re: Filing a credit card dispute - what's the likelihood of full approval?

Did you sign an agreement? What does it say?

If you agreed to rent a property for certain days and the owner/manager is still making that property available on those days, then why would you expect them to let you out of your agreement because you changed your mind after the agreement was made? If you wanted to be able to change your mind based on weather or other factors then that would be in the agreement and probably factored in by the other party in the terms/price.

Or you could have purchased insurance from a third party to cover your change of plans.