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re: Reality check, Tigers are in for a struggle
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:21 pm to OceanMan
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:21 pm to OceanMan
quote:
so many logic flaws in this post, I don't even know where to begin.
Name one.
quote:
I will just ask, do you have any concept that every football game is different, and using historical points scored as indication of a score projection is a little ridiculous?
Statistics are a tool. I am well aware that statistics "lie"-- mislead is probably a better word. I made no prediction other than that I think this will be a battle on Saturday. The score was simply what the unbiased statistics showed.
quote:
Have you ever analyzed a game in this fashion before? What was the outcome?
Close to this method but not exactly. I did use it to pick bowl games with a spread. It was only once though, but I did have a winning record.
quote:
Do you seriously think that Florida OUTGAINS us by 100 yards?
Wouldn't bet on it, but if things go really bad-- they run all over LSU-- with their defense I think there is some chance of it.
quote:
You saying that you used statistics here is a joke. You looked at stats, and made assumptions, without explaining your assumptions. You should be paying attention to class, rather than writing bull shite on the Tiger Rant.
I saved the Tiger Rant board the in depth statistics stuff and just stuck to the results and the main conclusion from the results.
Trying to be brief:
The idea behind the stats are this: If LSU has a damn good running game, it should have more rushing yards versus a team than all the other opponents that played that team. So if LSU plays Kent St, the rushing yards are compared to what other teams Kent St has played (Penn State, N. Illinois) have done comparatively to LSU rather than simply how many yards LSU had against Kent St. Therefore, some of the skewness in the stats against Kent St. are kept to a minimum.
LSU's points are derived from the average of LSU's season points/yards ratio with Florida's season points-given-up/yards ratio multiplied by the expected yards in the game. (A high points/yard ratio may mean good special teams, good turnover ratio) The opposite for Florida's points.
This has opened my eyes that Florida will probably hold LSU in check and will have success running the ball. I don't like LSU -7, but I never bet against them.
2
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:21 pm to BornKjun
Stats can't say shite....they're just stats....What do you say?
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:22 pm to noladan
Mike Gillislee isn't suiting up on Saturday
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:24 pm to TDTGodfather
I just dont think murphy can make the throws Murray did. Or at least not yet, but Mett can. Murray was still making plays when the coverage was great.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:24 pm to BornKjun
All of your statistics and reasoning is based off of Florida's defensive statistics assuming LSU will have similar success or lack there of as other teams. But you aren't factoring in LSU's offensive numbers.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:26 pm to BornKjun
I completely agree with all of what the op said. I predict a little more scoring but I don't think we match up real well with UF and say they win 30-24.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:26 pm to BornKjun
quote:
I did use it to pick bowl games with a spread. It was only once though, but I did have a winning record.
Bowl games is the key word here. After teams already played 11-13 games. Not 5-6.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:26 pm to tigerinthebayou
quote:
All of your statistics and reasoning is based off of Florida's defensive statistics assuming LSU will have similar success or lack there of as other teams. But you aren't factoring in LSU's offensive numbers.
The statistics have LSU doing better against Florida than anyone else has. This would not be possible if what you said was true.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:27 pm to BornKjun
quote:
So, there you go. The statistics say LSU loses something like 24-17.
Even if the statistics are lying, LSU is in for a struggle.
If every game was determined by statistics, then the game wouldn't be played.
Good thing every game is different and every game plan is different from one game to the next
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:29 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
If every game was determined by statistics, then the game wouldn't be played.
The 2011 MNC would have been a cinch if it were based on stats.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:29 pm to BornKjun
Yeah, if you go back and do this before the UGA game, statistics would have favored our Offense against their defense. that our d would make enough plays to win, but it was their d that did.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:32 pm to BornKjun
quote:
The statistics have LSU doing better against Florida than anyone else has. This would not be possible if what you said was true.
My point is you're assuming that the LSU offense will struggle based on what Florida's defense has done statistically so far. So what I'm saying is if you reversed the statistics and looked at LSU's offensive outputs so far you could devise that there is no way Florida's defense can do to LSU what its done to other teams.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:33 pm to otowntiger
are y'all brothers?
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:34 pm to BornKjun
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:35 pm to BornKjun
Your newbie qb will not face a more hostile environment the rest of his life....Let your stats account for that!
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:37 pm to munchman
How did you think this thread would go?
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:39 pm to Doyle McPoyle
quote:
How did you think this thread would go?
Agree.....think he is a troll anyway.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:39 pm to BornKjun
Here's a question: Should Florida's Defense be our primary concern, or is it their Offense that is the real threat? We've all heard how great the Gator Defensive is playing, but one key factor in Florida's wins has been time of possession. The average difference in time of possession in Florida's games this year has been 15 minutes. Think about that. Florida has, on average, had the ball for an entire quarter more than their opponents. Ball control is Florida's strong point. Their only loss was the result of 5 turnovers. To be successful, we will need to hold on to the ball and control the clock. Our Offense has been great, but a great Offense has to get on the field to make a difference. LSU by 3.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:41 pm to tigerinthebayou
quote:
My point is you're assuming that the LSU offense will struggle based on what Florida's defense has done statistically so far. So what I'm saying is if you reversed the statistics and looked at LSU's offensive outputs so far you could devise that there is no way Florida's defense can do to LSU what its done to other teams.
It does BOTH.
From what others have said, we avg. 490 per game on offense. They give up 217. Averaged together results in 353.
I agree that the statistics look a bit skewed in Florida's favor but that is because their defense has been comparatively more dominant than LSU's offense. For example, LSU's stats against Georgia don't look as good when you see that Tennessee, Clemson, and South Carolina also had big offensive days. No other defenses have stopped Florida opponents to the degree Florida has.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 1:42 pm to dgnx6
quote:
Yeah, if you go back and do this before the UGA game, statistics would have favored our Offense against their defense. that our d would make enough plays to win, but it was their d that did.
To be fair, it was the muffed punt when the score was tied 27-27 that was the difference in the game.
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