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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/9/24 at 4:03 pm to VolSquatch
Posted on 5/9/24 at 4:03 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
I don't think Russia will completely annihilate Ukraine, and they aren't just going to drop tools and go home if they start losing either. There will be a deal of some form struck eventually.
Even a deal doesn’t end the war. Look at Korea for instance.
2
Posted on 5/9/24 at 5:25 pm to doubleb
Rained hard with snow flurries on Russia's Victory Day parade. There wasn't a lot of rolling stock this year and the T-34 was blowing blue smoke.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 7:35 pm to Lee B
quote:
Recent satellite imagery of depleted Russian military vehicle and weapons storage facilities further indicates that Russia is currently sustaining its war effort largely by pulling from storage rather than by manufacturing new vehicles and certain weapons at scale.
No shite? Lima Whiskey said that Russia was producing 1500 new tanks per year. Now who should I believe?
quote:
sustain operations and losses in Ukraine at a level far higher than the current Russian DIB could support, nor will Russia be able to mobilize its DIB to replenish these stores for many years.
What about all the chatter of Russia having converted its economy to a war footing? The pro-Russia posters and Ukraine cannot win posters keep telling us about all the malls that have been converted to factories and stuff. Have they been spreading false information?
Posted on 5/9/24 at 7:50 pm to doubleb
quote:
Look at Korea for instance.
I think both sides would prefer the current setup in Korea to an actual hot conflict
Posted on 5/9/24 at 7:52 pm to Lee B
You said “there will be no deal” now it’s “they have to stick to the deal” which you said wouldn’t happen.
*insert picture of a waffle*
*insert picture of a waffle*
Posted on 5/9/24 at 8:09 pm to VolSquatch
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian President Vladimir Putin used his May 9 Victory Day speech to relitigate his belief that the West is attempting to erase the Soviet Union's contributions to defeating Nazi Germany during the Great Patriotic War (Second World War), a grievance that is at the core of Russia's adversarial perceptions of the West.
Putin seized on a recent meeting with the commanders of several frontline Russian formations to portray himself as an informed and effective Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, aware of the intricacies of the frontline situation and involved in finding solutions to issues that plague Russian forces.
Putin surrounded himself with a number of foreign officials at the Victory Day parade, likely in order to posture himself as an effective statesman capable of galvanizing an alternative coalition to the power structures of the collective West.
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed that the Moldovan government is engaged in a Nazi-like "genocide" in Moldova — a notable inflection in Kremlin officials' rhetoric about Moldova that is likely meant set conditions for a Russian effort to secure control over Moldova and not just some of its regions.
The leaders of the pro-Kremlin Moldovan Victory opposition electoral bloc attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow, further indicating that the Kremlin intends to use these actors to destabilize all of Moldova and attack Moldova's democracy and EU accession process.
Russian forces have markedly increased the rate of ground attacks in eastern Ukraine over the past month, likely reflecting current battlefield conditions and the intent of the Russian military command to secure gains before the arrival of Western military aid to the frontlines.
Russian border guards are withdrawing from much of Armenia as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continues to face domestic backlash for decisions regarding Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Kremlin may seek to capitalize on opposition outrage in Armenia to punish Pashinyan for increasingly pulling away from Russia.
Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) conducted long-range drone strikes against Russian oil depots and refinery infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai and the Republic of Bashkortostan on May 9.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
Russian forces continue to struggle with discipline in their ranks, with some Russian soldiers reportedly killing other members of their units.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 9:10 pm to StormyMcMan
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are continuing their Attacks on Russian Oil Infrastructure tonight, with several One-Way “Suicide” Drones reported to have Struck the “Prevyi Zavod” Petrochemical and Oil Refinery in the Kaluga Region of Northwestern Russia, causing a Major Fire. This same Refinery, which is almost 200 Miles from Ukraine, was also Struck by Ukrainian Drones in March resulting in Serious Damage to Storage and Processing Facilities.
Twitter videos
from the plant's web page...
In April 2019, an agreement was signed with the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation on the modernization of oil refining facilities, according to which investment in the development of the enterprise will amount to at least 60 billion rubles.
The refinery modernization project provides for the creation of the following main technological processes and associated units by 2024: Hydroprocessing Unit (MGK, GODT, GON), isomerization, reforming, ultrasonic testing and a complex of associated hydrogen production, amine regeneration and acid effluent stripping, sulfuric acid production and off-site production
Thus, the implementation of the refinery modernization program in 2024 will make it possible to produce AI-92 motor gasoline and diesel fuels of environmental class K5, in accordance with TR CU13/2011. At the final stage in 2026, with the commissioning of the DCU unit, the processing depth will exceed 85%.
@sentdefender
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are continuing their Attacks on Russian Oil Infrastructure tonight, with several One-Way “Suicide” Drones reported to have Struck the “Prevyi Zavod” Petrochemical and Oil Refinery in the Kaluga Region of Northwestern Russia, causing a Major Fire. This same Refinery, which is almost 200 Miles from Ukraine, was also Struck by Ukrainian Drones in March resulting in Serious Damage to Storage and Processing Facilities.
Twitter videos
from the plant's web page...
In April 2019, an agreement was signed with the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation on the modernization of oil refining facilities, according to which investment in the development of the enterprise will amount to at least 60 billion rubles.
The refinery modernization project provides for the creation of the following main technological processes and associated units by 2024: Hydroprocessing Unit (MGK, GODT, GON), isomerization, reforming, ultrasonic testing and a complex of associated hydrogen production, amine regeneration and acid effluent stripping, sulfuric acid production and off-site production
Thus, the implementation of the refinery modernization program in 2024 will make it possible to produce AI-92 motor gasoline and diesel fuels of environmental class K5, in accordance with TR CU13/2011. At the final stage in 2026, with the commissioning of the DCU unit, the processing depth will exceed 85%.
This post was edited on 5/9/24 at 9:46 pm
Posted on 5/9/24 at 9:13 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
I don't think Russia will completely annihilate Ukraine, and they aren't just going to drop tools and go home if they start losing either. There will be a deal of some form struck eventually.
I think Russia will end up with Crimea + Donbas, Ukraine is allowed to join EU and gain "security guarantees" that makes Ukraine NATO in all but name.
But good lord, Russia had a T-34 on display in their parade? Jesus.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 10:00 pm to RuLSU
quote:
But good lord, Russia had a T-34 on display in their parade? Jesus.
Every year it has had one to celebrate its victory in WWII
Posted on 5/9/24 at 10:34 pm to cypher
quote:
In April 2019, an agreement was signed with the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation on the modernization of oil refining facilities, according to which investment in the development of the enterprise will amount to at least 60 billion rubles.
The refinery modernization project provides for the creation of the following main technological processes and associated units by 2024: Hydroprocessing Unit (MGK, GODT, GON), isomerization, reforming, ultrasonic testing and a complex of associated hydrogen production, amine regeneration and acid effluent stripping, sulfuric acid production and off-site production
Thus, the implementation of the refinery modernization program in 2024 will make it possible to produce AI-92 motor gasoline and diesel fuels of environmental class K5, in accordance with TR CU13/2011. At the final stage in 2026, with the commissioning of the DCU unit, the processing depth will exceed 85%.
The equivalent of $650 million in 2019 which I hate to say is not major money for a large refinery. It's more a NGL's processing plant from wet natural gas.
That was a lot of words to say it isomerizes pentanes plus into an isomerate which is usually around 87 "octane" So it removes sulfur before it poisons the catalyst in the isomerization unit, and before it poisons catalyst in the hydrogen reformer to produce H2 need to isomerize the pentanes plus. The plant also produces likely ethane, propane and butane.
In short at 1.2 million tonnes per year, that is definitely tinker toy for any crude oil even less than the capacity listed of 2,000 BPD. The hydrotreating is far larger in 2010 at 26,000 BPD. The amine unit is to remove the H2S created by the hydrotreating.
Here is the Google Satellite location,,,, PISSANT LINK
That they are hitting where TF they want is a big deal.
It really is a tinker toy as refineries go.
This post was edited on 5/9/24 at 10:42 pm
Posted on 5/9/24 at 11:23 pm to WeeWee
quote:
What about all the chatter of Russia having converted its economy to a war footing? The pro-Russia posters and Ukraine cannot win posters keep telling us about all the malls that have been converted to factories and stuff. Have they been spreading false information?
From tonight
Posted on 5/9/24 at 11:27 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
You said “there will be no deal” now it’s “they have to stick to the deal” which you said wouldn’t happen.
*insert picture of a waffle*
They will be lying if they even agree to a deal. It's what they do.
Posted on 5/10/24 at 4:05 am to ColtRange
quote:
ColtRange
If Russia was attacking civilians in these strikes I would obviously feel differently, they're not though, they're attacking infrastructure.
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Posted on 5/10/24 at 4:10 am to ColtRange
You keep posting about this long and total "war". I thought this was just a special military operation? 
Posted on 5/10/24 at 4:14 am to Lee B
Random Tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
The Czech Republic handed over the first F-16 fighter simulator to one of the tactical aviation brigades.
This was reported by Air Force Commander Mykola Oleschuk.
Its main module is already being tested and prepared for operation by Ukrainian specialists
LINK
quote:
Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland signed an agreement in Vilnius to strengthen control over compliance with EU sanctions against Russia, reports Yle with reference to the Finnish Customs.
It is noted that the agreement will strengthen and unify the EU's control over compliance with visa requirements for Russia, as the EU's external borders play a key role in preventing the circumvention of sanctions.
LINK
quote:
The United States has stopped Russia's illegal access to Starlink
Pentagon officials working with Elon Musk's SpaceX have stopped the unauthorized use of Starlink Internet terminals by the Russian military during the war in Ukraine. This is reported by Bloomberg.
Assistant Pentagon chief John Plumb said: "We have successfully countered Russia's use so far, but I am confident that Russia will continue to try to find ways to use Starlink and other commercial communications systems."
Plumb declined to say what tactics and methods have been used to counter Russia's use of portable communication terminals.
LINK
quote:
Orbán said that Hungary supports the Chinese peace plan for Ukraine
During a joint press conference with the Chinese leader in Budapest, he emphasized that "Europe is on the side of war and the only exception is Hungary calling for a ceasefire and peace talks."
He added that China is one of the pillars of the world order, saying that his country supports the peace plan proposed by the PRC.
LINK
quote:
#Germany will buy three #HIMARS systems from the #US stockpile and transfer them to Ukraine, German Defense Minister Pistorius said.
LINK
quote:
There's some videos circulating this morning allegedly showing heavy Russian shelling of the Kharkiv region overnight and into this morning. Obviously dark videos with no obvious landmarks are impossible to verify but the level of shelling in the videos are Feb 2022 levels.
LINK
Posted on 5/10/24 at 5:04 am to ColtRange
The idea that Ukraine is going to lose because they are running out of men? Silly. It's true that Ukraine has some short-term problems, and those are causing problems on the front lines right now, but Ukraine has lots of opportunities to add more soldiers.
Here's one of them:
Ukraine could recruit up to 20,000 convicts into army, Justice Minister says
Here's one of them:
Ukraine could recruit up to 20,000 convicts into army, Justice Minister says
quote:
Ukraine could fill its ranks with as many as 20,000 convicts in a move that would also help ease overcrowding in Ukrainian prisons, Justice Minister Denys Maliuska told BBC Ukraine in an interview published on May 10.
Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, passed a bill on May 8 that permits those convicted of certain offenses to serve in the military, paving the way for the voluntary mobilization of prisoners.
The proposal was first submitted to the parliament in March as part of Ukraine's efforts to replenish the ranks of the Armed Forces amid the ongoing war with Russia.
Deputy Justice Minister Olena Vysotska told Suspilne in March that the proposal could free up 50,000 recruits among those who had already served their sentence, as well as 26,000 of those who are currently imprisoned.
Maliuska said he supported the bill but that it is up to Ukraine's Armed Forces "to determine who is suitable for them and who is not."
While prisoners who are serving sentences due to "extreme" crimes should be left to serve their sentences, Ukraine could recruit 10,000 to 20,000 convicts, Maliuska estimated.
"The question is in approaches. I say the numbers are completely uncalculated, because depending on each scenario, the number will be different," Maliuska said.
Posted on 5/10/24 at 5:54 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 5/10/24 at 6:38 am to Lee B
But you said there won’t be one at all.
Posted on 5/10/24 at 7:18 am to StormyMcMan
But Cucker Tarlson said Putin is the good guy.
Posted on 5/10/24 at 7:19 am to VolSquatch
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 May 2024
09 May 2024 is Russia's Victory Day which commemorates Russia's victory over Nazism in the 'Great Patriotic War. The major parade took place in Moscow with President Vladimir Putin presiding, following his inauguration on 07 May. Victory day parades were cancelled in 24 cities, primarily those cities in regions that border Ukraine, likely due to poor security. This compares to 21 cancelled parades in 2023.
Although the fly-past was reinstated, with nine SU-30SM and MiG-29 aircraft, as well as six SU-25 attack aircraft, the Moscow parade was reduced in scale with less modern military equipment on display when compared to pre-war parades.
Of the 30 units on parade over two-thirds were sourced from military academies, youth and veteran groups. There were also domestic security and emergency service groups on parade. In total, 9,000 military cadets, veterans, and service personnel took part. This compares to 8,000 in 2023 but lower than the 2021 pre-Ukraine war parade of 11,000.
Whilst there were 61 military vehicles on display, there was an absence of heavy armoured vehicles or tracked military vehicles. The lone ceremonial second world war era T-34 tank which traditionally starts the parade, was the sole Main Battle Tank present. This contrasts with the 2020 Moscow parade which included 20 Main Battle Tanks.
With the significant losses in Russian personnel and equipment as a result of the Ukraine war there was no opportunity for Russia to use the parades to demonstrate military strength.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 May 2024
09 May 2024 is Russia's Victory Day which commemorates Russia's victory over Nazism in the 'Great Patriotic War. The major parade took place in Moscow with President Vladimir Putin presiding, following his inauguration on 07 May. Victory day parades were cancelled in 24 cities, primarily those cities in regions that border Ukraine, likely due to poor security. This compares to 21 cancelled parades in 2023.
Although the fly-past was reinstated, with nine SU-30SM and MiG-29 aircraft, as well as six SU-25 attack aircraft, the Moscow parade was reduced in scale with less modern military equipment on display when compared to pre-war parades.
Of the 30 units on parade over two-thirds were sourced from military academies, youth and veteran groups. There were also domestic security and emergency service groups on parade. In total, 9,000 military cadets, veterans, and service personnel took part. This compares to 8,000 in 2023 but lower than the 2021 pre-Ukraine war parade of 11,000.
Whilst there were 61 military vehicles on display, there was an absence of heavy armoured vehicles or tracked military vehicles. The lone ceremonial second world war era T-34 tank which traditionally starts the parade, was the sole Main Battle Tank present. This contrasts with the 2020 Moscow parade which included 20 Main Battle Tanks.
With the significant losses in Russian personnel and equipment as a result of the Ukraine war there was no opportunity for Russia to use the parades to demonstrate military strength.
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