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November 20, 2009 
LSU Football
Rankings After Week 10 1. pats..........47
2. packers.......50

3. steelers......59
4. cowboys.......60
5. ravens........63
6. giants........64
7. colts.........65
7. vikings.......65
9. saints........66
10 eagles........68
11 bengals.......72
11 jets..........72
13 broncos.......78

14 texans........91
15 cardinals.....95
16 chargers......99
17 49ers........100
18 redskins.....101
19 panthers.....105
20 falcons......108
20 bears........108
22 dolphins.....109
23 seahawks.....110

24 jaguars......118
25 titans.......123
26 bills........138
27 bucs.........144
28 rams.........147
29 raiders......150
30 lions........151
31 chiefs.......153
32 browns.......166

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5A bracket - 2nd round picks Archbishop Shaw at Acadiana

A matchup of two of the best programs in the state with Shaw having played in the Dome the 3 previous seasons (going 0-3 in the 4A Finals). Acadiana has a tough to stop veer offense keyed by QB Ryan Bergeron and a duo of RBs. Acadiana has really taken off with the emergence of RB Josh Pillard to complement RB Blair Broussard. Shaw has battled some key injuries all season and they have won by consistently running the football. I think Acadiana will have a slight edge offensively and I think Shaw will have a tough time scoring enough to stay with Acadiana. The Rams don't like to throw it but they will to keep the defense honest, Shaw will not throw it all and you won't beat Acadiana just trying to run over them. Acadiana has had a few bad stretches where they turned the ball over and it cost them the Barbe game. So if they have a few turnovers it could turn the game around on them. I don't see that happening so my pick is ACADIANA


Ouachita Parish at Central

Way too much offense from Central for the Lions. OPHS has the ability to score some points themselves with a nice power running game but with Central you really can't stop them. The OPHS game plan will be to try to slow the Wildcats down enough to outscore them and only one team has managed to that (St Paul's way back in week 2). OPHS can put some pressure on QB Briscoe (they had 9 sacks last week against WestJeff) and they can match up somewhat in the secondary with all of the Central receivers. With OPHS spread out all over the field on defense I expect CHS RB McKenzie Price to have a big game running the football. A long trip for OPHS and CENTRAL should roll at home

Jesuit at Archbishop Rummel

11 weeks in a row Rummel has been consistent like a metronome, play tough defense score enough to win. I think that streak ends this week. Rummel's leading tackler Phil Helmstetter is still out with a sprained ankle and Freshman QB Darian Williams will start for the fourth week in a row for Luke Cartozzo. Rummel needed a fourth quarter TD to break a 14-14 tie with Jesuit in week 7 when they were healthy and they had a tough time offensively with 32 seed Capt Shreve last week. Jesuit's leading rusher Gary Langlois broke his leg in week 10 but the Blue Jays have enough depth to continue on without him. I think the pressure and intensity of the situation will get to the Rummel freshman QB and the struggling Raiders offense will put their great defense in too many holes. I expect a low scoring, highly intensive game and to me that favors JESUIT.

Catholic Baton Rouge at Comeaux


I predicted the Comeaux upset of Dutchtown last week because of the one dimensional running offense of Dutchtown playing into the strength of Comeaux's defense. Well this week the matchup turns against Comeaux as the Catholic Bears come to town. I wont say that CHSBR is one dimensional with Jr QB Zach Oliver throwing the ball, but they are very effective passing team and that will give Comeaux's secondary some problems. On offense Comeaux's QB Michael Strentz (bad shoulder) healthier by the week and he is a difference maker but Comeaux has been somewhat turnover prone. The Spartans discovered a new feature back in Jordan Porter and the running game could give the Bears some problems but I think Zach Oliver passing will create some big plays for CATHOLIC and allow them to cruise into round three.

Barbe at Hahnville

Barbe Soph QB Jared Foster has returned from a broken collarbone he suffered in week four and has picked up where he left off directing the high powered Bucs offense. Hahnville has an outstanding QB in Brian Ensminger (nephew of former LSU QB Steve Ensminger). There are two big factors that swing this game in Hanhville's direction to me. The first is Hahnville's 6'2 202lb JR TB Alfred Blue. Barbe has a quality TB themselves in Mickey Guillory (1200yds 18TD) but Blue is a difference maker. The second factor is the home field advantage. Lagrange went to Boutte and gave HHS a scare last week but HHS woke up in the second half and took over the game. With the Bucs coming to town this week I expect HHS to be up and prepared to play and their stadium is one of the few real home field "advantages" in the state. So Alfred Blue and the home field give HAHNVILLE the win.

West Monroe at St. Augustine

Kind of a weird game here. No one knows what St Aug team that will show up from week to week and there are two huge question marks surrounding the WM Rebels. Will QB Paul Turner return from injury (achilles) and will DE Jordan Allen play with a turf toe? Frankly I don't think it matters because WM is an efficient machine that just plugs in one part for another. St Aug has all of the talent in the world but they are in pretty deep waters against WM in the playoffs. The last time St Aug won a playoff game was 2000, so the experience and coaching edge is way in WM's favor. I expect this to be an ugly game, which plays into WM's hands, they always tend to win those ugly games that come down to one or two plays. So give the REBELS the road win on the backs of Shows and Arledge, just like always.

St. Paul at Thibodaux

Last year these two teams played an all time thriller with St Paul losing on a last second THS FG 25-22. This year a gimpy Trevon Reed for THS means there won't be nearly as much intrigue or excitement. Thibodaux beat STM in OT last week with Reed playing last week with a knee brace on his left knee and he appeared to be about 80% healthy. That won't be enough to counteract the bruising running game and efficient passing game that ST PAUL will put on the Tigers undersized defense.


South Lafourche at Westgate

Another weird matchup. SLHS went 1-9 last year, got a new coach and so far is 10-1 this year. Westgate had their usual up and down regular season but they are a different team every year in the playoffs. SLHS is huge across the OL and DL and they will use that size to wear out the undersized Westgate lines. Westgate doesn't have much depth either and that will be a big problem for them against the Tarpons. Tigers QB Diontae Spencer is a game breaker capable of winning a game single handedly on offense but I suspect SLHS will do to Westgate what STM did to them. Use a big OL to mash the Tigers front 7, wear them out and keep Spencer off the field. If SLHS doesn't turn the ball over and contains Spencer then SOUTH LAFOURCHE should win this comfortably.

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Week 10 picks A word about the numbers by each team. The saints with a +87 does not mean
they are 87 point favorites. This means they are 87 team units better than the
rams based on the 6 measurements I use.

The strongest team in the league would have a 6
the weakest team would have 192.

So the numbers in the tables show how far apart the two
teams are on this scale from 6 to 192

The top teams seem to be coming to the top.There are two groups all bunched up
so there are 7 games too close to call this week.

THU, NOV 12-Byes: NY Giants, Houston


#23 Bears....@..#21 49ers tctc

SUN, NOV 15

#25 Bills....@..#25 Titans tctc-tied
# 6 Saints...@..#28 Rams
#28 Bucs.....@..#20 Dolphins
#27 Lions....@..#11 Vikings
#24 Jaguars..@..# 8 Jets
#12 Bengals..@..# 2 Steelers
#12 Broncos..@..#22 Redskins
#18 Falcons..@..#17 Panthers tctc
#31 Chiefs...@..#30 Raiders tctc
# 3 Cowboys..@..# 3 Packers tctc-tied
#18 Seahawks.@..#14 Cardinals tctc
# 7 Eagles...@..#15 Chargers
# 1 Pats.....@..# 5 Colts tctc

MON, NOV 16

# 9 Ravens...@..#32 Browns




49ers........+ 3 tctc
bills/titans tied
saints.......+87
dolphins.....+43
vikings......+75
jets.........+48
steelers.....+21
broncos......+32
panthers.....+ 3 tctc
raiders......+11 tctc
cowboys/packers tied
cardinals....+10 tctc
eagles.......+30
pats........+12
ravens.......+98

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week 9 results Once again, there are a lot of teams not living up to
the numbers they were able to generate early in the year.
So they are getting their butts kicked by teams that have decided
they want to be closer to the top. That leaves a ladder
that is still in turmoil after 9 weeks. Maybe the nfl is getting
the parity it really wants, but I don't think so.
The games that were too close to call went 1-3 and the rest of
the games went 5-4. Overall that's 6-7 which is the first time in years
the rankings have had a losing record after 9 weeks.

Time to go rerank and see what the new ladder looks like.

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Week 9 rankings Posted November 12th, 2009 07:09 AM IP
-New post-
ranking after week 9

I measure 6 things to develop my rankings. A perfect team
would have 6 power points. The worst team would have
192. It usually starts off wacky but the cream seems to
rise to the top as we move from week to week. They are bunched
up in groups right now. That's because the cream hasn't had
enough games to rise to the top yet.I have every confidence that
it will as we move along. It has for years.

These are the new rankings after the week 8 games.

For those who don't understand, any team above would
currently be favored over any team ranked below them


1. pats........47

2. steelers....54
3. cowboys.....58
3. packers.....58
5. colts.......59
6. saints......61

7. eagles......65
8. jets........66
9. ravens......67
10. giants......68
11. vikings.....71
12. broncos.....75
12. bengals.....75

14. cardinals...94
15. chargers....95
16. texans......99
17. panthers...101
18. falcons....104
18. seahawks...104
20. dolphins...105
21. 49ers......106
22. redskins...107
23. bears......109
24. jaguars....114

25. titans.....133
25. bills......133
27. lions......146
28. bucs.......148
28. rams.......148
30. raiders....153
31. chiefs.....164
32. browns.....165

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5A Bracket - 1st Round Picks 32 Shreve at 1 Rummel - Rummel

Rummel is 10-0, Shreve is a mediocre team in a weak district a long way from home

17 Airline at 16 Jesuit - Jesuit
Jesuit is 6-4 and has played some very good teams tough, Airline is another mediocre team in a weak district a long way from home

24 South Terrebonne at 9 Barbe - Barbe

Barbe has two tough losses (Evangel and Rummel) but they have been winning with their 2nd and 3rd string QBs and ST doesn't matchup with them at all

25 Lagrange at 8 Hahnville - Hahnville

this shouldn't be a game at all but Lagrange is better than a 25 seed and could give HHS a scare for a little while. HHS will be too much for them at home.

28 Central Lafourche at 5 South Lafourche - South Lafourche

rematch of week 10 that SLHS won comfortably and I expect them to win comfortably again

21 Westgate at 12 Mandeville - Westgate

Westgate is better than a 21 seed and Mandeville is worse than a 12 seed. Westgate has a difference maker at QB (Diontae Spencer) and they are a speed team that has been hurt by all of the bad weather we have had on 8 of the 10 Friday nights. Mandeville hasn't played a team with a winning record since 9/25 (they lost).

20 West Jefferson at 13 Ouachita Parish - OPHS

WJ lost their first three then won 7 in a row and I want to give them some love but SELA public schools always seem to have trouble when they have to go up north in the playoffs. So give this to OPHS with the home field advantage

29 New Iberia at 4 Central - Central

This one will be over early. CHS may be the best offensive team in 5A and NISH won't be able to stop them.

30 Terrebonne at 3 Acadiana - Acadiana

Veer machine rolls all over Terrebonne and sets up a nifty Shaw at Acadiana Rd 2 game

19 Higgins at 14 Shaw - Shaw

Higgins lost to Shaw in week one and I expect more of the same although it could be closer than some would think

22 Denham Springs at 11 Catholic BTR - Catholic

the two best teams DSHS played this season (CHSBR and Central) drummed them and I don't expect this to much of a game.

27 Comeaux at 6 Dutchtown - Comeaux

Dutchtown has some nice wins and some ugly losses but I can't help but think they are over seeded at 6. Comeaux is under seeded at 27 because they lost some games they shouldn't have (NISH and Carencro). I am predicting an upset here on a hunch because Dutchtown is very one dimensional and Comeaux is tough against the run. Comeaux QB Michael Strentz has been nursing a bad shoulder but he should be able to make some plays with his legs and throw it enough to keep Dutchtown off balance. If DTown blows them out I won't be surprised, if Comeaux wins a squeaker I won't be surprised either.

26 Destrehan at 7 St Paul- St Paul

St Paul's has a big OL and a smart, physical football team that won't beat themselves. Destrehan has come back to reality after winning 5A back to back and St Paul's wins comfortably.

23 Thibodaux at 10 St Thomas More - STM

the most interesting matchup in round one for various reasons. Thibodaux has some ugly losses when they were playing without QB Trevon Reed. STM has played a brutal schedule and done far more than the experts forecasted for them in the preseason. STM's strengths are the OL and DL, Thibodaux's OL and DL are average at best. I don't think Reed is enough to beat STM by himself, but he is enough to keep it close until the STM power running game wears the Tigers out.

18 St Aug at 15 East St John - St Aug

Two teams that have feasted on the weak on their schedule and struggled with the better teams on their schedule. St Aug gets the edge because I think St Aug is better defensively than ESJ.

31 Brother Martin at 2 West Monroe - West Monroe

won't be a game at all and sets up an interesting 2nd round matchup with WMHS at St Aug




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Tags: LHSAA, 5A, high school football


TUba Top 101 Week 10 - Bama takes #1 spot, LSU falls to #13 1 Alabama 1023 29 623 9 0 1.000
2 Florida 988 39 588 9 0 1.000
3 TCU 961 52 561 9 0 1.000
4 Texas 955 54 555 9 0 1.000
5 Oregon 952 6 729 7 2 0.778
6 Georgia Tech 951 25 631 9 1 0.900
7 Southern Cal 925 8 703 7 2 0.778
8 Iowa 916 36 596 9 1 0.900
9 Cincinnati 904 83 504 9 0 1.000
10 Boise St 891 91 491 9 0 1.000
11 Miami FL 881 14 659 7 2 0.778
12 Arizona 875 10 675 6 2 0.750
13 LSU 874 18 652 7 2 0.778
14 Virginia Tech 867 4 733 6 3 0.667
15 Ohio State 866 28 626 8 2 0.800
16 Wisconsin 840 32 618 7 2 0.778
17 Penn State 831 38 591 8 2 0.800
18 Oregon St 823 9 690 6 3 0.667
19 Pittsburgh 817 81 506 8 1 0.889
20 Stanford 804 11 671 6 3 0.667
21 Utah 789 98 478 8 1 0.889
22 California 788 16 655 6 3 0.667
23 Clemson 776 22 643 6 3 0.667
- Houston 776 101 465 8 1 0.889
25 Notre Dame 775 23 642 6 3 0.667
26 Oklahoma St 771 56 549 7 2 0.778
27 Brigham Young 769 57 546 7 2 0.778
- West Virginia 769 58 546 7 2 0.778
29 Auburn 724 50 564 7 3 0.700
30 Boston College 716 43 582 6 3 0.667
31 South Florida 711 77 511 6 2 0.750
32 Fresno St 710 45 577 6 3 0.667
33 Navy 703 60 543 7 3 0.700
34 UCLA 696 3 740 4 5 0.444
35 Georgia 693 19 649 5 4 0.556
36 North Carolina 691 53 558 6 3 0.667
37 Arkansas 680 24 636 5 4 0.556
38 Mississippi 678 59 545 6 3 0.667
39 South Carolina 677 35 597 6 4 0.600
40 Tennessee 673 27 629 5 4 0.556
41 Minnesota 669 12 669 5 5 0.500
42 Washington 661 1 794 3 6 0.333
43 Idaho 660 84 500 7 3 0.700
44 Florida St 659 7 704 4 5 0.444
45 Nebraska 657 70 524 6 3 0.667
46 Kentucky 653 34 608 5 4 0.556
47 Texas Tech 644 75 511 6 3 0.667
48 Troy 640 112 418 7 2 0.778
49 Central Michigan 638 113 415 7 2 0.778
50 Oklahoma 632 40 588 5 4 0.556
- Temple 632 114 409 7 2 0.778
52 Michigan St 621 30 621 5 5 0.500
53 Missouri 610 49 566 5 4 0.556
54 Nevada 609 79 509 5 3 0.625
55 Rutgers 606 115 406 6 2 0.750
56 Mississippi St 604 20 649 4 5 0.444
57 Northwestern 591 76 511 6 4 0.600
58 Marshall 587 61 543 5 4 0.556
- East Carolina 587 62 542 5 4 0.556
- Kansas St 587 80 507 6 4 0.600
61 Arizona St 585 26 629 4 5 0.444
62 Purdue 582 13 662 4 6 0.400
63 SMU 577 67 533 5 4 0.556
64 Air Force 575 88 495 6 4 0.600
65 Wake Forest 573 17 653 4 6 0.400
66 Texas A&M 549 82 505 5 4 0.556
67 Connecticut 539 41 584 4 5 0.444
68 Central Florida 529 94 484 5 4 0.556
69 Michigan 528 69 528 5 5 0.500
70 Middle Tennessee St 525 116 392 6 3 0.667
71 Virginia 524 15 657 3 6 0.333
72 Kansas 523 97 479 5 4 0.556
73 Iowa St 521 72 521 5 5 0.500
74 Syracuse 515 21 649 3 6 0.333
75 Northern Illinois 513 118 379 6 3 0.667
76 Duke 507 102 463 5 4 0.556
77 Ohio U. 498 120 364 6 3 0.667
78 San Diego St 497 63 542 4 5 0.444
79 Wyoming 495 65 539 4 5 0.444
80 UNLV 492 47 572 4 6 0.400
81 Louisiana-Monroe 491 106 447 5 4 0.556
82 Indiana 483 51 563 4 6 0.400
83 Southern Miss 480 109 436 5 4 0.556
84 Illinois 477 33 610 3 6 0.333
- Bowling Green 477 71 521 4 5 0.444
86 Baylor 469 74 514 4 5 0.444
87 Colorado 462 37 595 3 6 0.333
88 Colorado St 460 31 620 3 7 0.300
89 North Carolina St 451 86 495 4 5 0.444
90 San Jose St 445 5 731 1 6 0.143
91 Louisville 441 46 575 3 6 0.333
92 Alabama-Birmingham 436 96 480 4 5 0.444
93 Washington St 430 2 741 1 8 0.111
94 Louisiana-Lafayette 422 119 377 5 4 0.556
95 Tulane 408 64 542 3 6 0.333
96 Toledo 407 105 452 4 5 0.444
97 Tulsa 401 107 446 4 5 0.444
98 Hawai`i 385 73 519 3 6 0.333
99 Kent St 383 117 383 5 5 0.500
100 Louisiana Tech 376 78 509 3 6 0.333
101 Western Michigan 363 108 443 4 6 0.400
102 UTEP 361 89 495 3 6 0.333
103 Maryland 345 48 567 2 7 0.222
104 New Mexico St 344 99 478 3 6 0.333
105 Vanderbilt 342 44 582 2 8 0.200
106 Buffalo 333 100 466 3 6 0.333
107 Utah St 312 66 535 2 7 0.222
108 Florida Atlantic 292 90 492 2 6 0.250
109 Army 288 111 421 3 6 0.333
110 Memphis 277 85 499 2 7 0.222
111 Florida Int'l 273 87 495 2 7 0.222
112 Miami OH 263 42 583 1 9 0.100
113 Akron 262 95 484 2 7 0.222
114 Arkansas St 257 103 457 2 6 0.250
115 North Texas 232 104 454 2 7 0.222
116 Rice 154 55 554 0 9 0.000
117 New Mexico 132 68 532 0 9 0.000
118 Ball St 113 110 424 1 8 0.111
119 Western Kentucky 85 92 485 0 9 0.000
- Eastern Michigan 85 93 485 0 9 0.000

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NCAA All time wins list in basketball 1 Kentucky 1,989
2 North Carolina 1,986
3 Kansas 1,971
4 Duke 1,877
5 Syracuse 1,754


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Week 8 results Well this was a strange week. The 5 games that were
listed as too close to call all went in the direction
of the lower ranked team. I would have expected them
to go 3-2 or 2-3 but not 0-5.

The other 8 games went 6-2, and neither loss surprises me.

both games were within 2 slots of being too close to call.
Put Favre in that setting with that much emotion and he will
probably play like he did. I remember the week he lost his father and how he played that week.

The Broncos have had a record better than their efficiency number would indicate all year. So coming back to earth a little isn't surprising.The ravens efficiency number has been better than their record indicates so it really isn't a surprise either.

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Week 8 matchups and picks SUN, NOV 1

#17 Texans.....@..#25 Bills
#32 Browns.....@..#25 Bears
#17 Seahawks...@..#10 Cowboys
#31 Rams.......@..#28 Lions tctc
#10 Vikings....@..# 4 Packers
#17 49ers......@..# 6 Colts
#14 Dolphins...@..#12 Jets tctc
# 2 broncos....@..# 8 Ravens
#29 Raiders....@..#16 Chargers
#23 Jaguars....@..#26 Titans tctc
# 5 Giants.....@..# 8 Eagles tctc
#17 Panthers...@..#15 Cardinals tctc
#22 Falcons....@..# 3 Saints


·Bye: Cincinnati, Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington


texans..........+ 17
bears...........+ 46
cowboys.........+ 30
lions...........+ 11 tctc
packers.........+ 26
colts...........+ 48
jets............+ 6 tctc
broncos.........+ 24
chargers........+ 53
jaguars.........+ 17 tctc
giants..........+ 17 tctc
cardinals.......+ 13 tctc
saints..........+ 58

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