Based on test results from the TUbalatoratron (the machine which produces the TUba Top 101), I am predicting that
a win by LSU will cause LSU to rise 3 spots in the BCS computer polls (from 0.69 to 0.81)
a loss by LSU will cause LSU to drop 4 spots in the BCS computer polls (from 0.69 to 0.53)
This test was done by taking all games played to date, and adding an extra game for LSU v Alabama. So the assumption is that the net effect of ratings changes from teams playing other teams will sum to zero. In other words - no major upsets.
So for instance, if a team that is higher than 3 spots above us loses (other than Bama), then we will rise 4 spots on a win instead of 3.
LSU's TOTAL CHANCE OF MAKING IT TO THE BCS NC GAME = 3%
(see posts just below for further calculations)
Bear in mind that in 07, after losing to Arky, it was 2%
Tuba, let's get straight to the point...what are the chances of LSU making the title game if we win out, and Iowa, Boise St, Cincinati all go undefeated?
quote: Tuba, let's get straight to the point...what are the chances of LSU making the title game if we win out, and Iowa, Boise St, Cincinati all go undefeated
Previous test results have indicated teams normally have about a 25 rating point advantage at home. So - adding 25 rating points to the home teams (and calling the Georgia Dome neutral):
LSU's chances of beating Alabama = 35% Louisiana Tech = 96% Ole Miss = 80% Arky = 85% Florida = 34%
Multiplying all these numbers together, our chance of winning out the rest of the season, including SECCG is 8%
Our chance of winning out the remainder of the regular season is 23%
As for the chances of the undefeated teams winning out, I will have to do a bit more computation.
IMO - an undefeated BCS team will get in over us. However, LSU will jump any non BCS undefeated team, and will jump any 1 loss team after winning the SEC CG.
So - other than winning out - for LSU to get in, 2 out of the three undefeated BCS teams outside of the SEC must lose a game.
Iowa's chances of winning out = 60% Cinci's chances of winning out = 36% Texas's chances of winning out = 67%
Chances that 2 or more of these three teams loses a game = 43%
Chances that LSU would get snubbed if it won out = 57%
Most likely BCS NC matchup - Florida v Texas.
Most likely NC matchup if the winner of the SECCG has one loss - Texas v Iowa
With all due respect, this is a rediculous number. Their chances of winning at Ohio State are not going to be 50% (probably...according to the Gold Sheet and Sports Books will be about 30%). How can their chances of winning out be 60%.
With all due respect, this is a rediculous number. Their chances of winning at Ohio State are not going to be 50% (probably...according to the Gold Sheet and Sports Books will be about 30%). How can their chances of winning out be 60%.
OK.....I just give more respect to entities that are actually reponsible for their opinions. In other words, if Iowa's chances of winning out were really 6o% and oddsmakers think their chances are 20%, Im just more likely to go with the 20% number. No disrespect....but sorry I do not believe their chances are any (Actually) better than 20% to win out.
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