NFL Betting Thread Week 14
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re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14
Posted by memphstigers23 on 12/4 at 3:20 pm to SDVTiger
quote:

Yeah that Blazing 5 that would be 3-1 if Walsh didnt miss a 20yd fg or ponder throwing 3 picks in the endzone.


You can make excuses for every bet that loses...



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Posted by SDVTiger on 12/4 at 3:22 pm to memphstigers23
quote:

You can make excuses for every bet that loses..


Really?

Just stating that the guy was on the right side. Dogsheet happens thats part of it.



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Posted by Carson123987 on 12/4 at 3:22 pm to memphstigers23
exactly


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Posted by memphstigers23 on 12/4 at 3:26 pm to Carson123987
I think I'll do holes ML experiment. I don't like bball spreads Because it seems like more times than not, you get Moosed out of a cover


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Posted by SDVTiger on 12/4 at 3:28 pm to memphstigers23
quote:

holes ML experiment.





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Posted by Chef Leppard on 12/4 at 4:38 pm to Biff Tannen
Hey. Rookie question as far as teasers go. And dont fricking tease me, im sensitive

In a game like Thurs night, where i had already planned to lock the Denver -3.5 U56.5 (my site doesnt do 8pt) Would it not be smarter to turn toward the home dog in a situation like that?

I mean, i dont care if the raiders were playing a pro bowl team, I would feel obligated to take them getting 18.5 pts at home

Like I said before, Ive always just done simple bets with a local guy. I havent started playing around with these teasers and small parlays till this year


This post was edited on 12/4 at 4:39 pm

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Posted by bamafan425 on 12/4 at 4:44 pm to Chef Leppard
It's up to you. A lot of sharper guys on twitter only like to take dogs in teasers.

It's one of those things, do you feel more confident in Raiders cover 18.5 or Denvers -3.5?



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Posted by Biff Tannen on 12/4 at 5:38 pm to Chef Leppard
quote:

And dont fricking tease me, im sensitive


LuLz

new sig quote

quote:

In a game like Thurs night, where i had already planned to lock the Denver -3.5 U56.5 (my site doesnt do 8pt) Would it not be smarter to turn toward the home dog in a situation like that?


they don't let you buy a point? (read on of my last posts for an explanation)

quote:

I mean, i dont care if the raiders were playing a pro bowl team, I would feel obligated to take them getting 18.5 pts at home


excellent point, but they're turrible.. wouldn't be surprised if Peyton goes batman all over their silver and black clown asses

quote:

Like I said before, Ive always just done simple bets with a local guy. I havent started playing around with these teasers and small parlays till this year


i should have just told you to ask 425, he is way better than me at analyzing teasers

but let's try to break this game down real quick

Peyton=Christian Bale=Batman>Raiders whole team=Superman




get it?

got it?

good


This post was edited on 12/4 at 5:45 pm

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Posted by Carson123987 on 12/4 at 5:45 pm to Chef Leppard
quote:

Would it not be smarter to turn toward the home dog in a situation like that?


Do both. Thats what I did for SNF. Took Dal -2.5 and Phi +18 with O35.5



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Posted by Chef Leppard on 12/4 at 5:52 pm to Biff Tannen
My site has I think 3, 6, and 7 pt teasers.

You can do a 10pt teaser but not on multiple bets within a single game.

With McFadden coming back, I do think Oakland has enough in them for two TDs anyway. Palmer has been avg over 300yds a game.

That being said, the pressure would be on Denver to score 32 pts on the road in somewhat of a rivalry game

Just wondering what is the safer play in a game where the spread is already DD



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Posted by bamafan425 on 12/4 at 5:53 pm to Chef Leppard
I think Raiders +18.5 would be my play. Takes a lot in the NFL for a 20 point blowout.



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Posted by Ghazi on 12/5 at 8:02 am to bamafan425
True, but the Raiders have lost by 21+ 3 of the last 5 games.

I'm backing Denver -9.5 despite the 23-2 ATS trend of home dogs of 8+ over last 3 years.

Oakland's defense is miserable. in this 5 game losing streak, allowing over 7 yards per play (unheard of in NFL, college like statistic) and 38 PPG...they have absolutely no pass rush whatsoever... this was a reason I backed Denver against TB and covered (only by 1 point, but only due to backdoor was it so close). Oakland made Weeden look like Brady last week, and can't stop the run either (recall Martin's 250 yard rushing performance). All metrics indicate Oakland is the worst team in the NFL right now.

Oakland's offense hovers in the below average-average area, I don't think McFadden makes much of a difference. Palmer's having an okay year, but Denver has an elite defense and especially an elite pass rush.

I expect Manning to shred this defense. 30/38 for 338 yards in the last meeting, a 37-6 win.

I think Broncos win by 14-17 points and cover. Oakland only keeps this close with a lucky day as far as turnovers/penalties. REALLY bad football team.





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Posted by bamafan425 on 12/5 at 12:25 pm to Ghazi
Tailing BTB. He went 9-1 last weekend.

Raiders +10.5
Titans +6
Jags +3
Rams +3
Saints +5
Texans +4
Seahawks/Bucs Teaser
Also on Lions +7. Gonna wait and see if I can get that without paying juice.



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Posted by HoLeInOnEr05 on 12/5 at 12:45 pm to bamafan425
Damn, you need some doggy biscuits or something?


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Posted by bamafan425 on 12/5 at 12:47 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
Just tailing. He's been pretty stout this year.


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Posted by WRedmondsStang on 12/5 at 2:11 pm to bamafan425
BTB was also on Panthers, any reason why you left them out. If you are gonna tail, be all in.


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Posted by bamafan425 on 12/5 at 2:18 pm to WRedmondsStang
I musta missed it off my list. Fully plan on tailing him all the way.


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Posted by Biff Tannen on 12/5 at 2:34 pm to bamafan425
quote:

Raiders +10.5
Titans +6
Jags +3
Rams +3
Saints +5
Texans +4
Seahawks/Bucs Teaser
Also on Lions +7. Gonna wait and see if I can get that without paying juice.


i hate taking dogs, especially road dogs

i don't tail anybody, becuase if i'm going to lose i want it to be on my own accord

that being said, i like almost everyone of those plays..

especially Texans, Saints, Titans and Rams



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Posted by TJG210 on 12/5 at 2:57 pm to Biff Tannen
Posted this earlier, but wanted the experts opinion in here......getting down to the nitty gritty in my survivor league....I think my best options this week are:
Denver
Tampa Bay
San Francisco

I'm leaning heavy with Denver, though I hate taking a road team in a division game even with a giant talent disparity. Anyone want to make me feel better about this pick? Also about 75% of the remaining folks have used Denver already, so I should be in some pretty tight company.



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Posted by Carson123987 on 12/5 at 3:02 pm to Biff Tannen
Raiders up to 11.5. Will probably take it.
Titans +5 is meh. I don't like Tenn on the road.
Jags +2.5 is meh
Rams and Saints are nice. Brees is going to abuse that shitty nyg secondary
I kinda like Arizona +11.5
not touching houston



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