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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 5/13/24 at 10:56 am to
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2578 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 10:56 am to
Institute for the Study of War
@TheStudyofWar
3/ Russian forces are reaping the benefits of the West's long-term restriction on Ukraine using Western-provided weapons to strike legitimate military targets on Russian territory — territory that Russian forces now depend on to sustain their offensive ops in northern Kharkiv.

4/ Kremlin information operations encouraging Western self-deterrence likely aimed to allow Russian forces to build up and launch offensive operations without the threat of Ukrainian strikes against military and logistics assets.


This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 11:20 am
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
643 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 11:16 am to
Are you doubting Reagan himself, on a televised statement?
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
17956 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 11:18 am to
quote:

. I don't believe the Russian casuality numbers Ukraine and the western media report, but I think its safe to say their numbers are higher than Ukraine's, and for morale's sake I don't see the benefit in taking the losses it would require to capture Kharkiv.


There are lots of videos showing that a significant part of the Russian invaders in that are are just unsupported infantry, which is why the losses are so high.

One thing that I don't know is whether that is because Russia is running low on available armor, or it's a question of logistics -- I would guess the latter.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9613 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 11:28 am to
quote:

Russian men are real men and they can pump it with their hands.


It's because when not "kissing icons" they pump each other in the trenches
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
643 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 11:29 am to
quote:

quote:
Russia must be full of very very low IQ people



Drinking + Pregnancy = Low IQs

Plenty of FASD manifesting there, especially in children in orphanages.


A similar thing that happened in China and Vietnam and North Korea and Cuba and any other Communist country was pioneered in Russia... the "smart people" were too smart for their own good and a threat to the collective, so they.were sent somewhere to be worked to death if not just murdered in "Cultural Revolutions."

This is actually a Chinese tradition (a big reason behind the construction of the Great Wall was that the Emperor placed so much importance on it that the educated class had to work in constructing it right alongside the peasants, which did away with dissenters).

An educated middle-class is the driver of any revolution. Some dictators figured out that if you diminish that segment of society you don't get rebellions. If the people are barely surviving they don't have the will to rebel and accept whatever happens.

I'd say Putin himself knew this lesson...

The education systems then become more geared towards producing obedience than "critical thinking." You get a society of obedient drones.
This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 2:44 pm
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
643 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 11:33 am to
quote:

Several German politicians from different political parties expressed support for using NATO air defense systems stationed in NATO member states to shoot down Russian drones over western Ukraine.


I was waiting for this... if we can shoot down anything headed towards Israelm and get Jordan to participate, why the frick aren't we doing it in Ukraine?

"Because Iran doesn't have nukes" is not a good answer or message...
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2120 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 11:53 am to
quote:

using NATO air defense systems stationed in NATO member states


quote:

why the frick aren't we doing it in Ukraine?


We still aren't letting them use weapons we gave them on targets in Russia, this seems like even a step further than that.

We assassinated an Iranian general via airstrike, we would never do that to a Russian general even if they were in another country like Solemani was when Trump ordered the airstrike on him. Whether "because they don't have nukes" is the reason or not, we certainly have shown to treat Iran differently than Russia in terms of hostile actions.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40187 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

Based on this message, and others posted recently... we can expect Kharkiv to fall imminently, right? I mean if this is a crisis that Ukraine is simply ignoring, the collapse must be imminent. The lines should crumble soon, as in the next 30-60 days, right?


That’s another of Lima Whiskey only trusting Russian sources coming back to bite him in the arse. Russian propaganda is ignoring the facts that Ukraine had not prepared significant defenses or troop placements in the villages that Russia has “overrun.” All Ukraine had were delaying forces on the front. They are acting like Ukraine doesn’t have other forces in the area. The Russian sources are also playing up the fact that they are in the village of Hlyboke roughly 14 miles from Kharkiv. They are ignoring the fact that the Hkyboke is roughly 3 miles from the Russians/Ukrainian border. They are also ignoring the fact that Russia has been telegraphing its intentions for months so much that Ukraine has been fortifying the Kharkiv oblasts since the end of February. It’s way too early to say if Russia will or will not succeed, but I am saying that the situation is not the pants down catastrophe for Ukraine that the Russian sources are playing it up as.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40187 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 12:46 pm to
quote:

using NATO air defense systems stationed in NATO member states quote:why the frick aren't we doing it in Ukraine? We still aren't letting them use weapons we gave them on targets in Russia, this seems like even a step further than that.


Jake Sullivan told Poland and Romania that they can’t use Patriot missiles to intercept Russian missiles that enter Polish or Romanian airspace. Romania supposedly said ok we will look into giving a Patriot missile system to Ukraine and let Ukraine shoot the missiles down. Jake Sullivan is a coward and is so scared of escalation that he has f**ked Ukraine more than Putin has.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40187 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 12:49 pm to
quote:

It looks like Shoigu is done for. Will he return to Tuva and throat sing?


Shoigu will likely have a fatal heart attack or fall out of a window in the next 60 days.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40187 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 12:54 pm to
quote:

I was waiting for this... if we can shoot down anything headed towards Israelm and get Jordan to participate, why the frick aren't we doing it in Ukraine? "Because Iran doesn't have nukes" is not a good answer or message...


Sullivan and Biden are afraid of escalation not because Russia has nukes. They are afraid of escalating things in Ukraine because if Russia decides to go all in and launch additional mobilization those troops would hit the battlefield in September or October. Ukraine might not fall but it will have setbacks in that scenario and that would be the final nail in Biden’s reelection coffin. Sullivan and Biden only care about getting Ukraine past the election.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
17956 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 1:41 pm to
quote:

Sullivan and Biden only care about getting Ukraine past the election.


If so, it was a terribly dumb strategy. Biden would be doing much better in polls right now if he'd provided ATACMS and cluster munitions to Ukraine before their offensive last year and it had been successful. If Ukraine were already flying F-16s, it would help. All the delay just accentuates the perception of Biden as weak. Biden is too old to politically survive the perception of being weak -- the perception of weakness plays into voters' primary concern about him.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2578 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 1:46 pm to
the Lyuty is reported to be responsible for approximately 80% of the refinery strikes...

Sanctions for 1000 kilometers. The story of the Ukrainian drone "Lyuty", which burns Russian refineries

ROMAN ROMANIUK — MONDAY, 13 MAY 2024, 05:30

How then the Ukrainian "Lyuty" in the conditions of total war went from a single sample to the main arsonist of Russian factories and airfields, why they were afraid to launch it, and how the competition of special services gave the drone a chance to become a truly serial weapon, Ukrainska Pravda investigated.

Ukrainska Pravda managed to communicate with a very wide range of unique people involved in the production and use of Lyuty. But there won't be any authorized citation in this text. After reading, you will understand why.

article requires translation.

Ukrainska Pravda

English summary of the Ukrainska Pravda article.

Militarnyi
This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 1:54 pm
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2120 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

if he'd provided ATACMS and cluster munitions to Ukraine


quote:

If Ukraine were already flying F-16s


quote:

All the delay just accentuates the perception of Biden as weak


Not to defend him at all, but with the lunatics he has in his administration who knows what kind of advice he is getting from the supposed "experts" in their respective areas. Biden has been very progressive for someone who was a milquetoast moderate dem for decades, which should tell you that there are others around him actually steering the ship.

Maybe there is a gap between Washington and Kiev in terms of communicating tactics and needs on the battlefield?

If you're more cynical, maybe we are just grinding Russia down and using Ukraine to do it.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
643 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 1:57 pm to
quote:

Sullivan and Biden are afraid of escalation not because Russia has nukes. They are afraid of escalating things in Ukraine because if Russia decides to go all in and launch additional mobilization those troops would hit the battlefield in September or October. Ukraine might not fall but it will have setbacks in that scenario and that would be the final nail in Biden’s reelection coffin. Sullivan and Biden only care about getting Ukraine past the election.


That may indeed be the case... and they're wrong. American voters don't care about anything that is not personal to them... just the economy, and for some abortion... even the border thing is not as important to people who don't live close to the border. Even inflation does not register with people who have enough money that it doesn't matter (and since that class owns stock and inflation is benefitting the stock market and certain types of savings accounts, they might be happy about it). The polls I've seen the war in Ukraine is not in the top 10 issues for Democrats but the ones who do care mostly say there needs to be more aid, who would be Biden's voters, and among Republicans the majority wants the funding of Ukraine to stop. Also, even among young Democrats and college students, Palestine actually rates very low on issues they care about and Jobs/Economy is the overwhelming winner... so we have to consider the "online megaphone/media focus" effect at play... Twitter in particular was something that journalists were obsessed with because it made them seemingly more powerful, and activists were addicted to it... but very few Americans used Twitter... or care what's being said on it, but it was such a focus for the media that you'd think every citizen in the country was glued to it 24/7.
This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 2:48 pm
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
643 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:01 pm to
quote:

Maybe there is a gap between Washington and Kiev in terms of communicating tactics and needs on the battlefield?


According to my buddy - an ex-Marine who served in Afghanistan who volunteered in the Ukrainian Army and just got back in September - "we don't understand what's going on... when the Ukrainians listen to our military people they get fricked up. We don't understand the Russians... this is some ancient grudge shite going on... this isn't polite warfare and we insist on keeping the gloves on. The loser goes extinct."
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
643 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:13 pm to
quote:

If you're more cynical, maybe we are just grinding Russia down and using Ukraine to do it.


I'd say this is pretty much the official stance from the collective West... or "managing the long-term defeat of Russia" as I've seen it called...
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9613 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

Sullivan and Biden only care about getting Ukraine past the election.


Obviously the case ever since Zelensky didn't catch a flight out of Kyiv in February 2022.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2120 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:35 pm to
quote:

According to my buddy - an ex-Marine who served in Afghanistan who volunteered in the Ukrainian Army and just got back in September - "we don't understand what's going on... when the Ukrainians listen to our military people they get fricked up. We don't understand the Russians... this is some ancient grudge shite going on... this isn't polite warfare and we insist on keeping the gloves on. The loser goes extinct."


Maybe. To me it feels more like because we have such a sophisticated military that other countries think we also have good military minds.... which IMO isn't necessarily a given. And even if they are highly competent militarily, the US hasn't fought a conflict like this one since Korea or WW2, and the technology is totally different now. We just don't have current battlefield experience doing the type of fighting that is going on.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40187 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 2:54 pm to
quote:

Maybe there is a gap between Washington and Kiev in terms of communicating tactics and needs on the battlefield?


According to my cousin who worked on the recent house bill, Kyiv has sent a very detailed list of what it needs. The list includes realistic things like more HAWK missiles, more Abrams tanks, etc. It also included things it can’t realistically hope to operate in the near or semi near future like Apache helicopters, and includes things that we don’t export like A10s. Ukraine has told us what they need to win as well as what they would like to have. The problem is all in the Biden administration. They don’t want to escalate the war prior to the election.
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