First a word about the magic number. This ia a calculation that determines the overall efficiency of a team. As you watch me post this each week you can see how well the number falls in line with the team's record. If the record doesn't match up, you can bet that something strange happened in that game to cause someone a loss.
First let's look at the value of the number. The saints are riding high right now. I don't know if I have ever had a number that high after 2 games.Usually after 2 games, even the best teams are down to something like .50 or less.
Now the good part. Usually- any team that can maintain a .25 number for the season will win their division. Once again- a peyton manning type performance (warner,brees,favre,brady) can overcome this number and at the end of the year still get in. But usually not.
Here is something else to watch for. Usually by the time all the teams have played 6 games- most of the division winners are already indicated based on the magic number. The numbers can fluctuate quite a bit for 6 weeks then it won't move much since it is a cumulative number.
the reason this number measures overall efficiency is in the way it is calculated. It is basically a passing stat. However, if a team scores by rushing, field goal,by interception run back for a td, fumble taken in for a score, etc- that raises the overall number. So a high number tells me a team is performing in many areas and not just 1.
Keep an eye on it or skip it as you see fit. It's just another something for me to do during the season.
Here are the teams with the magic numbers and current records.
You have to get rid of the tunnel vision if you are going to evaluate a football team. Some look at the saints 45-27 win in week one and think they are off to the races.
Nothing could be farther from the truth. That win is meaningless for now. Winning football is a process. Not winning a game.Back away and get a broader view than that one game.
What is important about the game? There is one area that pretty much tells you what kind of season a team ends up with.It is also the one area that the saints have failed miserably in ever since Grant took Richmond.
Let's take a look at last years final standings. This table shows where teams ended up ranked according to their points allowed defense, whether they got 10 wins or not, and if they made the playoffs or not.
10 out of the top 15 teams got 10 wins- that's pretty normal.
9 out of those 10 made the playoffs and it should have been 14/15. The chargers and the cardinals shouldn't have been there but that's another story.
This chart tells us to get to the playoffs you need 10 wins, and to get 10 wins, you need to be in the top 47% in points allowed ranking.
Still way to tunnelized. Let's back way out and look at the Saints.Last year they were 25th in points allowed defense for the season.
But look at the bright side. THEY WERE NUMBER 1 IN SCORING
How did that work out? How deep in the playoffs did that take them? It didn't even get them to the playoffs. What kept them out of the playoffs? A points allowed defense ranked 25th.
And THAT'S BEEN TRUE FOR YEARS AND YEARS.wHEN WILL SOMEONE FIX IT?
Now the off season- The coaches have a lot of time to work on their points allowed defense, get free agents, then camp, then two a days, then preseason games, and even a new defensive coach.
Then they have the weakest team in football for the first game and a great chance to see the improvement in the defense.
Result? The points allowed defense ranked 26th in week 1. Not a thing has changed. If I was a Saints fan, I would be looking for a bayou to throw some coaches and one owner in.
Before you think I am over reacting to one game, you haven't looked at the numbers like I do. This has been a cancer with the Saints for a lifetime and they have never hired anyone to fix the problem. Til they do, they go nowhere- but they go with the flair and exuberience they always do.
Here's your saints history- the year, the quarterback,the points allowed defense, and whether they got 10 wins or not
PRETTY SICKENING- 6 seasons since the merger with 10 wins-
