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Message
re: Options Trading Thread
Posted on 9/16/22 at 10:19 am to LSUtoOmaha
Posted on 9/16/22 at 10:19 am to LSUtoOmaha
So my profit range for APRN is roughly 4.25 to 6.85 now. If we continue to slide down I'll work to lower that range some.
For PRTY it is now 1.40 to 2.50
I wish of course these stocks would show any semblance of a pulse to the upside. However, given the straight carnage, I'm pleasantly surprised I'm not down all that much to this point. Glad I started out very small as these two are more of an experiment for now.
I think the main worry becomes gamma risk as we approach closer to expiration dates.
For PRTY it is now 1.40 to 2.50
I wish of course these stocks would show any semblance of a pulse to the upside. However, given the straight carnage, I'm pleasantly surprised I'm not down all that much to this point. Glad I started out very small as these two are more of an experiment for now.
I think the main worry becomes gamma risk as we approach closer to expiration dates.
This post was edited on 9/16/22 at 11:02 am
1
Posted on 9/16/22 at 6:30 pm to LSUtoOmaha
I’ve been mostly hit and run lately. Quick trades. I’m sure everyone saw the googl trade that didn’t work out as j pow gave the market a reason to dump the next day.
I put this on today:
XBI
sold jan 80/70 put spread to buy the 90/110 call spread. Debit 1.11
I put this on today:
XBI
sold jan 80/70 put spread to buy the 90/110 call spread. Debit 1.11
Posted on 9/16/22 at 7:51 pm to LSUtoOmaha
Not sure this thread is helpful unless ppl talk about selections, strategy, and/or how they end up managing the trade. Otherwise it is just a list of random trades.
Here's a trade I made this morning as an example:
At market open: STO ADBE 9/30/22 260P $1.50
I start with a chart and look for support levels that I can be around. Then I head over to the option chain and see if the premium in the option chain matches up with where I want to be. I do a lot of short strangles but with a sharp drop like this one, I'm only selling the put side to start. May add the call later. I like 1-2 weeks out depending on the underlying and the premium. Chart shows COVID lows were about 255 as an obvious support level. No good structure anywhere else so I went for the 9/30 expiration and grabbed the 260 strike to get a decent premium. I'd prefer to be below the support but opted for the next higher strike as the strikes are 10 points apart on this expiration. I'll adjust to get below that level if I have to defend the position as time goes by. Mid price was .90 at market close, so off to a good start so far.
Here's a trade I made this morning as an example:
At market open: STO ADBE 9/30/22 260P $1.50
I start with a chart and look for support levels that I can be around. Then I head over to the option chain and see if the premium in the option chain matches up with where I want to be. I do a lot of short strangles but with a sharp drop like this one, I'm only selling the put side to start. May add the call later. I like 1-2 weeks out depending on the underlying and the premium. Chart shows COVID lows were about 255 as an obvious support level. No good structure anywhere else so I went for the 9/30 expiration and grabbed the 260 strike to get a decent premium. I'd prefer to be below the support but opted for the next higher strike as the strikes are 10 points apart on this expiration. I'll adjust to get below that level if I have to defend the position as time goes by. Mid price was .90 at market close, so off to a good start so far.
Posted on 9/16/22 at 8:04 pm to slacker00
That’s probably why these threads don’t last. I’ve got way too much going on in life to do write ups of the entire trade. But for the ppl that already regularly trade options it could be nice to see other peoples thoughts.
Posted on 9/16/22 at 8:11 pm to slacker00
As for that ADBE trade the r/r just isn’t there for me. I’m a 3 day rules guy and Thats an enormous amount of risk to collect $150 bucks? If it’s only one contract. I know you can trade around that to minimize risk but that’s just not my style
Posted on 9/17/22 at 8:31 am to thatguy777
I'm not trying to convince anyone to trade naked options. I'm going to leave that alone other than to say we view risk from different perspectives but I find them much easier to adjust than credit spreads. I trade both but usually only use speculative money if I am using credit spreads.
I'm sorry you view 150 bucks per lot as paltry. In the current market conditions, I'm not taking a lot of directional shots but also don't want to sit in cash. I guess 5% ROI in 2 weeks in a high probability trade isn't that good.
I'm sorry you view 150 bucks per lot as paltry. In the current market conditions, I'm not taking a lot of directional shots but also don't want to sit in cash. I guess 5% ROI in 2 weeks in a high probability trade isn't that good.
Posted on 9/17/22 at 12:15 pm to slacker00
I wasn’t trying to shite on your trade. I’m just saying the r/r isn’t worth it to me. If ADBE continues to tank you are going to have to make some serious adjustments. Everyone has their diff styles. Cheers
Posted on 9/17/22 at 6:50 pm to thatguy777
Just responding in general to no particular post but I want to state my observation when I listen to traders speak (and not just here):
I think people rely too much on technical analysis and the risk is not analyzed properly when they enter the trade. Trading option based mostly on technical analysis then just magnifies the miscalculation of the risk.
I would highly recommend you do fundamental analysis and then use technical analysis as support for the fundamental risk calculation. Hey, for example I absolutely look at when a stock was last at X strike. No doubt. But fundamentals seem to be pretty much ignored and that’s dangerous, especially with option trading.
Put some emphasis on fundamentals and I think you will do much better with options trading.
Also, slow and steady wins the game. Hogs get slaughtered. Don’t be greedy. Just win a little more then you lose over the long term and you will be successful. That’s what the big boys do and they enjoy long term success.
I will repeat I do neutral option strategies. Look into that.
I’m done posting or looking at the MT. I feel my thoughts are not wanted here and that’s OK. No skin off my nose. This is my most honest advice I can give after trading options for about 30 years. Agree or not, I have given it and that that. Don’t even respond because I won’t see it. Good luck.
I think people rely too much on technical analysis and the risk is not analyzed properly when they enter the trade. Trading option based mostly on technical analysis then just magnifies the miscalculation of the risk.
I would highly recommend you do fundamental analysis and then use technical analysis as support for the fundamental risk calculation. Hey, for example I absolutely look at when a stock was last at X strike. No doubt. But fundamentals seem to be pretty much ignored and that’s dangerous, especially with option trading.
Put some emphasis on fundamentals and I think you will do much better with options trading.
Also, slow and steady wins the game. Hogs get slaughtered. Don’t be greedy. Just win a little more then you lose over the long term and you will be successful. That’s what the big boys do and they enjoy long term success.
I will repeat I do neutral option strategies. Look into that.
I’m done posting or looking at the MT. I feel my thoughts are not wanted here and that’s OK. No skin off my nose. This is my most honest advice I can give after trading options for about 30 years. Agree or not, I have given it and that that. Don’t even respond because I won’t see it. Good luck.
Posted on 9/17/22 at 10:43 pm to Realityintheface
Your 30 years of options trading is not showing here. I’ve been doing it for a long time. Fundamentals matter a lot for longer dated expirations. I try to use fundamentals technicals and flows on all of my trades. Unfortunately I’m not disciplined enough to adhere to all of that 100% of the time. Market conditions are terrible right now so it’s a quick hit and run environment. Everyone has their different style though. You won’t see this either. Cheers
This post was edited on 9/17/22 at 10:48 pm
Posted on 9/19/22 at 11:42 am to LSUtoOmaha
Got out of APRN and PRTY this morning for manageable losses. Not my style, the underlying just went straight down for these high IV names. Going to focus on tickers I actually know that actually fluctuate with the market.
Posted on 9/19/22 at 3:12 pm to LSUtoOmaha
Added an Apple put credit spread this morning. Getting 12% ROI with the near strike at $138 feels pretty good.
Posted on 9/19/22 at 3:24 pm to LSUtoOmaha
I was doing similar things last year as your APRN trade but I'm having more consistent success right now using shorter dated expirations and not ATM (both for high IV products and more well behaved ones).
eta: just saw your AAPL post. What expiry? I sold a 139p for 9/30 this morning.
Back to my trade example:
I added the Call side (same expiry) to my ADBE trade at 340 strike for an extra 0.70. In total sold 2.20 in premium and both side were green today even with the underlying down 1.1%.
eta: just saw your AAPL post. What expiry? I sold a 139p for 9/30 this morning.
Back to my trade example:
I added the Call side (same expiry) to my ADBE trade at 340 strike for an extra 0.70. In total sold 2.20 in premium and both side were green today even with the underlying down 1.1%.
This post was edited on 9/19/22 at 3:27 pm
Posted on 9/19/22 at 4:22 pm to slacker00
Smart of you to quit the APRN style trade 
I sold the 138/134 spread for 10/21.
Nice on ADBE. Did you place that trade the day after it tanked with Figma, or did you wait a few days?
I sold the 138/134 spread for 10/21.
Nice on ADBE. Did you place that trade the day after it tanked with Figma, or did you wait a few days?
Posted on 9/19/22 at 5:20 pm to LSUtoOmaha
I meant the 30-45+ dte trades. That's a lifetime in the current market. Most everything is 1 or 2 weeks for me. right now. Same for my AAPL. Entered this morning and expires end of the month.
For ADBE I entered puts on Friday at the opening bell and calls this morning. Figma tank was on Thursday.
For ADBE I entered puts on Friday at the opening bell and calls this morning. Figma tank was on Thursday.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 6:50 am to slacker00
Looking at GOOG 106 and KO 60 calls today
Posted on 9/20/22 at 6:56 am to slacker00
Oh I re-read your post. Got it
Posted on 9/20/22 at 8:07 am to slacker00
the strat
I use the strat to daytrade SPY reversals, mainly on the 15, 30, and hour timeframes.
Love the simplicity of the strat. Pure price action no unnecessary complexity that indicators can bring.
Anyone looking to learn a pretty simple method of technical analysis I'd definitely recommend checking out the strat.
I use the strat to daytrade SPY reversals, mainly on the 15, 30, and hour timeframes.
Love the simplicity of the strat. Pure price action no unnecessary complexity that indicators can bring.
Anyone looking to learn a pretty simple method of technical analysis I'd definitely recommend checking out the strat.
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 8:10 am
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:00 pm to slacker00
quote:
I meant the 30-45+ dte trades. That's a lifetime in the current market. Most everything is 1 or 2 weeks for me. right now.
I’m still selling neutral delta strategies at 45 +/- DTE, but with REALLY wide strikes - and I’m staying FAR away from high beta, speculative stocks. The goal there is to capture 50-60% of max profit and close them (if they’re not challenged of course). Like you, I’m also staying closer in with directional plays - even though the gamma risk gets frisky below 10 days.
I meant to save a news piece that spoke about the number of 2 to 3 standard deviation moves we’ve had this year. It’s made (seemingly) high probability plays not so high probability at times. I’ll post a link if I can find it again.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:03 pm to LSUtoOmaha
quote:
Added an Apple put credit spread this morning. Getting 12% ROI with the near strike at $138 feels pretty good.
Haven’t looked at the option pricing, but with the stock price action, I’d say you’re a happy fellow today.
Posted on 9/20/22 at 7:09 pm to thatguy777
quote:
Everyone has their different style though. You won’t see this either. Cheers
Exactly. Remember the underlyings where we had opposite strategies (and different strikes) and we both made money a year or two ago?
I just read through the thread to this point, and I’m not sure what he was upset about. This is one of the better threads on this forum right now, IMO. He was in the Treasury thread and got wound up there too. Maybe a bad day at the office or the dog threw up on the carpet. But best to move on if something on the internet stresses you out.
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