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re: Reality check, Tigers are in for a struggle
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:30 am to BornKjun
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:30 am to BornKjun
quote:
#3 Florida will run on LSU and will score points
Florida has rushed for more than 100 yards in every game and has had 200+ yards in 3/5 games. LSU has given up 100 yards rushing in every game but Kent St. and has given up 200+ yards twice (Auburn, Miss State). Further, Florida has scored at least 24 points in every game but the Miami game (16 pts.) where they turned the ball over multiple times in the red zone. LSU has given up at least 13 points (Kent St) in every game and 20+ points in 4/6 games. Very likely Florida scores at least 20 points.
Florida has scored in the 30s twice this year....LSU has too...but the other games have been 40s and 50s for LSU and Florida other games were less than 30....this is going to be an even matched game but Cam Cameron will out coach any of the FLorida coaches
0
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:31 am to MasonTiger
Or hopefully the same thing happens to them as it did to us last year. First time qb playing in dv and turns the ball over. Its very possible.
Lets not forget we just came off a two game road stretch against 2 teams that will be in bowl games and 2 qbs that are rated in the top 10 in passer rating.
Id love to see UF try and out score us.
Lets not forget we just came off a two game road stretch against 2 teams that will be in bowl games and 2 qbs that are rated in the top 10 in passer rating.
Id love to see UF try and out score us.
This post was edited on 10/10/13 at 11:32 am
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:31 am to BornKjun
You really put a lot of work into your post. Why didn't you name the individual opponent and their rank at the time played. And who the other teams played to get their stats. Just saying, you are comparing apples to oranges. Those stats are mighty skewed. 
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:32 am to dgnx6
quote:
Or hopefully the same thing happens to them as it did to us last year. First time qb playing in dv and turns the ball over. Its very possible.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:34 am to MasonTiger
34-20 Tigers
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:35 am to BornKjun
quote:
**FLORIDA AVG. 217 YPG SO THIS IS A LOT OF YARDS FOR THEM**
and we average 490...
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:39 am to BornKjun
I think we will win. I saw Jarvis play in high school twice
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:39 am to TigerBait1127
quote:
and we average 490...
so i think its safe to say we can get some yds. I mean is their d really good enough to hold us more than 200 yds less than we are used to? I find that extremely hard to believe.
Our O will make their D look worse, and our d will prob make their o look better. 31-24, they score late but dont have enough to come all the way back.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:40 am to BornKjun
I knew a guy whose step-sister in-law's little brother out ran Beckham in the 40 in 3rd grade, and he says you have no idea what you are talking about.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:40 am to tigerbait01
quote:
I think we will win. I saw Jarvis play in high school twice
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:40 am to BornKjun
Reality Check: Odell and Jarvis are tied for first in the country for receptions of 10+ yards.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:43 am to BornKjun
quote:
LSU beat Oklahoma 21-14 in the 2003 BCS. Oklahoma was supposed to have an amazing offense. It so happens that Muschamp is also involved in this game.
Decent post, but you're REALLY reaching here.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:44 am to BornKjun
Well, Born, we are going to find out about the UF D and LSU O. The LSU D is dog meat. No other way to put it until they actually start to defend something. It is inept and underpowered, a dangerous combination for LSU.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:46 am to BornKjun
and what was your confidence interval?
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:46 am to BornKjun
Scoring Offense: LSU #9
FLA #92
Scoring Defense: LSU #52
FLA #4
LSU wins.
FLA #92
Scoring Defense: LSU #52
FLA #4
LSU wins.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:47 am to BornKjun
Who has florida played? oh that's right Miami to which they LOST!
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:48 am to BornKjun
quote:
Plus, LSU HAS ALREADY BEEN HELD UNDER 100 YARDS vs. GEORGIA
We rushed for over 100 yards. We just happened to have -26 yards from sacks.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:49 am to BornKjun
Florida gave up 21 to Miami at Miami. LSU is at least 7 points better than Miami, especially if you are playing in Tiger Stadium. LSU's D has given up an average of 24 points to TCU, Auburn, and MSU (ignore the bad O's at Kent and UAB and the Exceptional O at Georgia). Florida's offense is not better than TCU, Auburn’s or MSU's; its just not. You act like we're trotting out the little sisters of the poor to play Defense for us.
This game is about special teams. LSU has made mistakes on special teams this year, but Florida is flat out bad. That’s my problem with your statistical analysis. Does it take into account field position? We're good at pinning teams deep. Maybe Florida rushes for 60 yards on a drive before we stop them on a third down; that could happen three or four times in the game. They're also prone to mistakes on special teams. What if we score on a short field because they muffed a punt and don't need a ton of passing yards/rushing yards to get the job done.
It's going to be a good game. Maybe LSU will lose. But I don't agree that the chance of either team winning are significantly greater than the other's, especially not Florida's.
This game is about special teams. LSU has made mistakes on special teams this year, but Florida is flat out bad. That’s my problem with your statistical analysis. Does it take into account field position? We're good at pinning teams deep. Maybe Florida rushes for 60 yards on a drive before we stop them on a third down; that could happen three or four times in the game. They're also prone to mistakes on special teams. What if we score on a short field because they muffed a punt and don't need a ton of passing yards/rushing yards to get the job done.
It's going to be a good game. Maybe LSU will lose. But I don't agree that the chance of either team winning are significantly greater than the other's, especially not Florida's.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:50 am to Hooligan's Ghost
quote:
Scoring Offense: LSU #9
FLA #92
Scoring Defense: LSU #52
FLA #4
LSU wins.
There you go. If you are going to predict the outcome based on random statistics, it makes sense to go with the simplest solution.
Simplest solution says LSU is the better team. A lot more logical than the "lets ignore Florida's horrible passing game and only focus on Florida's strengths" approach the original poster went with.
Posted on 10/10/13 at 11:53 am to BornKjun
Your are missing one point....the fact that Florida has played terrible offenses and that Murphy has gone up against 2 defenses that are even worse than LSU.
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