quote: 2009 LSU Offense LSU Rushing offense 75th 136.80y/g LSU Passing offense 103rd 173.20y/g LSU Scoring Offense 73rd 25.00p/g LSU Total Offense 107th 310y/g LSU is 15th in turnover margin (+0.90 per game)
quote: 2009 LSU Defense LSU is 21st in total defense LSU is 10th in scoring defense LSU is 41st in run defense LSU is 21st in passing efficiency defense LSU is 25th in pass defense
Texas had a sophomore QB, a great offense and a terrible pass defense
LSU has a sophomore QB and a terrible offense, but a great defense.
Texas won their first four:
quote: DATE OPPONENT RESULT/TIME RECORD/TICKETS September 1 Arkansas State W 21-13 1-0 (0-0) September 8 TCU W 34-13 2-0 (0-0) September 15 at UCF W 35-32 3-0 (0-0) September 22 Rice W 58-14 4-0 (0-0)
Lost their next two:
quote: September 29 Kansas State L 41-21 4-1 (0-1) October 6 Oklahoma L 28-21 4-2 (0-2)
Freeman had a TD pass, KSU had an INT return for a TD, a punt return for a TD and a KO return for a TD. What were the UT message boards like that night?
Won 5 in a row:
quote: October 13 at Iowa State W 56-3 5-2 (1-2) October 20 at Baylor W 31-10 6-2 (2-2) October 27 Nebraska W 28-25 7-2 (3-2) November 3 at Oklahoma State W 38-35 8-2 (4-2) November 10 Texas Tech W 59-43 9-2 (5-2)
and all they had to do was beat a 5-5 Texas A&M squad to gain a BCS Bowl bid. Well they failed. Got stuck in another crappy Holiday Bowl game against ASU, whom they promptly went out and shellacked 52-34.
They hired Will Muschamp in the offseason, fixed the leaky defense and went 12-1 with Colt McCoy as a Junior Heisman finalist and their only blemish in the BCS MNC Race was a heartbreaking loss to Texas Tech.
UT went 10-3 win 2006, losing to tOSU, KSU and Texas A&M. Texas lost to Kansas State and Texas A&M in 2006 and 2007 but finished with 10 wins both years
Were they "mediocre" in 2006 and 2007 with a 10-3 record? Did UT fans want Mack gone? was the UT program a "sinking ship?"
Texas wins out this year they are facing the SECCG winner for the BCSNC. Where will LSU be next year and in 2011? I don't know but I thought the parallels between the two programs was interesting.
A matchup of two of the best programs in the state with Shaw having played in the Dome the 3 previous seasons (going 0-3 in the 4A Finals). Acadiana has a tough to stop veer offense keyed by QB Ryan Bergeron and a duo of RBs. Acadiana has really taken off with the emergence of RB Josh Pillard to complement RB Blair Broussard. Shaw has battled some key injuries all season and they have won by consistently running the football. I think Acadiana will have a slight edge offensively and I think Shaw will have a tough time scoring enough to stay with Acadiana. The Rams don't like to throw it but they will to keep the defense honest, Shaw will not throw it all and you won't beat Acadiana just trying to run over them. Acadiana has had a few bad stretches where they turned the ball over and it cost them the Barbe game. So if they have a few turnovers it could turn the game around on them. I don't see that happening so my pick is ACADIANA
Ouachita Parish at Central
Way too much offense from Central for the Lions. OPHS has the ability to score some points themselves with a nice power running game but with Central you really can't stop them. The OPHS game plan will be to try to slow the Wildcats down enough to outscore them and only one team has managed to that (St Paul's way back in week 2). OPHS can put some pressure on QB Briscoe (they had 9 sacks last week against WestJeff) and they can match up somewhat in the secondary with all of the Central receivers. With OPHS spread out all over the field on defense I expect CHS RB McKenzie Price to have a big game running the football. A long trip for OPHS and CENTRAL should roll at home
Jesuit at Archbishop Rummel
11 weeks in a row Rummel has been consistent like a metronome, play tough defense score enough to win. I think that streak ends this week. Rummel's leading tackler Phil Helmstetter is still out with a sprained ankle and Freshman QB Darian Williams will start for the fourth week in a row for Luke Cartozzo. Rummel needed a fourth quarter TD to break a 14-14 tie with Jesuit in week 7 when they were healthy and they had a tough time offensively with 32 seed Capt Shreve last week. Jesuit's leading rusher Gary Langlois broke his leg in week 10 but the Blue Jays have enough depth to continue on without him. I think the pressure and intensity of the situation will get to the Rummel freshman QB and the struggling Raiders offense will put their great defense in too many holes. I expect a low scoring, highly intensive game and to me that favors JESUIT.
Catholic Baton Rouge at Comeaux
I predicted the Comeaux upset of Dutchtown last week because of the one dimensional running offense of Dutchtown playing into the strength of Comeaux's defense. Well this week the matchup turns against Comeaux as the Catholic Bears come to town. I wont say that CHSBR is one dimensional with Jr QB Zach Oliver throwing the ball, but they are very effective passing team and that will give Comeaux's secondary some problems. On offense Comeaux's QB Michael Strentz (bad shoulder) healthier by the week and he is a difference maker but Comeaux has been somewhat turnover prone. The Spartans discovered a new feature back in Jordan Porter and the running game could give the Bears some problems but I think Zach Oliver passing will create some big plays for CATHOLIC and allow them to cruise into round three.
Barbe at Hahnville
Barbe Soph QB Jared Foster has returned from a broken collarbone he suffered in week four and has picked up where he left off directing the high powered Bucs offense. Hahnville has an outstanding QB in Brian Ensminger (nephew of former LSU QB Steve Ensminger). There are two big factors that swing this game in Hanhville's direction to me. The first is Hahnville's 6'2 202lb JR TB Alfred Blue. Barbe has a quality TB themselves in Mickey Guillory (1200yds 18TD) but Blue is a difference maker. The second factor is the home field advantage. Lagrange went to Boutte and gave HHS a scare last week but HHS woke up in the second half and took over the game. With the Bucs coming to town this week I expect HHS to be up and prepared to play and their stadium is one of the few real home field "advantages" in the state. So Alfred Blue and the home field give HAHNVILLE the win.
West Monroe at St. Augustine
Kind of a weird game here. No one knows what St Aug team that will show up from week to week and there are two huge question marks surrounding the WM Rebels. Will QB Paul Turner return from injury (achilles) and will DE Jordan Allen play with a turf toe? Frankly I don't think it matters because WM is an efficient machine that just plugs in one part for another. St Aug has all of the talent in the world but they are in pretty deep waters against WM in the playoffs. The last time St Aug won a playoff game was 2000, so the experience and coaching edge is way in WM's favor. I expect this to be an ugly game, which plays into WM's hands, they always tend to win those ugly games that come down to one or two plays. So give the REBELS the road win on the backs of Shows and Arledge, just like always.
St. Paul at Thibodaux
Last year these two teams played an all time thriller with St Paul losing on a last second THS FG 25-22. This year a gimpy Trevon Reed for THS means there won't be nearly as much intrigue or excitement. Thibodaux beat STM in OT last week with Reed playing last week with a knee brace on his left knee and he appeared to be about 80% healthy. That won't be enough to counteract the bruising running game and efficient passing game that ST PAUL will put on the Tigers undersized defense.
South Lafourche at Westgate
Another weird matchup. SLHS went 1-9 last year, got a new coach and so far is 10-1 this year. Westgate had their usual up and down regular season but they are a different team every year in the playoffs. SLHS is huge across the OL and DL and they will use that size to wear out the undersized Westgate lines. Westgate doesn't have much depth either and that will be a big problem for them against the Tarpons. Tigers QB Diontae Spencer is a game breaker capable of winning a game single handedly on offense but I suspect SLHS will do to Westgate what STM did to them. Use a big OL to mash the Tigers front 7, wear them out and keep Spencer off the field. If SLHS doesn't turn the ball over and contains Spencer then SOUTH LAFOURCHE should win this comfortably.
Last year we saw what a struggling running game, a mediocre pass defense and constantly playing from behind can do to a QB with JLee's 16 INTs. So I surmise that in the off season LSU HC Les Miles committed to Jordan Jefferson at QB and made a decision to reduce the turnovers, achieve a better balance on offense and try to win games with an improved 2009 defense.
2008 Offense
quote: LSU was 43rd in rushing offense at 167y/g LSU was 71st in passing offense at 201y/g LSU was 55th in total offense 368y/g LSU was 30th in scoring offense 31p/g Jarrett Lee was 81st in passing efficiency LSU was 67th in turnover margin (-0.67 per game) 45% of LSU's yardage came via the run in 2008 55% of LSU's yardage came via the pass in 2008
2008 Defense
quote: LSU was 30th in scoring defense LSU was 17th in rushing defense LSU was 42 in passing efficiency defense LSU was 73rd in pass defense LSU was 32 in total defense
2009 Offense
quote: LSU Rushing offense 75th 136.80y/g LSU Passing offense 103rd 173.20y/g LSU Scoring Offense 73rd 25.00p/g LSU Total Offense 107th 310y/g LSU is 15th in turnover margin (+0.90 per game) Jordan Jefferson is 29th in passing efficiency 132 44% of LSU's yardage comes via the run in 2009 56% of LSU's yardage comes via the pass in 2009
2009 Defense
quote: LSU is 21st in total defense LSU is 10th in scoring defense LSU is 41st in run defense LSU is 21st in passing efficiency defense LSU is 25th in pass defense
2009 National leaders 11-14-09
quote: Houston Leader in Passing offense 428y/g Nevada leader in rushing offense 353y/g Boise State leader in scoring offense 44p/g Houston leader in total offense 562y/g Rutgers leader in turnover margin +2.33:1 Moore of Boise State is the leader in passing efficiency 172.01
Houston has 76% of their offense via the pass Nevada has 68% of their offense via the run
So how much difference is there between the 107th ranked offense of 8-2 LSU of 11/14/09 and the 55th ranked offense of 8-5 LSU in 2008
Offensive Differentials from 11/14/09 to 2008 rushing offense -31y/g rushing offense rank -32 spots LSU's 167y/g (43rd) rushing stat in 2008 would be 45th in the country today
passing offense -28y/g passing offense rank -61 spots LSU's (71st) 201y/g avg from 2008 would be 82nd today
total offense -58y/g total offense rank -52 spots LSU's 368y/g in 2008 (55th) would be 68th today
scoring offense -6p/g scoring offense rank -43 spots LSU's 30th ranked 31p/g in 2008 would be 30th today
Passing efficiency +52 spots
Turnover margin +1.57 per game turnover margin rank +52 spots LSU's (67th in 2008) -0.67 turnover margin would be 97th today
2009 through 10 games Sacks 27 for -193yrds INTs 5 for 31 yards, 6.2yd per INT return AVG
2008 Sacks 22 for -185 yards INTs 18 for 461 yards, 26.5yd per INT return AVG
3rd Down Conversions 2008 LSU was 66th in the country (70/183 over 13games 38%) 2009 LSU is 59th in the country (49/123 over 10 games 39%)
31y/g rushing and 28y/g passing are what separates LSU statistically in 2008 versus LSU as of 11/14/09. Yet the offensive philosophy and QB execution in the passing game has been very different. The results have been spotty at times, outright terrible in others, but we can't deny that Jefferson has been a marked improvement over Lee and the reduction of INTs has made a tremendous difference.
We know that sacks cause punts, INTs will get you beat. In 2008 18 INTs were returned for a 26.5 yd avg per INT. So not only did LSU turn the ball over, we flipped the field position and put our mediocre defense in terrible positions. Not to mention the 7 INTs returned for TDs.
I can completely understand the decision to bring in the reins on the passing game as JJ got more comfortable. It was no mistake that the two best games JJ played overall were Washington and Auburn. UW was the first game of the season and JJ had a lot of time to prepare. Auburn came off a bye week where JJ had time to work on his QB fundamentals and look at film of the previous 6 games to see what he needed to improve on. His performance in those two games was no accident.
Rummel is 10-0, Shreve is a mediocre team in a weak district a long way from home
17 Airline at 16 Jesuit - Jesuit Jesuit is 6-4 and has played some very good teams tough, Airline is another mediocre team in a weak district a long way from home
24 South Terrebonne at 9 Barbe - Barbe
Barbe has two tough losses (Evangel and Rummel) but they have been winning with their 2nd and 3rd string QBs and ST doesn't matchup with them at all
25 Lagrange at 8 Hahnville - Hahnville
this shouldn't be a game at all but Lagrange is better than a 25 seed and could give HHS a scare for a little while. HHS will be too much for them at home.
28 Central Lafourche at 5 South Lafourche - South Lafourche
rematch of week 10 that SLHS won comfortably and I expect them to win comfortably again
21 Westgate at 12 Mandeville - Westgate
Westgate is better than a 21 seed and Mandeville is worse than a 12 seed. Westgate has a difference maker at QB (Diontae Spencer) and they are a speed team that has been hurt by all of the bad weather we have had on 8 of the 10 Friday nights. Mandeville hasn't played a team with a winning record since 9/25 (they lost).
20 West Jefferson at 13 Ouachita Parish - OPHS
WJ lost their first three then won 7 in a row and I want to give them some love but SELA public schools always seem to have trouble when they have to go up north in the playoffs. So give this to OPHS with the home field advantage
29 New Iberia at 4 Central - Central
This one will be over early. CHS may be the best offensive team in 5A and NISH won't be able to stop them.
30 Terrebonne at 3 Acadiana - Acadiana
Veer machine rolls all over Terrebonne and sets up a nifty Shaw at Acadiana Rd 2 game
19 Higgins at 14 Shaw - Shaw
Higgins lost to Shaw in week one and I expect more of the same although it could be closer than some would think
22 Denham Springs at 11 Catholic BTR - Catholic
the two best teams DSHS played this season (CHSBR and Central) drummed them and I don't expect this to much of a game.
27 Comeaux at 6 Dutchtown - Comeaux
Dutchtown has some nice wins and some ugly losses but I can't help but think they are over seeded at 6. Comeaux is under seeded at 27 because they lost some games they shouldn't have (NISH and Carencro). I am predicting an upset here on a hunch because Dutchtown is very one dimensional and Comeaux is tough against the run. Comeaux QB Michael Strentz has been nursing a bad shoulder but he should be able to make some plays with his legs and throw it enough to keep Dutchtown off balance. If DTown blows them out I won't be surprised, if Comeaux wins a squeaker I won't be surprised either.
26 Destrehan at 7 St Paul- St Paul
St Paul's has a big OL and a smart, physical football team that won't beat themselves. Destrehan has come back to reality after winning 5A back to back and St Paul's wins comfortably.
23 Thibodaux at 10 St Thomas More - STM
the most interesting matchup in round one for various reasons. Thibodaux has some ugly losses when they were playing without QB Trevon Reed. STM has played a brutal schedule and done far more than the experts forecasted for them in the preseason. STM's strengths are the OL and DL, Thibodaux's OL and DL are average at best. I don't think Reed is enough to beat STM by himself, but he is enough to keep it close until the STM power running game wears the Tigers out.
18 St Aug at 15 East St John - St Aug
Two teams that have feasted on the weak on their schedule and struggled with the better teams on their schedule. St Aug gets the edge because I think St Aug is better defensively than ESJ.
31 Brother Martin at 2 West Monroe - West Monroe
won't be a game at all and sets up an interesting 2nd round matchup with WMHS at St Aug
reminded me of a few things. Against UF Dickson had a LB over him at all times and they showed a 5 man front with a LB hat on a hat with Dickson at all times
The first possesion of the 2nd half is at the 1:39mark
1st play sack - they had 3 WR in and were going to try to take a shot down the field after UF kicked a FG
2nd play CScott run for 2yrds (not shown)
the 3rd play (1:46 mark - 3rd and 15 to go) is a 4WR set - no Dickson. 5 OL vs 4 DL and they push our OL back 10 yards and sack a QB in the shotgun that also took a 5 step drop. They were on JJ from the LDE position before he even finished his 5 step drop IN THE SHOTGUN 10 yards behind the LOS
now look at the 2:06 mark 3WR with Dickson 4th and 1 with 5:57 left in the game down 13-3
5 man front at the snap with a 3 man rush. LB releases with Dickson's route. A LB drops back to spy on JJ. Pocket collapses and forces JJ to move left. He has no where to throw the ball so he has to run for it Where two LBs are waiting for him to drop him for a loss
Now keep in mind we were throwing it on 4th and 1 for the ball game and the two WRs at the top were BLOCKING and not running routes
I believe this week in practice they will take the time to work on themselves since they do not have to game prep for someone else. So I predict:
1) they will tighten up the formation OL splits, use mitch joseph and dickson together more and run a lot more offset I with Chuck Scott which will make the blocking schemes easier to execute
2) if they continue to use the 4WR or 5WR spread sets it will be solely for Shep to carry the ball or JJ/Shep and KW to run zone read. The OL is having a very difficult time with the wide splits in the spread formations and the one on one blocking it requires them to do. Speed rushers are giving our tackles a lot of trouble and in the spread they are out there on their own
3) I think we will see more Holliday in the traditional role he has been in the past. As a decoy and as a end around/reverse type of player. I think the days of Holliday running routes are over
4) I think that this week they will stress JJ going under center and using 3/5 step drops with play action to get rid of the ball quicker
5) Miles likes to run the ball but he and Crowton are smart enough to know there are multiple ways to accomplish that and so they will implement the best scheme and plays that the OL can execute and cull the rest of it. The first cull should be the option with JJ
6) I understand what the 4 and 5 WR sets are supposed to do (spread the field) but JJ locks into WRs too much and those formations require him to read too much of the field. So I predict more 2WR and 3WR formations with less WR congestion on designated routes and more option routes for Lafell/Tolliver/Randle.
7) I think that Auburn and Tulane are a golden opportunity to take the training wheels off of Shepard and let him go into the deeper waters a bit. I think it is time to see him run a full offensive series as a QB, throw the ball a few times and run the offense. He was signed at LSU to play QB, he practices at QB and he is a play maker at QB. So give the kid a chance to be the QB.
We are all aware of the high end and low end offensive outputs we have seen under Miles at LSU. Yet Miles has the undeserved reputation of being a conservative offense coach because he played OL at Michigan 30 years ago? Some forget that the all time leading receiver in OSU history, Rashaun Woods, played for Miles:
quote: Woods, OSU’s record-setting receiver just completed the regular season with 66 receptions for 1,144 yards and 14 touchdowns. Woods averaged 95.3 yards per game and an impressive 17.3 yards per reception.
Seven of Woods’ touchdown receptions came in one game. In OSU’s win at SMU, Woods hauled in seven touchdown receptions to break an NCAA single game record that had stood since 1969.
During the 2003 regular season, Woods had six games with 100 or more receiving yards, including a career high 232 yards on 13 receptions in the SMU game. He finished the regular season with six catches for 125 yards and a touchdown against Baylor.
Woods is only Oklahoma State receiver to record three straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons. He had 1,695 yards in a record setting junior season in 2002 and that followed 1,023 yards in 2001 as a sophomore.
For his Oklahoma State career, Woods now has 282 receptions for 4,191 yards and 41 touchdowns. He is just the eighth receiver in NCAA history to reach the 4,000 yard mark and he will finish his Oklahoma State career owning literally every Cowboy receiving record.
So if Miles is anything, he is an opportunist and a realist that knows sometimes you have to chuck it to win, and sometimes you have to Chuck Scott it to win. With a QB and an OL that are struggling with a vertical passing game, why continue to expose their deficiencies by forcing a bad fit in your offensive system? Why not go back to basics, stress the power running game, protecting the QB and getting rid of the football? I think Miles and Company know this as well as anyone and now is the time to make the adjustments.
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