanks Obama


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Posted by Tiger n Miami AU83 on 5/15 at 4:57 pm to jimbeam
I hate technical and chart analysis personally and think it is a very poor investing tool unless you are a very frequent day trader type trying to make a quick buck.

Also, I think Apple is still overvalued personally, but we will see.



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