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D1Baseball Nerdcast: 5/20/24 - Projecting Field of 64 Update: LSU in (link posted)
Posted on 5/20/24 at 11:39 am
Posted on 5/20/24 at 11:39 am
Posted on 5/20/24 at 11:43 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
We have the best record of anybody at 13-17 vs quad 1-2 at 18-18
This post was edited on 5/20/24 at 11:44 am
Posted on 5/20/24 at 11:44 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Yeah they seemed pretty confident that
Bama, Florida and lsu are in based on the 5 sec teams on the bubble
Bama, Florida and lsu are in based on the 5 sec teams on the bubble
This post was edited on 5/20/24 at 11:48 am
Posted on 5/20/24 at 11:45 am to L S Usetheforce
They agree there’s no doubt LSU is one of the best at large teams right now. I think we’re going to be in even with a loss to UGA. May be the last team in though.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 11:48 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
you also have to keep in mind with head to head, some of these 13-17 teams will get that extra win
it would be in lsu's best interest to win against UGA and if not LSU has no argument if left out
it would be in lsu's best interest to win against UGA and if not LSU has no argument if left out
Posted on 5/20/24 at 11:51 am to nicholastiger
I think Vandy is out
Posted on 5/20/24 at 11:52 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
They put 11 SEC schools in. Didn’t really say who would be the last of that bunch in
They have all 5 13-17 teams in as a 3 seed. That’s what I was saying yesterday. If any of those would be a 2 seed it would be Bama because of their RPI at #18
They have all 5 13-17 teams in as a 3 seed. That’s what I was saying yesterday. If any of those would be a 2 seed it would be Bama because of their RPI at #18
This post was edited on 5/20/24 at 11:54 am
Posted on 5/20/24 at 11:56 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Mark Etheridge said he would cut many teams before the 5 SEC schools. Kendall also said that the committee is heavily going to weigh the KPI (or they’re supposed to) and all of these SEC schools in the KPI are within the top 22 and basically said that if the committee is going to say it’s a new metric they weigh heavily, they have to put all 5 in
Posted on 5/20/24 at 11:57 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Tigers are in baby.
VS #2 Arizona @ NC State
Sign me up for that.
VS #2 Arizona @ NC State
Sign me up for that.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 11:58 am to CWILKS3
Yeah they don't even have lsu as the last 4 in. Lsu is in over vandy and south Carolina at this point
Posted on 5/20/24 at 11:58 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
If this is the projection they roll with today they have us in #11 NCSUs regional with Arizona as the 2 seed and Little Rock as the 4 seed
Posted on 5/20/24 at 11:59 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Glad to see they are pretty on par with what me and Mike said in my pinned post. I feel like we would not even be the next 3-4 before the last four in bases on their projections. They have Kansas St, TCU, Georgia Tech, and UCF all in as well which I agree but metrics wise all those teams are behind us. The only argument against us compared to those teams would be they want to limit the SEC amount of teams.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 12:01 pm to Traceg03
In these scenarios, if both number 1 seeds lose, how do they select who hosts the super?
Posted on 5/20/24 at 12:01 pm to Traceg03
IMO, either 11 SEC teams (new record) or Vandy is left out.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 12:03 pm to TIGERSby10
It’s good they have USCe and Vandy in behind us. That gives us a little leeway tomorrow if both those teams lose since they wouldn’t jump us whether LSU wins or loses
Posted on 5/20/24 at 12:11 pm to L S Usetheforce
They have us in Okie State’s regional instead of NCSUs FYI
Posted on 5/20/24 at 12:12 pm to Traceg03
quote:
Glad to see they are pretty on par with what me and Mike said in my pinned post.
Yes, between us we had 20 teams on the bubble for 13 spots. No one in their field disagrees with our list and the first 4 out were on our list. St John’s and Arizona St were the ones we differed on and neither is on D1’s list. The only other team we had on the bubble not on their list is Indiana.
I absolutely agree with you that LSU is at least a few teams clear of last 4 in range. The 4 teams you mentioned don’t have winning conference records and worse overall metrics. I firmly believe Florida is behind LSU as well. I really believe it would take a lot of chaos for LSU to be out.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 12:18 pm to L S Usetheforce
quote:
I think Vandy is out
I think it is Florida.
The #1 SOS is great and all, but you have to actually win games. 28-26 is not a NCAA Tournament team.
They lost to FSU 3 times. They lost to Setson. It took a surprising 2/3 performance this past week just to have are record about .500.
If the selection committee puts them in they are saying "Actually winning the games is not that important as long as schedule tough." To that end, Florida has a bigger advantage in the scheduling department because their are several solid programs within the state of Florida. That is a HUGE advantage when putting together a non-conf. schedule in college baseball. Unlike in basketball where it is much easier for teams to play non-conf. games against other teams all over the country, it's much more difficult to do in baseball for a few reasons:
1. By and large, baseball is not a profit generating sport. That means the budgets are lower, which means there aren't the funds there to fly teams all over the country every week to play one maybe two midweek games against other good teams. Thus, most schools are left to play mid-week games against other schools within a relatively close geographic region (for travel and cost purposes). If you don't have many good programs close to you it is difficult to put together a great non-conf. schedule.
2. Baseball teams play 50+ regular season games. Almost twice as much as basketball teams and almost 5x as much as football teams. If baseball team flew around the country weekly to play a great non-conf. schedule the players would never go to school. You'd fly somewhere on a Monday. Play on Tuesday. Go to class on Wednesday. And (in some instances) fly out again on Thursday to play Friday-Sun. Again, that makes you beholden to your geography.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 12:32 pm to Alt26
Not that it would make a huge difference, but I think we could be a little more strategic in the first few series of the year outside of that tournament weekend. Playing teams like VMI, Stoney Brook, Xavier, etc isn’t really helping you. In basketball, some coaches are good at manipulating RPI by scheduling beatable teams that will compete for their conference championship and a tournament bid.
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