re: LSU projected as a "First Four Out" team by Baseball America.

SEC usually gets 9-10 teams in.

Right now Kentucky, UT, Ark, A&M, and MSU are essentially locks.

UGA and SCar probably only need 1 game in their last 6 to get in.

so that’s 7 teams who either have 14 wins or need to go 1/6 to get there.

Missouri and Auburn are done. Just not getting in short of winning the tournament.

Vandy is at 11 wins and has Kentucky and UGA left. I could very easily see them at 13-17 but if they lose both series and get swept I think they’re out.

Florida has 10 wins and has UK and UGA. could easily end up at 12 wins.

Then there is us, Ole Miss and Alabama.

Ole Miss has us and A&M. If they don’t win both series they’re done. So if we beat they need to sweep A&M or they’re done.

Alabama needs 3 wins to have a chance and 4 to really lock themselves in. They have us and Auburn. If we beat them they need to sweep auburn to finish ahead of us, which is possible.

If we win our next 2 series, we’re in a pretty good spot to be 13-17 and finish 8-10 the conference

Likely Outcome:

Vandy finishes 13-17 but could finish as bad as 11-19. I dont see them winning either series on their schedule.

Florida Finishes 12-18. A&M and MSU each win but don’t sweep.

Alabama: 13-17 I think we win and Auburn takes 1

Ole Miss: 11-19 lose both remaining series.

LSU 13-17 I think we’d be 9 in the standings ahead of Alabama.

this weekend is big

quote:

---

But, LSU baseball is not good this year. I trust Jay Johnson to come out swinging next season.

---

He better pick up some huge portal guys bc the lack of development in other areas is concerning

This is what I put in the RPI update thread, but it fits better in this one:

From a series win standpoint here is how we currently stand:
7 wins - Tennessee
6 wins - Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M
5 wins - Mississippi State
4 wins - Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Vandy
3 wins - Florida, LSU, Ole Miss
2 wins -
1 win - Mizzou
0 wins - Auburn

If we get to 5 series wins, that likely puts us tied with Alabama because they play Auburn after us. It would keep us ahead of Ole Miss because if we win that series, they can't win 5. It should put us ahead of Florida because it's unlikely they win both their last two series (they won their first 3 and haven't won one since).

I still think it's not just win totals, but series wins will help us as well. We need to win 2 games in each of the last two series. Going 4-2 is very important, but losing one and sweeping the other helps less than winning both.

Need Kentucky to whoop Floridas arse, and Tennessee to beat Vandys arse

quote:

---

Need Kentucky to whoop Floridas arse, and Tennessee to beat Vandys arse

---

These are among the outcomes we want.

Today we want Xavier to beat Miami OH and Rice to beat Lamar.

quote:

---

Can't expect to be back in the championship game after losing that much talent. You can try your best to reload, but sometimes those prospects don't pan out, or they take a while to develop into stars

---

Very few people expected LSU to be back in the championship game. But there is a LOT of difference between not making it to the championship game and not even making the NCAA Tournament. Particularly in a sport where 64 teams make the NCAA Tournament and only a relatively small number of schools nationwide place as much emphasis and resources on baseball as LSU does.

LSU hasn't officially missed the tournament yet (though their chances of making it right now are hanging by a threat). And regardless if they do or don't make the NCAAT it doesn't discredit the results Johnson achieved in his first two seasons at LSU. Nor does failing to make the tournament mean that is going to become the norm going forward. But missing the tournament would mean Johnson did not perform well this season. I know it is a foreign concept to most here, but it is possible to be reasonably critical in the micro but generally pleased in the macro.

Why do you trust that? He missed the tournament two years in a row at Arizona, and it might have been three if not for COVID.

quote:

---

Vitello, Van Horn and Schlossnagle don't seem to have this problem.

---

Vitello definitely doesn't have this problem. He hasn't made it to a championship series, so he doesn't have the problem of worrying how to get back to one.

Schlossnagle also doesn't have the problem of worrying about how to get back to a championship series. He's also still looking for his first. Hell it took him going to A&M to even make it to Omaha with a roster that wasn't built by Vitello.

And Van Horn made one series with a roster Vitello built for him and hasn't sniffed another one.

It makes sense. UF & Bama are 10-14 and the 9th and 10th SEC teams in and LSU is one game back of them both right now tied for 11th in the standings. Pass either UF or Bama and that will get them in.