NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
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NFL Week 6 Betting Thread..
Posted by LSUAlum2001 on 10/8 at 12:05 pm
9-2 with Houston pending tonight in Week 5.

I'll review the blacklisted spreadsheet (5-1 so far in W5) for week 6 and try to make adjustments based on injuries that may carry over to Week 6 like the injury to Cassel.

My spreadsheet's (18-11 YTD) early look at W6:

Atlanta -9.5
Baltimore -3.5
New England -4
San Francisco -6 (I hope this drops)
Green Bay +5.5


This post was edited on 10/8 at 12:54 pm

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Posted by LSU Coyote on 10/8 at 12:13 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:

Atlanta -9.5

That will go over 10 before it closes.



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Posted by Brageous on 10/8 at 12:28 pm to LSUAlum2001
I got Atlanta at -8.5 and Baltimore -4 this week.

May start with that on NFL and continue onto CFB betting now.



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Posted by HoLeInOnEr05 on 10/8 at 12:29 pm to Brageous
Y'all think Atlanta will get over 10?


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Posted by LSUAlum2001 on 10/8 at 12:49 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
Atlanta is the only 3:1 ratio play on the NFL blacklisted spreadsheet in W6 so it makes this a big bet play.

Other leans from the blacklist spreadsheet:
Pittsburgh -5.5
Cincinnati -1
Miami -3.5
Houston -5.5
Denver +2.5

..waiting on lines in the NYJ/IND, TB/KC and WAS/MIN games.


This post was edited on 10/8 at 12:52 pm

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Posted by Hogkiller10 on 10/8 at 1:53 pm to LSUAlum2001
Blacklist sheet is 9-2 against the spread this week. Figured out how to apply the spreads (if Im doing it right)


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Posted by smyce on 10/8 at 2:01 pm to LSUAlum2001
Baltimore has three consecutive weeks of winning the game, but losing ATS. The lines were good every week.

-2.5 vs New England
-12.5 vs Cleveland
-4.5 vs Kansas City

Of course there is no method to any of this madness, but I'm fading Baltimore TFN.



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Posted by LSUAlum2001 on 10/8 at 2:34 pm to Hogkiller10
quote:

Blacklist sheet is 9-2 against the spread this week. Figured out how to apply the spreads (if Im doing it right)


Ex of a lean for W5
Cincinnati Team Rating: 24.4 (23.4 and 1 point for Home)
Miami Team Rating: 24.2

Vegas Spread was CIN -3.5.
Spreadsheet said P.

Miami was a lean.

Ex of a 3:1 big bet for W5
Minnesota team rating: 29.55 (28.55 + 1 for home field)
Tennessee team rating: 10.1

Minnesota's team rating was ~3x Tennessee's.

Vegas line was -3.5 for Minnesota

Bet the house on Minnesota and they crushed Tennessee by 23.




This post was edited on 10/8 at 4:20 pm

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Posted by ShaqTIGAH on 10/8 at 2:47 pm to LSUAlum2001
Texans are a spreadsheet play for tonight?


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Posted by LSUAlum2001 on 10/8 at 2:55 pm to ShaqTIGAH
quote:

Texans are a spreadsheet play for tonight?


Yes.

The other two 3:1 ratio games rolled to easy covers: Chicago and Minnesota.



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Posted by HoLeInOnEr05 on 10/8 at 2:56 pm to LSUAlum2001
How do you tell as far as the spread goes? How many points they should give? Etc, etc ..


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Posted by LSUAlum2001 on 10/8 at 3:07 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:

How do you tell as far as the spread goes? How many points they should give? Etc, etc ..


Based on the team total ratings.

Houston team total rating: 37.78
NY Jets team total rating: 13.6 (with +1 for home added in)

The difference is 24. You can usually use this a guide to the score.

Houston 34
NY Jets 10

I'd use the difference ratings for favorites up to -14 or so.



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Posted by aVatiger on 10/8 at 4:00 pm to LSUAlum2001
i'm on a 7pt teaser so far, (i hardly ever do teasers, but somebody mentioned it yesterday and i loved it), Hou -1/O33

gonna see where the line goes and play it by ear



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Posted by LSUAlum2001 on 10/8 at 4:04 pm to aVatiger
quote:

Hou -1/O33


Looks like a winner to me.



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Posted by Brageous on 10/8 at 4:07 pm to LSUAlum2001
think I got houston -2.5 and O34.5 in a teaser a while back


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Posted by aVatiger on 10/8 at 4:08 pm to LSUAlum2001
i should have grabbed -8 last night when i had the chance and buy it down to -7, i thought people would pound the Jets today though.. i was wrong


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Posted by bamafan425 on 10/8 at 4:08 pm to aVatiger
I'm on that teaser as well. I mentioned it yesterday and locked it in for tonight.

Might take Texans in-game if Jets somehow score. Would love to get it at -7.



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Posted by LSUAlum2001 on 10/8 at 4:19 pm to bamafan425
quote:

Might take Texans in-game if Jets somehow score


I don't see how: Holmes, Keller, & Hill are all out.

I'd take -9 now. Once Houston scores 1st, it'll never drop below -13 in game.



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Posted by TexasTiger1185 on 10/8 at 4:22 pm to LSUAlum2001
Didn't know Hill was out. There is approximately zero offense left for Jets


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Posted by aVatiger on 10/8 at 4:23 pm to LSUAlum2001
you just talked me into -9

i might make this a *10 night



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