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 ElectionProjection.com currently projects 51 GOP senators for the 113th CongressPosted by Doc Fenton on 4/16 at 7:58 pm ElectionProjection.com currently projects 50 GOP senators for the 113th Congress Projections for the 2012 Senate elections ( LINK): Democrat-Ind. holds (18) = CA (Feinstein), CT (Lieberman), DE (Carper), FL (Bi. Nelson), Hawaii (Akaka), MD (Cardin), MI (Stabenow), MN (Klobuchar), NJ (Menendez), NM (Bingaman), NY (Gillibrand), OH (Brown), PA (Casey), RI (Whitehouse), VT (Sanders), VA (Webb), WA (Cantwell), & WV (Manchin). Democrat-Ind. gains (2) = ME (Snowe) & MA (Brown). Republican gains (5) = MO (McCaskill), MT (Tester), NE (Be. Nelson), ND (Conrad), & WI (Kohl). Republican holds (8) = AZ (Kyl), IN (Lugar), MS (Wicker), NV (Ensign/Heller), TN (Corker), TX (Hutchison), UT (Hatch), & WY (Barrasso). GOP hits 10% lead in Rasmussen generic Congressional ballot ( LINK), the highest lead since January. NOTE ON RASMUSSEN In 2010, Rasmussen predicted Republican wins in 6 of the 7 close U.S. Senate races in CA, CO, IL, NV, PA, WA, & WV, i.e., all but CA. The results were as follows: United States Senate Elections, 2010 CA Barbara Boxer (D), 52.1% Carly Fiorina (R), 42.5% CO Michael Bennet (D), 47.7% Ken Buck (R), 46.8% IL Mark Kirk (R), 48.2% Alexi Giannoulias (D), 46.3% NV Harry Reid (D), 50.2% Sharron Angle (R), 44.6% PA Pat Toomey (R), 51.0% Joe Sestak (D), 49.0% WA Patty Murray (D), 52.4% Dino Rossi (R), 47.6% WV Joe Manchin (D), 53.5% John Raese (R), 43.4% The Republicans did take seats in AR (Boozman over Lincoln), IN (Coats over Ellsworth), ND (Hoeven over Potter), & WI (Johnson over Feingold), as well as MA (Brown over Coakley from January 19, 2010). IL (Kirk) & PA (Toomey) were also GOP Gains. Thus the number of Republican senators has risen from 40 in 2009 to 47 now. This post was edited on 5/12 at 2:21 pm Reply • Back to Top |
quote: Are these two expected to win their primaries? I know they are being challenged. Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by Doc Fenton on 4/16 at 8:06 pm to Decatur  I'm just listing incumbents, even for ones that aren't running. Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by Doc Fenton on 4/16 at 8:11 pm to Doc Fenton It's too early to accurately track anything just yet, but these will be interesting to follow once we know more about the dynamics of the upcoming races... FL (Bi. Nelson) OH (Brown) PA (Casey) VA (Webb) WV (Manchin) This post was edited on 4/28 at 1:20 pm Reply • Back to Top |
quote: I wouldn't give up on Brown in MA either. Brown is holding his own there against someone who is far left even by Massachusetts standards. Reply • Back to Top |
| Seems reasonable to me. The winner of the Potus election will have the majority. Reid should step down from his LEADERSHIP POSITION and let a fighter run the Senate. The Senate should run on majority rule. no one would ever get 60 votes for anything. This post was edited on 5/12 at 7:15 pm Reply • Back to Top |
quote: I agree quote: Going to be tough to beat Allen. Kaine may need Obama coattails (high turnout). Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by Doc Fenton on 4/28 at 1:19 pm to NHTIGER [EDIT: Oops. I accidentally rewrote this post rather than making a new update post at the bottom of the thread.] From May 12, 2012 (but with the percentages as of April 28)... Nothing new to report on Maine, Pennsylvania, or West Virginia, but here's a recap the latest Rasmussen polls on senate races: Republicans Defending Seats MA ( 4/20): Warren (D), 46% vs. Brown (R), 45% (See also Maine.) Democrats-Indies Defending Seats FL ( 4/27): Nelson (D), 47% vs. Mack (R), 36% MO ( 4/19): Steelman (R), 49% vs. McCaskill (D), 42% NM ( 4/4): Heinrich (D), 46% vs. Wilson (R), 42% MT ( 4/3): Rehberg (R), 47% vs. Tester (D), 44% OH ( 4/20): Brown (D), 44% vs. Mandel (R), 41% VA ( 4/20): Allen (R), 46% vs. Kaine (D), 45% WI ( 3/28): Thompson (R), 48% vs. Baldwin (D), 44% (See also CT, NE, ND, PA, & WV.) This post was edited on 5/12 at 2:04 pm Reply • Back to Top |
quote: He said he is retiring. he said it before he was put on the super12. I would not bet on him winning re-election. he has two big strikes against him. 1. His spokesman, attempting to calm the waters "the senator's statements, (in the well of Congress!!), were not intended to be factual". 2. super 12 failed. he is now on record as not being willing to keep to the previous agreements, which were set up as part of the super12 bargain. I hope he runs. I would personally invent some bumper stickers to honor his "statements not intended to be factual". Reply • Back to Top |
quote: Casey sucks and should be vulnerable, but the GOP nominated some no-name candidate. This will probably be a hold  That said, as long as Ogumpcare gets struck down, it was worth getting rid of Sanatorium. Reply • Back to Top |
quote: ok. that explains Kyl Az-R. Reply • Back to Top |
quote: Tom Smith has a real good chance to beat him. This post was edited on 4/28 at 2:44 pm Reply • Back to Top |
quote: I hope you're right. It seems like an uphill battle though. Casey is conservative on social issues, so he'll run a lot stronger in the T than a liberal would. Plus PA has been trending blue for a while. Hasn't supported the R presidential nominee since the 1980s and Sleestak even made it close in a very Republican year nationally. Reply • Back to Top |
| Outside of Phil and Pitt, Obama is toast. We have voter ID now, hopefully that will curb the fraud. Smith is a coal mine owner and has $$$ and he's spending it. Welch, was the GOP backed candidate and he got squashed. This post was edited on 4/28 at 3:57 pm Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by Doc Fenton on 5/12 at 1:45 pm to Doc Fenton ElectionProjection.com flips VA into the R column, now predicts 51 GOP senators: LINK.Reply • Back to Top |
quote: Hmm...I wonder what they are basing this on Kaine still has a slight edge on the RCP average LINK Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by Doc Fenton on 5/12 at 2:02 pm to Doc Fenton These are the only updates I see since April 28... MA ( 5/8): Warren (D), 45% vs. Brown (R), 45% MT ( 5/3): Rehberg (R), 53% vs. Tester (D), 43% VA ( 4/24): Allen (R), 46% vs. Kaine (D), 45% WI ( 5/11): Thompson (R), 50% vs. Baldwin (D), 38% This post was edited on 5/12 at 2:07 pm Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by Doc Fenton on 5/12 at 2:04 pm to Decatur Reply • Back to Top |
Posted by Doc Fenton on 5/12 at 2:16 pm to Doc Fenton Also, for some primary races LINK & LINK ... ME Dem Primary (election day on 6/12/12) (April 2012 Maine People's Resource Center poll) Cynthia Dill, 20.3% Matthew Dunlap, 16.7% ME Rep Primary (election day on 6/12/12) (April 2012 Maine People's Resource Center poll) Charlie Summers, 27.6% Bruce Poliquin, 12.0% CT Dem Primary (election day on 8/14/12) (March 2012 Quinnipiac poll) Chris Murphy, 37% Susan Bysiewicz, 24% CT Rep Primary (election day on 8/14/12) (March 2012 Quinnipiac poll) Linda McMahon, 51% Chris Shays, 42% Also for your amusement... TX Rep Primary LINK (election day on 5/29/12) (April 2012 PPP poll) Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, 38% Ted Cruz, 26% Tom Leppert, 8% Craig James, 7% Also FYI from April 24, " (Tom) Smith Wins Pennsylvania Senate GOP Primary." Additionally, it looks like Raese is not going to be a legitimate contender in WV: LINK. It will likely be Bob Kerrey (D) vs. Jon Bruning (R) in NE: LINK. ND primaries are on June 12, and it will probably be between Heidi Heitkamp & Tracy Potter for the Democrats, and between Rick Berg & Duane Sand for the Republicans. This post was edited on 5/12 at 2:40 pm Reply • Back to Top |
quote: Maine Independent Angus King is pretty much a sure thing to win Snowe's seat in November, regardless of who wins either party's primary. He would almost certainly caucus with the Senate Dems once he is elected. Good thread though, thanks for the updates. Reply • Back to Top • Refresh |
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