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re: Is Georgia a must win or are we in a regional regardless of outcome?
Posted on 5/20/24 at 8:15 am to Pelican fan99
Posted on 5/20/24 at 8:15 am to Pelican fan99
We made this bed. Stop crying
0
Posted on 5/20/24 at 8:25 am to HvacGoon
Nobody near/on the bubble is "locked in" because theres tons of variables at play with this last week of play from said teams.
There could be more "stolen" spots from mid-major (or major conference) teams than expected (or less).
We have no idea how the other bubble teams will perform this week, if mostly hotter than typical then we probably need to do something in the SECT.
Primarily I think we're competing heavily with the 4 other 13-17 SEC teams in the committees eyes. They arent taking 11 SEC teams, so of those 5 13-17 SEC teams, at least 1 will probably be left out, good chance 2 are left out. We need to be 1 of those 3 or 4 not left out. So naturally winning a SECT game or two probably "locks" us in.
There could be more "stolen" spots from mid-major (or major conference) teams than expected (or less).
We have no idea how the other bubble teams will perform this week, if mostly hotter than typical then we probably need to do something in the SECT.
Primarily I think we're competing heavily with the 4 other 13-17 SEC teams in the committees eyes. They arent taking 11 SEC teams, so of those 5 13-17 SEC teams, at least 1 will probably be left out, good chance 2 are left out. We need to be 1 of those 3 or 4 not left out. So naturally winning a SECT game or two probably "locks" us in.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 8:32 am to HvacGoon
Right now historically we have a 38% chance of making it.
If we win one more game it goes up to 74%
A win is enormous
If we win one more game it goes up to 74%
A win is enormous
Posted on 5/20/24 at 8:37 am to Solo Cam
quote:
Right now historically we have a 38% chance of making it.
If we win one more game it goes up to 74%
That's not true. Those statistics are for regular season wins.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 8:41 am to HvacGoon
Must Win
This isn’t the time to fool around
WIN
This isn’t the time to fool around
WIN
Posted on 5/20/24 at 8:42 am to HvacGoon
Nobody knows for sure.
I think realistically if we lose you can’t argue with being left out. Jay Johnson will speak out and get everyone’s hopes up. But, I think we will be disappointed more likely than not.
I think realistically if we lose you can’t argue with being left out. Jay Johnson will speak out and get everyone’s hopes up. But, I think we will be disappointed more likely than not.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 8:46 am to HvacGoon
Looking like it’s a must win, don’t think they will put 11 SEC teams in the regionals
Posted on 5/20/24 at 8:49 am to HvacGoon
It's absolutely a must-win. You need to differentiate yourself from the other 13-17 teams in the league because a blind resume puts LSU at the end of that pecking order.
If LSU manages to secure a win on Tuesday, it will not only boost its own performance but also surpass two other 13-17 teams in terms of conference game wins. This is because Bama is set to face South Carolina and Florida is up against Vandy.
UGA is a bad matchup for LSU in a one-game scenario. They are much better offensively than LSU, but their weakness is that their pitching depth is non-existent, which won't show up in a one-game scenario.
If LSU manages to secure a win on Tuesday, it will not only boost its own performance but also surpass two other 13-17 teams in terms of conference game wins. This is because Bama is set to face South Carolina and Florida is up against Vandy.
UGA is a bad matchup for LSU in a one-game scenario. They are much better offensively than LSU, but their weakness is that their pitching depth is non-existent, which won't show up in a one-game scenario.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 8:50 am to HvacGoon
Tomorrow's game has very little relevance. If any.
If LSU is "in", they are in right now. The outcome of tomorrow's game won't really change that. We saw a very similar scenario with a similar opponent in 2021. LSU and UGA played what EVERYONE thought was a "elimination" game to open the SEC Tournament. LSU lost. The Rant panicked. It turned out that not only was LSU in the tournament. They weren't even one of the "last four in".
You see it in the basketball selections. The committee has 56 games of data to look at to determine whether a team should be in the tournament or not. They aren't going to put undue influence on one or two games at the very end of the season (unless a team actually wins their conf. tournament). That has been shown time and time again. Whether with selections or seeding implications.
Personally, I think it is a little dumb that the committee doesn't really put much emphasis on the conf. tournaments given they are conference games at a neutral site. But that has been the trend.
IMO, LSU did just enough in the last 3 weeks and there was enough carnage around them with other "bubble" teams to get LSU in.
If LSU is "in", they are in right now. The outcome of tomorrow's game won't really change that. We saw a very similar scenario with a similar opponent in 2021. LSU and UGA played what EVERYONE thought was a "elimination" game to open the SEC Tournament. LSU lost. The Rant panicked. It turned out that not only was LSU in the tournament. They weren't even one of the "last four in".
You see it in the basketball selections. The committee has 56 games of data to look at to determine whether a team should be in the tournament or not. They aren't going to put undue influence on one or two games at the very end of the season (unless a team actually wins their conf. tournament). That has been shown time and time again. Whether with selections or seeding implications.
Personally, I think it is a little dumb that the committee doesn't really put much emphasis on the conf. tournaments given they are conference games at a neutral site. But that has been the trend.
IMO, LSU did just enough in the last 3 weeks and there was enough carnage around them with other "bubble" teams to get LSU in.
This post was edited on 5/20/24 at 8:52 am
Posted on 5/20/24 at 8:57 am to Jake88
quote:
The committee loves to screw over LSU when they have the chance to. No way we should assume we are in and should treat the Georgia game as such
Only time I can remember LSU getting screwed over by the committee was Smoke Laval’s last year. Larry Templeton, the AD at State was on the committee. The committee chose State over LSU.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 8:59 am to GA Tiger
Can we get in without beating Georgia? Sure. But it's a must win if we want to remove any doubt about getting in.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 8:59 am to HvacGoon
Every game is a must win from here on out. It’s the post season.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 9:09 am to skullhawk
A “must-win” to me means that if we lose then the season is over. I disagree with this, considering that 2 other 13-17 SEC bubble teams will also lose.
Playing Georgia (RPI #6) would likely boost our RPI even with a loss. Heck, USCe RPI jumped from 23 to 19 by being swept by Tennessee.
Our RPI is what’s dragging us down compared to the other SEC bubble teams. If beat Georgia then I would consider us a lock because we would then play Kentucky (RPI #3). Our RPI would likely climb even with a loss against them.
Playing Georgia (RPI #6) would likely boost our RPI even with a loss. Heck, USCe RPI jumped from 23 to 19 by being swept by Tennessee.
Our RPI is what’s dragging us down compared to the other SEC bubble teams. If beat Georgia then I would consider us a lock because we would then play Kentucky (RPI #3). Our RPI would likely climb even with a loss against them.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 9:11 am to Solo Cam
quote:
Right now historically we have a 38% chance of making it.
100% of SEC teams with 13 conference wins and 36 total wins have made it since 2017. That’s more relevant than a stat going back to 1999. The landscape has changed and the SEC is far more competitive. Many of those 13 win SEC teams were pretty bad back in the day.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 9:18 am to HvacGoon
Does Omaha get a vote? If so, LSU is IN!
Posted on 5/20/24 at 9:28 am to HvacGoon
I say it’s a must win.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 9:35 am to DeafJam73
quote:If not for the fact that they may not have a Regional locked up yet, then not really.
Every game is a must win from here on out.
Posted on 5/20/24 at 9:36 am to HvacGoon
A UGA loss is going to be an issue
Posted on 5/20/24 at 9:50 am to skullhawk
quote:
It's absolutely a must-win. You need to differentiate yourself from the other 13-17 teams in the league because a blind resume puts LSU at the end of that pecking order
A blind resume if you only look at Q1 record and RPI ranking. If you dig a little deeper that’s not at all true. The Q1 designation is completely arbitrary and excludes LSU going 4-0 against La Tech and Ole Miss who otherwise would be Q1. It excludes Florida getting swept by Missouri. Now suddenly LSU is 11-13 and Florida 13-20. Florida is rewarded by RPI for playing harder teams and losing. Florida did play one more tough SEC series, but LSU went 5-1 non-conference against RPI Top 40 teams with only 2 other losses, while Florida went 0-2 with 7 other losses, including 3 in weekend games. LSU is 18-18 vs Q1/2 vs 15-23 for Florida. LSU has a better resume and I fully expect the committee to hold Florida’s 28-26 record against them.
If you look at SC and Vanderbilt, the conclusions are similar. They played tougher conference schedules (Vandy only slightly), but LSU had better non-conference results. SC went 0-2 against Clemson with no quality wins. Vandy beat ULL and Texas like LSU, but can’t match LSU’s series win over Xavier. Honestly, there’s very little to separate those 3. I don’t see the committee excluding any of them just to arbitrarily cap the number of SEC schools.
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