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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 5/12/24 at 10:27 pm to
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
643 posts
Posted on 5/12/24 at 10:27 pm to
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
643 posts
Posted on 5/12/24 at 10:43 pm to
New York Times 2023: "A Four-Decade Secret: One Man's Story of Sabotaging Carter's Re-election

A prominent Texas politician said he unwittingly took part in a 1980 tour of the Middle East with a clandestine agenda.

It has been more than four decades, but Ben Barnes said he remembers it vividly. His longtime political mentor invited him on a mission to the Middle East. What Mr. Barnes said he did not realize until later was the real purpose of the mission: to sabotage the re-election campaign of the president of the United States.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9613 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 4:53 am to
Your sources aren't the best and neither are the sources of the articles that credible. But then again some bought the made up story by Sy Hersh, another longtime lefty journalist about Nordstream and the CIA blowing it up.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
3719 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 6:27 am to
ISW Update

quote:

Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov as Russian Minister of Defense on May 12, moving Shoigu to the position of Security Council Secretary in place of Nikolai Patrushev. These high-level reshuffles following the Russian presidential election strongly suggest that Putin is taking significant steps towards mobilizing the Russian economy and defense industrial base (DIB) to support a protracted war in Ukraine and possibly prepare for a future confrontation with NATO.

Belousov's nearly decade-long tenure as an economic minister in the Russian federal government and his more recent involvement managing various domestic DIB innovation and drone projects, prepare him well to lead the struggling Russian MoD apparatus.

Shoigu's replacement of Patrushev as Security Council Secretary is in line with Putin's general pattern of quietly sidelining high-level security officials by granting them peripheral roles within the Russian security sphere rather than simply firing them.

Russian offensive efforts to seize Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) are in large part a consequence of the tacit Western policy that Ukrainian forces cannot use Western-provided systems to strike legitimate military targets within Russia.

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct repeat strikes on Russian oil and defense industrial infrastructure, prompting Russian milbloggers to complain about Russian forces' clear and continued inability to defend against these strikes.

Several German politicians from different political parties expressed support for using NATO air defense systems stationed in NATO member states to shoot down Russian drones over western Ukraine.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

Former Roscosmos (Russian space agency) head and ultranationalist figure Dmitry Rogozin highlighted Russian forces' continued difficulty repelling Ukrainian drones on the frontline.


Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2578 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 7:19 am to
Ukrainian forces strike ammunition depot in Luhansk Oblast near Russian border – video
Alona Mazurenko — Monday, 13 May 2024, 14:26

The Ukrainian army targeted a Russian ammunition depot in the seized settlement of Sorokyne, Luhansk Oblast.

Source: Artem Lysohor, the Head of Luhansk Oblast Military Administration, on Telegram; Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti, Militarnyi outlet

Quote from Lysohor: "A munitions warehouse exploded in the occupied Sorokyne (Krasnodon). This is the third emergency in the rear of the Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast this week.

Their military might manage some time without fuel supplies, but the ammunition, which burned very brightly in Sorokyne today, is used up by the enemy quite quickly.

It will take much time to accumulate it somewhere other than the front lines.

The invaders believed that this warehouse was reliable because it was positioned near the Russian Federation's border, about 130 kilometres from the line of contact. But the explosion took place even there.

The Russian military in this area now has a restricted supply of ammunition, which will likely have an impact on their offensive activities."

LINK
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2578 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 7:24 am to
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 May 2024

Since the start of 2024, Russia has highly likely increased its use of light vehicles, such as all-terrain vehicles and off-road motorbikes to transport personnel to the frontlines, and conduct attacks on Ukrainian positions, particularly at night.

In November 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin personally inspected newly acquired Chinese Desertcross 1000-3 all-terrain vehicles from Odes Industries. Russia has reportedly purchased over 2,100 of these vehicles.

It is likely that Russian forces have increasingly resorted to the use of lighter, faster vehicles to conduct reconnaissance of Ukrainian defensive positions, to allow for subsequent engagement using artillery, first-person view (FPV) or one-way attack OWA drones in an effort to consistently degrade Ukrainian forces.

However, in sacrificing armour and firepower for increased mobility, light vehicles are far more vulnerable than their armoured counterparts to an array of weapon systems. Ukrainian FPV drones have already demonstrated their ability to effectively target such light vehicles.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2578 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 7:27 am to
SBU drones attack oil depot, substation in 2 Russian regions overnight

by Kateryna Denisova and The Kyiv Independent news desk May 13, 2024 1:03 PM

A source in Ukraine's security services told the Kyiv Independent that drones operated by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) targeted an oil depot in Belgorod Oblast and an electrical substation in Lipetsk Oblast in Russia overnight on May 13.

SBU drones were behind the attack on the Eletskaya substation in Lipetsk Oblast, where a fire was reported by local Russian authorities, the source said.

The substation reportedly powers the Russian railroad, the Stanovaya oil pumping station, and ensures transit between the Lipetsk, Orel, and Bryansk power systems.

The Oskolneftsnabzhenie oil depot near the city of Stary Oskol in Belgorod Oblast also came under attack, the source said, without specifying the consequences.

LINK
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2578 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 7:44 am to
Jay in Kyiv
@JayinKyiv
Confirming the deluge of brutal videos across telegram, Russia just had its worst 24 hours of human casualties of the entire war.

Russia's kamikaze attack strategy being employed at multiple areas of the front simultaneously.

Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
19390 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 8:08 am to
quote:

?????? #?????? Our sources in the General Staff learned that Syrski will not transfer large reserves to stop the enemy’s offensive in the Kharkov direction; the Ukrainian Armed Forces now have big problems with rotation and personnel. The commander-in-chief does not believe in the seriousness of the Russian army to attack Kharkov, which means there is no need to remove equipment from the eastern front.


LINK

Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40187 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 8:34 am to
quote:

quote:?????? #?????? Our sources in the General Staff learned that Syrski will not transfer large reserves to stop the enemy’s offensive in the Kharkov direction; the Ukrainian Armed Forces now have big problems with rotation and personnel. The commander-in-chief does not believe in the seriousness of the Russian army to attack Kharkov, which means there is no need to remove equipment from the eastern front.


quote:

Lima Whiskey


Maybe that is because moving forces to reinforce Kharkiv would weaken the rest of the front. That is Russia’s goal. Kharkiv is 35 km from the front and Russian forces are getting caught up in the prepared defenses that the Ukrainians have fallen back to. In case you missed it, look at the post above yours. Yesterday was a terrible Mothers Day for a lot of mothers in Russia.

This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 8:37 am
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9613 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 8:42 am to
quote:

targeted an oil depot in Belgorod Oblast and an electrical substation in Lipetsk Oblast in Russia overnight on May 13.


Electricity is also needed to power the pumps at the depot whether pumping out of tank cars or pumping into tank trucks
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
40187 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:40 am to
quote:

targeted an oil depot in Belgorod Oblast and an electrical substation in Lipetsk Oblast in Russia overnight on May 13. Electricity is also needed to power the pumps at the depot whether pumping out of tank cars or pumping into tank trucks


Weak western armies may need electricity to pump oil. Russian men are real men and they can pump it with their hands.
Posted by RuLSU
Chicago, IL
Member since Nov 2007
8088 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:47 am to
Based on this message, and others posted recently... we can expect Kharkiv to fall imminently, right?

I mean if this is a crisis that Ukraine is simply ignoring, the collapse must be imminent. The lines should crumble soon, as in the next 30-60 days, right?
Posted by RuLSU
Chicago, IL
Member since Nov 2007
8088 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:51 am to
quote:

Putin Ousts Shoigu As Russian Defense Minister

BREAKING: Russian President Vladimir Putin will replace Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, the upper house of Russia's parliament, the Federation Council, said.

Huh, that's weird.

Here we have the incredible Russian army, steam-rolling everyone and certain to destroy NATO if ever confronted directly... firing their minister of defense?

I don't get it. According to many in this thread, things are going amazingly well for Russia right now, so why would they fire their minister of defense? That makes no sense to me. Why replace someone who has overseen such tremendous success?
Posted by AGGIES
Member since Jul 2021
5698 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 10:10 am to
T’s & P’s for Shoigu and his family
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
17956 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 10:23 am to
quote:

Based on this message, and others posted recently... we can expect Kharkiv to fall imminently, right?


As I said above, Russia isn't trying to take Kharkiv. They don't have the force structure in that sector to even attempt it.

They are:

1) Diluting Ukrainian strength in other sectors by forcing Ukraine to redeploy troops. This has certainly happened to an extent.

3) Creating a buffer zone to prevent future incursions from the Russian Volunteer Corps and Free Russia Legion.


In those objectives, Russia has been successful so far.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2120 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 10:30 am to
quote:

I don't get it. According to many in this thread, things are going amazingly well for Russia right now, so why would they fire their minister of defense? That makes no sense to me. Why replace someone who has overseen such tremendous success?


I think most realists can see that this hasn't gone well for Russia. I think most realists can also see that Russia would have steamrolled them by now without foreign aid.

I would like to see an argument that things are going well for Ukraine though. You know, two things can be true: Ukraine is starting to show cracks, and Russia has shown to be inept in conflicts where they don't have an overwhelming advantage.

quote:

certain to destroy NATO


Obvious sarcasm there, but its funny since a lot of the most hardcore Ukraine supporters in this thread are certain Putin will march against a NATO country next if he conquers Ukraine.
Posted by RuLSU
Chicago, IL
Member since Nov 2007
8088 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 10:32 am to
quote:

T’s & P’s for Shoigu and his family

I hope Shoigu has some serious "thrown out the window" insurance.

I also wonder who downvoted your post?
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2120 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 10:34 am to
quote:

As I said above, Russia isn't trying to take Kharkiv. They don't have the force structure in that sector to even attempt it.

They are:

1) Diluting Ukrainian strength in other sectors by forcing Ukraine to redeploy troops. This has certainly happened to an extent.

3) Creating a buffer zone to prevent future incursions from the Russian Volunteer Corps and Free Russia Legion.


In those objectives, Russia has been successful so far.


Yep, prodding the lines for weak points. I don't think they even want to try to take over areas like Kharkiv unless there are just massive breaks in the Ukrainian military that would make it relatively easy. I don't believe the Russian casuality numbers Ukraine and the western media report, but I think its safe to say their numbers are higher than Ukraine's, and for morale's sake I don't see the benefit in taking the losses it would require to capture Kharkiv.
Posted by RuLSU
Chicago, IL
Member since Nov 2007
8088 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 10:39 am to
quote:

think most realists can see that this hasn't gone well for Russia. I think most realists can also see that Russia would have steamrolled them by now without foreign aid.

Don't forget that Russia's vaulted 1st Guard got annihilated outside of Kyiv.

Also worth noting: Russia didn't exactly light the world on fire from 2014 - 2022, prior to their full-scale invasion.

Ultimately, this is a wasted argument, though: Ukraine did receive outside assistance, and thus Russia was stymied.

quote:

I would like to see an argument that things are going well for Ukraine though. You know, two things can be true: Ukraine is starting to show cracks, and Russia has shown to be inept in conflicts where they don't have an overwhelming advantage.

Thoughtful and nuanced responses? In this thread?

It's a full-blown war, nobody will "do well" with it. It's clear the counter-offensive was a mistake, and Ukraine would have been best suited to stay on defense and maintain a huge K:D ratio in defensive actions.

IMO, Ukraine "wins" by surviving and joining the EU. They're still on pace for both, so I'd say they're headed in the right direction.
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