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re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14quote: You can make excuses for every bet that loses... Reply • Back to Top |
quote: Really? Just stating that the guy was on the right side. Dogsheet happens thats part of it. Reply • Back to Top |
exactly  Reply • Back to Top |
| I think I'll do holes ML experiment. I don't like bball spreads Because it seems like more times than not, you get Moosed out of a cover Reply • Back to Top |
quote: Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by Chef Leppard on 12/4 at 4:38 pm to Biff Tannen Hey. Rookie question as far as teasers go. And dont fricking tease me, im sensitive In a game like Thurs night, where i had already planned to lock the Denver -3.5 U56.5 (my site doesnt do 8pt) Would it not be smarter to turn toward the home dog in a situation like that? I mean, i dont care if the raiders were playing a pro bowl team, I would feel obligated to take them getting 18.5 pts at home Like I said before, Ive always just done simple bets with a local guy. I havent started playing around with these teasers and small parlays till this year This post was edited on 12/4 at 4:39 pm Reply • Back to Top |
| It's up to you. A lot of sharper guys on twitter only like to take dogs in teasers. It's one of those things, do you feel more confident in Raiders cover 18.5 or Denvers -3.5? Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by Biff Tannen on 12/4 at 5:38 pm to Chef Leppard quote: LuLz new sig quote quote: they don't let you buy a point? (read on of my last posts for an explanation) quote: excellent point, but they're turrible.. wouldn't be surprised if Peyton goes batman all over their silver and black clown asses quote: i should have just told you to ask 425, he is way better than me at analyzing teasers but let's try to break this game down real quick Peyton=Christian Bale=Batman>Raiders whole team=Superman  get it? got it? good This post was edited on 12/4 at 5:45 pm Reply • Back to Top |
quote: Do both. Thats what I did for SNF. Took Dal -2.5 and Phi +18 with O35.5 Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by Chef Leppard on 12/4 at 5:52 pm to Biff Tannen My site has I think 3, 6, and 7 pt teasers. You can do a 10pt teaser but not on multiple bets within a single game. With McFadden coming back, I do think Oakland has enough in them for two TDs anyway. Palmer has been avg over 300yds a game. That being said, the pressure would be on Denver to score 32 pts on the road in somewhat of a rivalry game Just wondering what is the safer play in a game where the spread is already DD Reply • Back to Top |
| I think Raiders +18.5 would be my play. Takes a lot in the NFL for a 20 point blowout. Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by GHAZI on 12/5 at 8:02 am to bamafan425 True, but the Raiders have lost by 21+ 3 of the last 5 games. I'm backing Denver -9.5 despite the 23-2 ATS trend of home dogs of 8+ over last 3 years. Oakland's defense is miserable. in this 5 game losing streak, allowing over 7 yards per play (unheard of in NFL, college like statistic) and 38 PPG...they have absolutely no pass rush whatsoever... this was a reason I backed Denver against TB and covered (only by 1 point, but only due to backdoor was it so close). Oakland made Weeden look like Brady last week, and can't stop the run either (recall Martin's 250 yard rushing performance). All metrics indicate Oakland is the worst team in the NFL right now. Oakland's offense hovers in the below average-average area, I don't think McFadden makes much of a difference. Palmer's having an okay year, but Denver has an elite defense and especially an elite pass rush. I expect Manning to shred this defense. 30/38 for 338 yards in the last meeting, a 37-6 win. I think Broncos win by 14-17 points and cover. Oakland only keeps this close with a lucky day as far as turnovers/penalties. REALLY bad football team. Reply • Back to Top |
| Tailing BTB. He went 9-1 last weekend. Raiders +10.5 Titans +6 Jags +3 Rams +3 Saints +5 Texans +4 Seahawks/Bucs Teaser Also on Lions +7. Gonna wait and see if I can get that without paying juice. Reply • Back to Top |
| Damn, you need some doggy biscuits or something? Reply • Back to Top |
| Just tailing. He's been pretty stout this year. Reply • Back to Top |
| BTB was also on Panthers, any reason why you left them out. If you are gonna tail, be all in. Reply • Back to Top |
| I musta missed it off my list. Fully plan on tailing him all the way. Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by Biff Tannen on 12/5 at 2:34 pm to bamafan425 quote: i hate taking dogs, especially road dogs i don't tail anybody, becuase if i'm going to lose i want it to be on my own accord that being said, i like almost everyone of those plays.. especially Texans, Saints, Titans and Rams Reply • Back to Top |
| Posted this earlier, but wanted the experts opinion in here......getting down to the nitty gritty in my survivor league....I think my best options this week are: Denver Tampa Bay San Francisco I'm leaning heavy with Denver, though I hate taking a road team in a division game even with a giant talent disparity. Anyone want to make me feel better about this pick? Also about 75% of the remaining folks have used Denver already, so I should be in some pretty tight company. Reply • Back to Top |
| Raiders up to 11.5. Will probably take it. Titans +5 is meh. I don't like Tenn on the road. Jags +2.5 is meh Rams and Saints are nice. Brees is going to abuse that shitty nyg secondary I kinda like Arizona +11.5 not touching houston Reply • Back to Top • Refresh |
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