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LSU is at No.34 in RPI, there are 33 at-large spots in NCAA Tourney...

Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:10 am
Posted by KeyserSoze007
Member since Nov 2023
18 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:10 am
...you do the math.

If No.34 LSU wins 2 out of 3 against No.24 Ole Miss, LSU will have an RPI higher than No.33 next Monday.

31 conference champions automatically qualify for the NCAA Tourney.

If 5 conference champions have an RPI inside the top 33, the RPI "Mendoza line" for an invite jumps to No.38.

If LSU wins 2 out of 3 against Ole Miss and the season ended next Sunday, LSU would be in based on RPI projections.

The only thing that could drop LSU out of the NCAA Tourney would be how conference tournaments shake out and the movement of teams around LSU in RPI.

Based on RPI, LSU does not need to sweep Ole Miss to get in, they just need to win 2 out of 3.

*** Edit ***

13 conferences currently have at least 1 team with an RPI of 33 of higher.

SEC (11) - 1 Kentucky, 2 Texas A&M, 3 Georgia, 4 Arkansas, 6 Tennessee, 11 Alabama, 16 Miss State, 19 S. Carolina, 24 Ole Miss, 28 Vandy, 29 Florida
ACC (7) - 5 UNC, 7 Clemson, 8 Florida State, 9 Wake Forest, 13 Virginia, 20 NC State, 22 Duke
Big 12 (2) - 15 Oklahoma, 17 Oklahoma State
Big West (2) - 18 UC Santa Barbara, 23 UC Irvine
Pac 12 (2) - 14 Oregon State, 26 Arizona
Conference USA (2) - 21 DBU, 32 LaTech
Missouri Valley (1) - 10 Indiana State
American Athletic (1) - 12 East Carolina
West Coast (1) - 25 San Diego
Big East (1) - 27 Xavier
Big Ten (1) - 30 Nebraska
Coastal Athletic (1) - 31 Northwestern
Sunbelt (1) - 33 Southern Miss

There will be upsets, many upsets in conference tournaments. However, it would not be a stretch to say that anywhere from 5-7 of the 31 conference champions will have an RPI of 33 or higher.

If it is 5, then that would mean that teams with an RPI of 38 or higher have a better shot of being selected as an at-large team than teams with an RPI of 39 or lower.

If it is 7, then teams with an RPI of 40 or higher have a better chance than teams with an RPI of 41 or lower.

LSU is currently sitting at No.34, while Ole Miss is at No.24. Hypothetically, if LSU wins 2 out of 3, their RPI could climb up to around No.28 or 29.

This is the strongest year in history for the SEC. It is possible to see 12 teams getting in. I don't buy into the theory that a team from the SEC with an RPI around 28 would be excluded with a conference record of 12-18.

Based on history, at a minimum, you would need to have a record of 13-17, but this year is unprecedented. In 2024, 12-18 with an RPI of 28 may be enough to get in.

If just 5 conference champions have an RPI of 33 or higher than that means that teams with an RPI of 38 or higher have a shot to be selected as an at-large team.

If we can crack the Top 30 with a series win over Ole Miss, then the door is open. Win a couple in Hoover and our RPI could rise to around No.25. If this happens, it will be very hard for the Committee to keep last year's National Champs out.

Geaux Tigers!
This post was edited on 5/14/24 at 1:21 am
Posted by BilbeauTBaggins
probably stuck in traffic
Member since May 2021
4574 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:11 am to
there are three games that can easily be lost this week
This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 9:12 am
Posted by ChineseBandit58
Pearland, TX
Member since Aug 2005
42753 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:12 am to
wow - so you are saying there is a chance??
Posted by MrWalkingMan
31st Parallel North
Member since Aug 2010
6412 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:19 am to
Posted by BigBinBR
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2023
4309 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:19 am to
The regional selection isn’t just based on RPI. We aren’t getting in with 12 wins without winning the SEC tournament.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
65043 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:24 am to
Things that would help LSU

1. Florida losing 2/3 to UGA. They would finish 12-18 and with a losing overall record. If they went 0-1 in the SECT, they would be ineligible for the NCAAT with a losing record.

UGA is arguably the hottest team in the country now, and it wouldn't shock me at all if Florida gets swept.

2. Vandy gets swept by Kentucky, finishing 12-18 in the SEC

3. South Carolina getting swept by Tennessee, finishing 13-17

4. Auburn winning 2/3 against Alabama. Long shot, but Auburn is at home and have noithing to play for except spoiling their rivals season. Alabama would finish 13-17 in that scenario.

All of the above would leave 5 SEC bubble teams with 12 and 13 wins. There are only 6 teams not in that group that are locks for the NCAAT right now.
This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 9:36 am
Posted by LSBoosie
Member since Jun 2020
8007 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:30 am to
Do you think that RPI is the only thing that determines whether or not a team gets into the tournament?
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
66816 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:32 am to
quote:

3. South Carolina getting swept by Tennessee, finishing 12-18


they already have 13 wins

there are 7 SEC teams with 13+ wins

There are 2 with 12 (Bama Vandy)

There are 2 with 8 or less and there are 3 with 10-11

So BEST case scenario

Vandy gets swept finished 12-15
Florida Gets Swept Finished 12-15
Ole Miss gets swept finished 11-19


That would put us at 9th in the SEC. If SCar gets swept we have the same conference record and idk how that shakes out, but we would absolutely be the hotter team.
Posted by Crow Pie
Neuro ICU - Tulane Med Center
Member since Feb 2010
25368 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:32 am to
Hypothetical Question # 1

If a High School team on the bubble cannot execute a catcher to first base throw to win a must-win game...do they need to be in a post-season tournament?
Posted by 33inNC
Charlotte, NC
Member since Mar 2011
4991 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:38 am to
At this point, does it matter? This team has no business going to the post season, they made their beds, now they need to go lay in them.
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
65043 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:41 am to
quote:

At this point, does it matter? This team has no business going to the post season, they made their beds, now they need to go lay in them.

Yes it matters. In 2021, LSU finished 13-17 in the SEC and went 0-1 in the SECT. They ended up 2 wins away from Omaha after being one of the last 4 teams in the tournament.

Ole Miss was one of the last 4 in in 2022 and ended up winning the national title.

No one is making you watch if you're checked out, but yes it matters to the team
This post was edited on 5/13/24 at 9:41 am
Posted by CBP3110
Member since Aug 2012
6599 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:47 am to
Yes they don’t need 13 wins, but the percentage is super low having 12 conference wins. LSUs saving grace is the SEC is loaded this year compared to everyone else. So they might get lucky if they only win 2/3 from Ole Miss. They would probably have to win at least two in the tournament and hope no bid stealers win conference tournaments.
Posted by CBP3110
Member since Aug 2012
6599 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:48 am to
Wrong, would have like 12% by winning 12 games.
Posted by ccox11
Member since Sep 2014
900 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:49 am to
RPI isn't the only metric used bud. Does LSU deserve to be in based on overall body of work? Absolutely. Unfortunately, conference record plays a big part in the selection. The top 12 in the SEC all deserve to be in based on overall body of work. They won't all 12 get in...
Posted by mdomingue
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2010
30604 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:49 am to
quote:

If a High School team on the bubble cannot execute a catcher to first base throw to win a must-win game...do they need to be in a post-season tournament?


Wouldn't that depend on the rest of the field? THere are 64 teams and I guarantee LSU will be better than at least 1/3 of them and probably better than half.

Do you think LSU is not on of the top 64 teams in D1 baseball?
Posted by BigBinBR
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2023
4309 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:49 am to
quote:

So BEST case scenario
Vandy gets swept finished 12-15
Florida Gets Swept Finished 12-15
Ole Miss gets swept finished 11-19
That would put us at 9th in the SEC


We only need 1 of those to happen. If Ole Miss gets swept then that means we swept them. We would be at 13 and should be in
Posted by mdomingue
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2010
30604 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:53 am to
quote:

This team has no business going to the post season,


Do you think LSU is not one of the top 64 teams in D1 baseball? If you think they are, then deserve to be in the tournament. If you don't think so then no one should trust anything you say about college baseball.
Posted by MT555
BR
Member since Feb 2009
1647 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:54 am to
False, you have to win all 3. 2 out of 3 will not cut it.
Posted by MT555
BR
Member since Feb 2009
1647 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 9:56 am to
Well said.
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
56665 posts
Posted on 5/13/24 at 10:05 am to
quote:

The only thing that could drop LSU out of the NCAA Tourney would be how conference tournaments shake out and the movement of teams around LSU in RPI.


This is blind optimism.
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