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13 wins = 38%
Posted on 5/7/24 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 5/7/24 at 12:59 pm
Clearly not a guarantee but I guess we think if we get to that number, they have to let us in. Let’s get to 14 and leave no doubt.
10
Posted on 5/7/24 at 1:08 pm to Flannmann
I don’t mean to sound negative, but I would be thrilled if we got to 13 SEC wins.
Tough to win on the road against a ranked team.
I would feel great about postseason chances if LSU finishes with at least 13. That likely would mean 5 straight SEC series wins to finish the schedule? Pretty hard to deny a defending champ getting that hot.
Tough to win on the road against a ranked team.
I would feel great about postseason chances if LSU finishes with at least 13. That likely would mean 5 straight SEC series wins to finish the schedule? Pretty hard to deny a defending champ getting that hot.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 1:09 pm to Flannmann
I am with you though. Let’s see 14 wins please!
Posted on 5/7/24 at 1:09 pm to beauchristopher
quote:
I don’t mean to sound negative, but I would be thrilled if we got to 13 SEC wins.
I think our odds are 3-1 against getting to 13.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 1:09 pm to Flannmann
13/30 = 43%
Posted on 5/7/24 at 1:16 pm to zadams_318
SEC teams that have won 13 conference games have made it to the tourney 38% of the time …. To clarify
Posted on 5/7/24 at 1:19 pm to Flannmann
RPI means more than SEC win %
If LSU wins the next two series with at least 2 wins in each, they’re in.
If LSU wins the next two series with at least 2 wins in each, they’re in.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 1:21 pm to beauchristopher
If we finish with 13 it would mean 5 straight SEC series wins with 2 on the road vs top 15 RPI teams.
First half: 3-12
Second half: 10-5
I can’t see them leaving us out unless at large bids are eaten up by the ranked mid majors not winning their auto bids.
Also, our second half resume is closer to national seed than missing the tournament, lol
First half: 3-12
Second half: 10-5
I can’t see them leaving us out unless at large bids are eaten up by the ranked mid majors not winning their auto bids.
Also, our second half resume is closer to national seed than missing the tournament, lol
This post was edited on 5/7/24 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 5/7/24 at 1:40 pm to NFLSU
quote:
RPI means more than SEC win %
Except when it isn’t like in 2011. LSU had an RPI of 23. Didn’t make it.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 2:06 pm to Tammany Tom
quote:
Except when it isn’t like in 2011. LSU had an RPI of 23. Didn’t make it.
Except LSU only won 4 out of 10 series in 2011 and only one of those 4 opponents made the NCAAT.
Quite different than if LSU is able to win 5-straight SEC series, including series wins over the #1 team and two Top 25 RPIs in Alabama and Ole Miss.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 2:13 pm to Flannmann
I don’t think going all the way back to 1999 gives us an accurate perspective on how the committee has treated SEC teams in the last 5-10 years when the conference has become more competitive across the board.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 2:17 pm to Flannmann
LSU has been left out in the past with 13 wins.
14 wins is likely in and 13 wins is likely out.
14 wins is likely in and 13 wins is likely out.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 2:24 pm to Jack Daniel
quote:
LSU has been left out in the past with 13 wins. 14 wins is likely in and 13 wins is likely out.
But not in the last 5-10 years. 13 got them in in 2021.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 2:39 pm to Flannmann
Pm's last year was 13-17. Got in and won a regional. 13 wins is noted and will get in with a decent rpi. Book it.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 2:58 pm to Jack Daniel
You likely have no clue like the rest
Posted on 5/7/24 at 3:04 pm to MaxXL
quote:
Pm's last year was 13-17. Got in and won a regional. 13 wins is noted and will get in with a decent rpi. Book it
That was a little bit of an odd year in that games across the nation were still being routinely cancelled because of "safety concerns".
That means the committee probably leaned on other metrics (such as RPI, SOS) more than they might have in other years. That said, LSU was NOT one of the "last four in". Their RPI was in the top 35. More noteworthy, LSU's SOS was in the top 5
If LSU can take 2/3 in their final 2 series they will almost assuredly have a top 35 RPI. Unfortunately, their SOS right now is 22. It will get better playing Alabama and Ole Miss. But not near top 5. (Probably top 15, at best). Still, those numbers would give LSU a very strong argument to get in. Even stronger if Ole Miss and Florida end up with losing records overall...which is a very real possibility given Ole Miss (currently 25-22) finishes with A&M (3x), @ Southern Miss, @ LSU (3x), and Florida (currently 24-23 finishes with South Florida, Kentucky (3x), @ Georgia (3x)
There is no requirement that a mandatory number of SEC teams reach the NCAA Tournament. So just because Ole Miss and Florida may essentially play themselves out doesn't mean LSU automatically gets in as the 9th team. But the committee is going to give deference to the SEC because it is the strongest conference.
Posted on 5/7/24 at 3:07 pm to MaxXL
quote:
Pm's last year was 13-17. Got in and won a regional. 13 wins is noted and will get in with a decent rpi. Book it.
I have often wondered if that was a lifetime appreciation award for Paul
Posted on 5/7/24 at 3:11 pm to beauchristopher
quote:
That likely would mean 5 straight SEC series wins to finish the schedule. Pretty hard to deny a defending champ getting that hot.
This, the committee would see it as we are getting hot at the right time. Which we might be. That series win over A&M was no slouch
Posted on 5/7/24 at 3:46 pm to Flannmann
so in the past 4 tournaments
4 teams with 14-16 record have made it in. 0 have been left out
3 teams with 13-17 records have made it in and one 12-17 team.
3 teams with 13-17 records have been left out. 1 team with a 13-16-1 record was left out.
of note: every team left out has been in the east.
2022 S Car went 0-1 in the SECT and was 27-28 overall.
2021 UGA 13-17 31-25 overall went 1-3 in the SECT. a bit of a snub to be honest. 3-7 series record. I dont know why Bama got in and UGA did not.
2019 Missouri 13-16-1. this one was a big snub. they finished ahead of UF in the EC standings but got swept by UF last series of the season. went 0-1 in the tournament. 34-22-1 overall record. Had some descent series wins too. Probably came down to the sweet and nothing else.
2018 Kentucky was 13-17 went 3-1 in the tournament and had a 34-22 record.
A&M made it in at 13-7
went 3-1 in the SECT and were 39-20 overall.
You have to go back to 2017 to find a SEC team with 36 wins miss the tournament.
We have 31 now. if we beat NWSU and take the next 2 series we’re in good shape.
4 teams with 14-16 record have made it in. 0 have been left out
3 teams with 13-17 records have made it in and one 12-17 team.
3 teams with 13-17 records have been left out. 1 team with a 13-16-1 record was left out.
of note: every team left out has been in the east.
2022 S Car went 0-1 in the SECT and was 27-28 overall.
2021 UGA 13-17 31-25 overall went 1-3 in the SECT. a bit of a snub to be honest. 3-7 series record. I dont know why Bama got in and UGA did not.
2019 Missouri 13-16-1. this one was a big snub. they finished ahead of UF in the EC standings but got swept by UF last series of the season. went 0-1 in the tournament. 34-22-1 overall record. Had some descent series wins too. Probably came down to the sweet and nothing else.
2018 Kentucky was 13-17 went 3-1 in the tournament and had a 34-22 record.
A&M made it in at 13-7
went 3-1 in the SECT and were 39-20 overall.
You have to go back to 2017 to find a SEC team with 36 wins miss the tournament.
We have 31 now. if we beat NWSU and take the next 2 series we’re in good shape.
This post was edited on 5/7/24 at 3:51 pm
Posted on 5/7/24 at 4:06 pm to Flannmann
quote:
SEC teams that have won 13 conference games have made it to the tourney 38% of the time …. To clarify
How many of the other 62% had LSU's SOS? Keeping in mind that LSU is about to play a series against #14 and #25 RPI and increase that SoS even more.
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