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Trader82
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 14 |
| Registered on: | 8/21/2020 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
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re: The good news
Posted by Trader82 on 9/16/22 at 3:54 pm
If I'm wrong, then I'm okay with it. A rally would be welcome as I would be happy to add to my position.
I have been doing this long enough to know: Being wrong in the short-term is of little consequence, as I will likely be right in the long term.
The end of day orderflow did show a lot of ...
3
re: The good news
Posted by Trader82 on 9/16/22 at 3:24 pm
ahh... got it. I didn't understand. But I'm sure others had questions about circuit breaker. So, hopefully, the post wasn't for naught.
Yields, another pending FED rate hike (.75 likely), liquidity being pulled (not just by FED, but other participants as well), and other deteriorating macro cond...
re: The good news
Posted by Trader82 on 9/16/22 at 1:59 pm
To keep mkts from moving too far in either direction in a single day, they use price limits (A.K.A. Circuit Breakers or limit up/down). We very rarely hit these limits. ES (SPX futures) the last one was hit MAR 2020 (twice, if memory serves me correctly).
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/cou...
re: The good news
Posted by Trader82 on 9/16/22 at 1:31 pm
I will add one additional note, put wall is 3900 and call wall moved down to 3950. This is usually a bearish sign. But today is OPEX -- and OPEX day is like Christmas morning as a kid, anything is possible. If they're able to suppress VX, that will push mkts higher. If we fill the gap in SPX, I coul...
re: The good news
Posted by Trader82 on 9/16/22 at 1:12 pm
Sure. Most of my focus is on indices and commodities -I am a position and swing trader focusing on orderflow. I will have limited engagement with stocks.
As for indices today: a lot of the put gamma will run off. This will cause additional selling. A move lower is very likely today (looking prim...
re: When to pay off the mortgage
Posted by Trader82 on 9/16/22 at 11:56 am
That is correct. What is your point?
The question is becoming: why does this matter so much to you? You have now made it clear that you're starting to dig into my account history. Why do you feel so insecure that others cannot have a difference in opinion? This has now gone from just a differenc...
re: Who wears the financial pants?
Posted by Trader82 on 9/16/22 at 10:30 am
Same for us. My wife (no pics) is very engaged in all financial decisions. She does most of the shopping for the household. Most of the day-to-day stuff - bills, taxes, budgets, investment decisions, etc is handled by me. With one notable exception: I am a commodities trader, and I have handed my P&...
re: When to pay off the mortgage
Posted by Trader82 on 9/16/22 at 10:13 am
oh... Got it! Nope, just this account. I have no need for multiple accounts.
...
re: When to pay off the mortgage
Posted by Trader82 on 9/16/22 at 9:28 am
Just curious: What will your argument be when the FED pivots or we head into deflation?
The main issue with your argument is, that it's all math and fails to take account of other variables. It's also just looking at current mkt conditions and not where mtks are headed.
I'm unsure what I'm su...
re: When to pay off the mortgage
Posted by Trader82 on 9/16/22 at 8:45 am
[quote]https://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/display.aspx?sp=104240885&s=4&p=104237807[/quote]
Interesting perspective!
According to the usdebtclock(.org), the US currently owes $30 Trillion. Many consider this long-term debt. What is your view on this? In your view are we properly hedged against...
re: When to pay off the mortgage
Posted by Trader82 on 9/16/22 at 8:34 am
I can get behind that too. After all, she is all-knowing. Just ask her!...
re: When to pay off the mortgage
Posted by Trader82 on 9/16/22 at 8:18 am
I say if you have the money pay it off today! Besides a credit card that's used for household purchases (that's paid off monthly), I owe nothing to no one. I own many properties this way. It's less paperwork and stress. For those who would argue with this and want to talk about the delta between sav...
re: The good news
Posted by Trader82 on 9/15/22 at 12:51 pm
The majority of the gamma is from a JPM SPX collar at 4005. That is what buoyed mkts thus far. You also have VIX OPEX and roll (VX futures) next week. Any suppression of volatility will likely ignite vanna/charm flows, which will push mkts higher. Additionally, what has not happened is very importan...
re: Options Trading Thread
Posted by Trader82 on 9/15/22 at 11:50 am
McMillan on Options
https://www.amazon.com/McMillan-Options-Lawrence-G/dp/0471678759/ref=asc_df_0471678759/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=266023323049&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=1001685444268802466&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9025516&hvtargid=pla-571330506695&psc=1
...
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