The most damning report you will ever read of the End
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The most damning report you will ever read of the End
Posted by ich1baN on 6/2 at 1:59 am
... of Banking, Markets and Finance as we know it.

This is probably the most popular topic I have ever seen posted on ZH.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/big-reset-2012-and-2013-will-usher-end-scariest-presentation-ever



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Posted by TheHiddenFlask on 6/2 at 6:15 am to ich1baN
I knew it would suck, so I read it.

The best part was:

quote:

Short futures – banned


That's some mouth breather shite right there.



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Posted by ich1baN on 6/2 at 9:01 am to TheHiddenFlask
Amen to you brother about short futures if you are alluding to the same manipulation I am.

The scary part is this could actually happen which is why this article really does send a chill or two down my spine if they are this worried over a derivatives crisis:

http://www.gata.org/node/11412



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Posted by LSURussian on 6/2 at 9:13 am to ich1baN
zerohedge? Seriously??


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Posted by ich1baN on 6/2 at 9:22 am to LSURussian
No, Raol Pal... ZH just posted it.

http://www.businessinsider.com/raoul-pal-the-end-game-2012-6




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Posted by davesdawgs on 6/2 at 10:22 am to ich1baN
Can someone interpret the charts in the presentation, for instance the MSCI World Index, and explain Pal's dire conclusion? He presents all these charts but doesn't offer any explanation as far as I can tell.


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Posted by ZereauxSum on 6/2 at 10:32 am to ich1baN
quote:

After that…we put on our tin helmets and hide until the new system emerges


That sums up what I just read. Or at least the parts that were coherent.



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Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets on 6/2 at 11:45 am to ich1baN


It's frustrating that people that have no idea how the structure of economics and finance work wrote the most about it.

I like ZH but you have to know the context behind every word otherwise your in a bomb shelter with gold bars and a tin hat waiting for cthulhu to show up.



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Posted by Spock's Eyebrow on 6/2 at 5:34 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
quote:

your in a bomb shelter with gold bars and a tin hat waiting for cthulhu to show up.


Well shite.



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Posted by LSURussian on 6/2 at 7:04 pm to ich1baN
quote:

No, Raol Pal... ZH just posted it.
How many "the end is near" threads are you going to start, Mr. Chicken Little?



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Posted by ich1baN on 6/3 at 10:50 am to BennyAndTheInkJets
It's also interesting that the ones that claim the academia spotlight are also the most in the dark when paradigms shift.

Most professors that write economics and finance textbooks are all intelligent and is where I got my financial and economic background from but I can't listen to them for financial wisdom b/c they represent the mainstream. You can take a moat approach, status quo, or a contrarion approach. I tend to take the latter b/c I am in a point in life where I can take more risks. Professors and the intelligentsia tend to take the first 2 with an emphasis on the 2nd option. Don't get me wrong, their methods are unfathomable during macro growth and booms, but we have not and will not exit the recessionary tentacles from 2008 for some time to come. Where do the masses follow? Well, they tend to follow option 2 in my opinion b/c that is where on the surface wisdom dictates and by 'god' they can't ever be wrong can they?

My posts aren't meant to sway you into my camp but I do think a multitude of ideas can only hearken and challenge your own views on how the world operates and how 'models' of expectations and human actors on localized levels interpret data and react in not so EMH ways.

Now, most on here would have called me crazy while the market was moving upwards almost hitting 13,000 and I decided to short it. I am still short the market and think it has another 5 to 10% to fall before the Fed really decides to do anything.

Do I base this on fundamentals? Partly. Do I base it on my 'models' of how the world operates. Mostly.

Now, the topic of QE is another day but as much as I disagree with it, I know how people will react and what the impacts will be.


This post was edited on 6/3 at 10:51 am

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Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets on 6/3 at 1:40 pm to ich1baN
quote:

It's also interesting that the ones that claim the academia spotlight are also the most in the dark when paradigms shift.

Best Bernanke quote of his tenure was when a reporter asked him about his actions basically contradicting his work on more needed stimulus from Japan to avoid the lost decades. He just kind of smiled and said "I'm a lot more sympathetic to central bankers than I was in 2003."
quote:

Don't get me wrong, their methods are unfathomable during macro growth and booms, but we have not and will not exit the recessionary tentacles from 2008 for some time to come.

Agreed, El-Erian nailed it when he said "My generation borrowed too much and now your generation is going to have to deal with it."
quote:

My posts aren't meant to sway you into my camp but I do think a multitude of ideas can only hearken and challenge your own views on how the world operates and how 'models' of expectations and human actors on localized levels interpret data and react in not so EMH ways

Academia has never equaled application. EMH and CAPM are an absolute joke. Your point?
quote:

Now, most on here would have called me crazy while the market was moving upwards almost hitting 13,000 and I decided to short it. I am still short the market and think it has another 5 to 10% to fall before the Fed really decides to do anything.

I think most on here would agree with you. The run up was just to to asset allocation shifts, basically the Fed pushing investors outside of the concentric circle. The Fed bought the large majority of low coupon treasury and mortgage issuance last year and credit was underpriced. The LTRO was a sugar high.
quote:

Now, the topic of QE is another day but as much as I disagree with it, I know how people will react and what the impacts will be.

A lot of people have gone on record predicting QE3, the thing is 5yr/5yr forward breakevens are still sitting around the 2.6% range compared to the 2% they usually become active at. Disagree though, nobody knows what the total impact will be. Who would've thought that QE1 wouldn't put a big dent in unemployment after the mortgage transmission mechanism was one of the Fed's best tools for so long? Who would've thought rates would plummet after QE2 ended at the end of June? Shit's hard to judge man.




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Posted by NC_Tigah on 6/3 at 2:25 pm to ich1baN
quote:

I am still short the market and think it has another 5 to 10% to fall before the Fed really decides to do anything.
J/c.
When you say you're "short the market," most individuals don't bet "the market" as a majority stake of their portfolio. What are you referring to? -1X, -2X, -3X ETF's? Shorting pools of stocks? Selling options? All of the above?

Sounds, for example, like you were on the right side of the JPM trade. I wasn't.
Stubbornly, I'm still not.

But is that one of many you've individually shorted?



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Posted by Blakely Bimbo on 6/3 at 9:52 pm to davesdawgs
quote:

Can someone interpret the charts in the presentation, for instance the MSCI World Index, and explain Pal's dire conclusion? He presents all these charts but doesn't offer any explanation as far as I can tell


daves, go to business insider and you can get a much better view of the charts in the presentation. Pal is identifying head and shoulders patterns.

From Investopedia:
quote:

Definition of 'Head And Shoulders Pattern' A technical analysis term used to describe a chart formation in which a stock's price: 1. Rises to a peak and subsequently declines. 2. Then, the price rises above the former peak and again declines. 3. And finally, rises again, but not to the second peak, and declines once more. The first and third peaks are shoulders, and the second peak forms the head.


I just don't know about his timing. The deleveraging process can take a lot longer than anyone thinks. I would be willing to bet also that Pal has gold positions that he wants to sell. People "talk their book" and you have to keep that in mind when you read financial analysis.



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