re: Miss River Flood Thread 2016, river back on the rise again.......

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There is barely enough snow and ice up there right now to make a different if it all melted.


true, buts its only january, lot of winter left, and the river is already high.....it doesn't go down fast

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Our staff meteorologist, Bill Frederick, points out that there have been six years since 1950 that contained strong El Nino patterns (1958, 1972/1973, 1982/1983, 1987/1988, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016). With the exception of 1958 which remained El Nino throughout the year, the other five years, transitioned from El Nino to neutral during the spring/early summer months and neutral to La Nina during the summer/early fall months. This represents the transition expected this year. Here are the peak crests at the Cairo gauge for years when the strong El Nino pattern transitioned to neutral during the spring/early summer months:

Winter crest Spring crest
1973 47.2' on 12/24/1972 55.6' on 04/01/1973
1983 48.0' on 12/31/1982 54.2' on 05/08/1983
1988 Severe drought
1998 41.8' on 1/13/1998 51.2' on 04/22/1998
2016 56.1' on 1/4/2016 yet to be determined

It is way too early to determine if the valley will experience significant spring flooding. Existing conditions in the watershed, though, when coupled with the expected transition from a strong El Nino pattern to neutral and eventually La Nina patterns this year, point to a well above average risk of significant flooding this spring.

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It would be the (hands down) largest disaster the WORLD has ever seen. The Mississippi potentially would have met the Sabine River on the Texas line.

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Dude was legit crazy.

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