Images from the steroid era | by supatigah on Aug 17, 2009 at 9:11 am |  | |
I will go first:
Category: Major League Baseball
Tags: MLB, Diamond Backs, Luis Gonzalez, steroids
The Blue Jays are in first? | by Baloo on May 4, 2009 at 9:43 pm | | |
Sometimes it's hard to tell after just one month whether a team is for real or not. Is that surprising April just one hot month or is the result of a team that has finally arrived? Sometimes it's hard to tell.
Sometimes it's not. Let me go way out on a limb on this one and state categorically: the Blue Jays are not winning the AL East. They are playing so far above their heads right now that the Toronto fire department has brought out safety nets for the inevitable fall back to earth.
OPS+ is a nifty little stat. It's not perfect, but it gives you a quick and dirty view of a hitter's quality. 100 is exactly league average. Any point in either direction is a percentage point above or below average. Take a look at the Blue Jays lineup, listed by their OPS+. The number in parenthesis is the same player's career OPS+.
150 Aaron Hill (99)
142 Adam Lind (101)
135 Rod Barajas (79)
131 Lyle Overbay (110)
130 Marco Scutaro (88)
114 Vernon Wells (109)
103 Scott Rolen (124)
87 Alexis Rios (105)
85 Travis Snider (99)
Four of the top five hitters are outhitting their career averages by an absurd degree. OK, maybe Aaron Hill has developed into a star, but I doubt he's suddenly become THIS good. And there is no earthly way Barajas and Scutaro continue to hit like All-Stars.
The Blue Jays have scored 159 runs, which leads the AL by 17. They have a team OPS+ of 118, which also leads the league. There is simply no way this kind of offensive explosion is supportable.
I'm happy for the Blue Jays. Well, except for Cito Gaston, who I unreasonably hate for Oriole-related reasons, but I do like the city of Toronto. Their fans should enjoy the ride while it lasts. This start has given them a headstart on the toughest division in baseball. And they should savor every moment of this.
Because it can not, and will not last.
Category: Major League Baseball
Tags: blue jays, fast starts, OPS+
Your Astros One-Month Report... Last Place Already! | by LSUBoo on Apr 30, 2009 at 5:00 pm | | |
So... one month in, and the Astros are sitting a 9-13. Normally I'd be thinking, "well, only 4 games below .500, so we're probably ahead of at least the Pirates and Cincinnati." but alas, not the case currently.
So why is that? I'll be the first to admit that I wasn't expecting a playoff season, but last place? Nah, I figured the Astros would be better than that. Is it the pitching? Well, it turns out no. The Astros have the 6th best team ERA in the National League at 4.13. Oswalt has been acceptable with a 3.94 ERA, Hampton has been good (and healthy!) with a 3.86 ERA, and apparently Wandy has been bringing his wife on the road because he's pitching like he's always at home. Through 32 innings pitched (tied for the team lead) he's sporting a fancy 1.69 ERA. In addition, Felipe Paulino has been stellar as a rotation fill in for whoever that was that really sucked and managed to give up 5 runs in 2.1 innings in his second start and LOWER his ERA to a 27.00. That's quality batting practice there.
Anyway, throw in some good relief work from Sampson, Byrdak, and Hawkins, and you have a surprisingly effective mound crew through one month.
So maybe the defense sucks ass? Hmmmm... how about no. Only the Phillies have fewer errors and a higher fielding percentage than the Astros. Now, that doesn't tell the whole story, because I'm not sure Tejada or Carlos Lee could outrun Michael Crabtree on crutches, but the fact is, the Astros have only given up two unearned runs in 22 games this season. That's not bad. Not bad at all.
[Quick aside... the Phillies have only THREE errors so far this season. frick. That's either ridiculous or some serious hometown scoring.]
So, how about the bats? The Astros are tied with the Reds for the second least runs scored in the NL so far. Ouch. The Astros are tied with Florida for the third lowest team batting average in the NL so far. frick. The Astros are 15th out of 16 in slugging, ahead of only those commie frickstains from the Queen City. Not good at all. So it turns out the Astros' offense is below average across the board... and the biggest reason so far is the Big Puma. Is a .162 batting average good? No, not even for a pitcher? Well frick. You know it's bad when the manager is benching Berkman in Cincinnati against a right-handed pitcher, but there you go. Throw in sub-par averages from Carlos Lee, Kaz Matsui and Pudge, and you have an offense struggling to score. So what's going well for the bats? For one, Michael Bourn is doing much better so far than he did last season. It's sad that a .261/.354/.377 line is an improvement, but it is. Pence, Tejada, and Blum are all hitting well so far, and Keppinger is making the most of his opportunities. But, the Astros are hitting only .216 with runners in scoring position on the season. And that's the reason why the runs aren't crossing the plate.
So... what to expect as we move on to the month of May? I'm thinking a bit of a role reversal. The offense is going to get better, especially Berkman... but the pitching is going to regress, especially Wandy Rodriguez. What does that really mean? Well, I'm betting the Astros do marginally better than 4 games below .500 in May, but it's going to come down to those last two series against the Reds and Pirates. My prediction, a 13-15 month, and up to 5th place in the division, ahead of the Pirates who are about to come back to Earth.
Category: Major League Baseball
Tags: Astros, Houston, Berkman, Puma
Jackie Robinson | by Baloo on Apr 16, 2009 at 6:25 am | | |
OK, I've been offline for a long time so I've been unable to make any contributions here. That's about to change, but I wanted to put up a quick not on Jackie Robinson since yesterday was his day and all. Here's my controversial Jackie Robinson statement:
Jackie Robinson is actually underrated as a ballplayer.
OK, I know he's about the most famous baseball player ever. And he gets his own day. But he doesn't get those honors for being really good, he gets it for breaking the games color line (and as a side note - wouldn't it be cool if the AL teams has a Larry Doby Day instead?). Robinson is not remember so much as a player but as an icon.
I know this is hard, but try to imagine Robinson if he was not the guy who broke the color line. If he was one of the guys who came in whoever broke the line's wake. I'm talking about Jackie Robinosn 100% as a ballplayer: he was friggin' awesome. In fact, you could make a case for him as the greatest 2nd baseman ever. His counting stats are a little weak, but that's mainly because he didn't start his Major League career until he was 27 because of segregation.
He was an almost perfect combination of power and speed. He has a lifetime stat line of 311/409/474. That's right, he had a career batting average above 300 and an OBP above 400. With power. And he could steal bases and play top tier defense. Bill James' Win Share system rates him as the sixth best defensive 2nd baseman ever.
This was literally a guy who could do everything on the field. Well, except pitch. He's remembered as an icon, as a statesman, and as a guy who broke down barriers with dignity and class. And all of those things are true and he should be remembered for those things. It's strange though, that the fact he was a great, great player almost gets lost in that.
Category: Major League Baseball
Tags: history, jackie robinson
Not-So-Daily Reds Blog: 2009 Could Be Irritating | by reddman on Apr 7, 2009 at 11:45 am | | |
Sure, the Reds were going up against Johan Santana on Opening Day.
Sure, the weather was less than ideal.
Sure, the Reds were without the services of Willy Taveras, who is recovering from the flu.
However, mustering just three hits was a continuation of what this offense showed us throughout spring training. It lacks pop. It lacks consistency. It lacks discipline.
A perfect example of the issues concerning this lineup occurred in the bottom of the 5th inning. With the Reds trailing 1-0, Dusty Baker pinch hit for Aaron Harang with.....Micah Owings. Yes, #5 starter Micah Owings. In a one run game, the Reds best right-handed option (and maybe best overall option) was a starting pitcher. Now, we all know that Owings can hit. He's proven that. But the first option off the bench? Ugh. Owings struck out.
I found it very suprising that Baker opted to keep Darnell McDonald, a former top prospect (1997 1st round pick by Baltimore) who has bounced around from team to team. He has a career average of .143, and showed yesterday that his defense is less than ideal. He made the team over Jonny Gomes, who while lacking plate discipline, has the ability to hit the ball out of the park. Gomes led the Reds in spring training HR's, and was 2nd in RBI. Somehow, that wasn't enough to make this club. McDonald actually got the start in CF yesterday in place of the ill Taveras. Yep, the opening day starter in CF is a .143 career hitter. Awesome.
If the troubles at the plate weren't enough to convince you that this team is headed for its 9th consecutive losing season, the pitiful display of baserunning skills should do the trick. Baserunners were picked off of first base countless times in the spring games, and there's no reason why Edwin Encarnacion should have been that far off of first base when Ryan Church made a great diving play. It's the same tired crap we saw last year from this group.
What's really sad is that the Reds have 6 quality starting pitchers on their team now, as opposed to 2, yet they have no sign of support from the offense. You'd think guys like Votto, Phillips, Bruce and Encarnacion would be able to provide enough offense to win a few games here and there. Nothing they've shown me since Adam Dunn left this team supports that argument.
Category: Major League Baseball
Tags: Baseball, Sports, Reds, MLB, crappy offense
Not-So-Daily Reds Blog: 2009 Infield | by reddman on Mar 11, 2009 at 12:18 pm | | |
First Base: Joey Votto (2008: .297 Avg, 24 HR, 84 RBI, .874 OPS)
Votto played his first full season in the majors last year, and looked like a seasoned veteran doing it. He led the team in batting average and RBI, and trailed only the departed Adam Dunn in OPS. At 25, Votto still has not reached his ceiling, and achieving numbers like 30 homers, 100 RBI, and a .900 OPS isn't out of the question in 2009.
Second Base: Brandon Phillips (2008: .261 Avg, 21 HR, 78 RBI, .754 OPS)
Phillips had an off year last season, after a monsterous 2007 in which he became the first NL 2B to hit 30 homers and steal 30 bases in the same season. Part of the decline in production can be atrributed to Phillips being placed in the #4 hole in the lineup, which will not change this season. Phillips admitted that he found himself swinging for the fences last year while hitting 4th, but has vowed to shorten his swing and concentrate more on putting the ball in play this year. Phillips' defense is among the elite, and will continue to help Reds pitchers get out of innings.
Third Base: Edwin Encarnacion (2008: .251 Avg, 26 HR, 68 RBI, .807 OPS)
EE, as he's known by most fans, had a career high 26 homers last season. However, his average dropped from .289 to .251. This type of inconsistency is what has plagued Encarnacion throughout his career. The good news is that EE is only 26 years old, and he still has yet to play up to his full potential. I actually can see him having his biggest year ever at the plate, but probably being the same sad sack in the field. His defense is just terrible at times, although he does occasionally make some great diving stops.
Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez: (2008: Did not play)
Gonzalez is returning from major surgery on his left knee, which sidelined him for the entire 2008 campaign. Now that he's back, Gonzalez and Phillips should make a great double play tandem. I'm not expecting too much from him at the plate this year, although there is talk of Dusty Baker having him hit second this season. I think that would be a mistake, and he's better off in the 8 hole.
Bench Players:
1B Daryle Ward-Signed as a free agent, Ward will more that likely be used primarily as a pinch hitter.
SS/OF Jerry Hairston, Jr-The advantage to having someone like Hairston is that he can play practically any position. The disadvantage is that he doesn't really have one position that he excels at, which will probably eliminate him from the race for the starting LF slot.
SS/3B Jeff Keppinger- Keppinger is much more suited to play 3B than shortstop, but if Gonzalez were to go down again, he'd most likely be the second option behind Hairston.
Coming up next: The Outfielders.
Category: Major League Baseball
Tags: Baseball, Sports, Reds, MLB
How The Yankees Miss the Playoffs | by Baloo on Mar 5, 2009 at 10:51 am | | |
In a recent thread on Bold Predictions for the upcoming season, I picked the New York Yankees to miss the postseason. That was before A-Rod went down with a hip injury, and is now out until late May. Then again, that was part of my logic: the Yankees are an old team and old teams get hurt. Just for kicks, here is the Yankees’ Worst Case Scenario Season.
THE GAPING HOLE BEHIND THE PLATE
A big part of the Yankees’ success has been the virtually ageless Jorge Posada. Catchers, as a rule, do not age well. History is littered with great catchers who just dropped off a cliff in their early 30’s. Posada, on the other hand, was still a terrific hitter at age 35. Well, last year, the bottom dropped out due to injuries, and the Yankees are counting on him to bounce back. That is wishful thinking. Really, the only successful hitting catcher at age 37 is Carlton Fisk. So, if Posada is Carlton Fisk, no worries. More than likely, Posada will struggle at the plate, and with injuries, and the Yankees will be giving a lot of time to Jose Molina. Molina was essentially the starting catcher last year. His line? 216/263/313. Yikes.
JETER
Jeter is either the most overrated or most underrated player in baseball, depending on who you are talking to. He really is a depressingly terrible defensive player with almost no range whatsoever, but he is a hustle guy who will be a deserved first ballot Hall of Famer. But it ain’t 1998 anymore. Check out Jeter’s AVG/OBP/SLG in the last three seasons:
343/417/483
322/388/452
300/363/408
That, my friends, is a trend. Jeter is 35 years old and unlikely to reverse that trend. He’d be fortunate to stop the trend, actually. Baseball and Father Time are cruel, even Hall of Famers decline. With A-Rod out, the Yankees need Jeter to step up the production, and that is not very likely.
THE DEFENSE
At every position, the Yankees will trot out a player who is somewhere between bad to average at his position on defense (except Teixiera). Bill James famously once said that a lot of what we think is pitching is actually defense. And the Yankees defense is terrible. It’s quite possibly the worst defense in the Majors. The Yankees spent a lot of money to upgrade the rotation, but they did not upgrade the defense. Expect the Yankees to still have some problems preventing runs.
INJURIES
Old players get hurt more often. It’s a cruel fact of baseball. Once you’re on the wrong side of 30, injuries are simply more common. And here are the starters over 30: Posada (37), Jeter (34), A-Rod (33), Damon (35), Nady (30), Matsui (34), Burnett (32), and Pettitte (36). Burnett is a famous case of a guy who simply can’t stay healthy and Posada and A-Rod will start the year injured. In all probability, this is just the beginning. And this leaves off the guy most critical to the Yankees in a lot of ways: Mariano Rivera (39). But Rivera is a freak of nature.
THE MEDIA
This team cost an absurd amount of money. If it should struggle at all, the New York media is going to tear into this team with a barely controlled fury. New York is a tough place to place with one of the harshest media glares. If this team hits a rocky patch, particularly in the early goings, the media will make it hard for this team to turn it around. You need to be mentally tough to take it.
FLEXIBILITY
Finally, if this team has injuries or it is struggling near the stretch, there isn’t a whole lot of flexibility to bring in more talent. Even the Yankees have to have a payroll limit. How much more can they add? Can they really go out and get a big bat they might need at the deadline? The bench is pretty thin, and there aren’t a whole lot of options if players start getting hurt. And the Yankees farm system is almost dry, meaning it will be even harder to flip prospects for players. That could hurt down the stretch.
This does not mean the Yankees are destined to fail, but it is not hard to construct a scenario in which they fail to live up to their lofty aspirations. The Yankees are still loaded, and a failure of a season still means they likely win 85-90 games. It’s just that there are other loaded teams in the division. Joe Torre was a master at guiding the multiple massive egos and get them to play like a team. This just in, Joe Girardi is not Joe Torre.
The Yankees will have injuries and players declining, so their fans will claim it is bad luck. It’s not. Luck is the residue of design.
Category: Major League Baseball
Tags: preview, yankees
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