Conference Tournament Week - (Bid Stealer Tracker)

I think I read last night that Maryland didn't even qualify for the Big 10 Tournament. So they probably have no chance.

Also, thanks for putting this thread together.

Looks like you and I have been doing a lot of similar research lately. I was working on a post like this one myself. I agree with your posted locks so far completed through the Big 10 at the time of my reply. I think Maryland at 10-14 on the Big 10 is out and I would add St John’s (RPI #63, 34-16-1, 14-7 Big East) to the bubble.

I don’t want to steal your thunder, but it doesn’t make sense for me to start another post doing the same thing, so here is the rest of my list, by conference strength rather than alphabetically.

SEC:
Locks (7): Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Miss St, Alabama

Bubble (4):
South Carolina 33-21 (13-17) RPI: #19
Vanderbilt 35-20 (13-17) RPI: #27
LSU: 36-20 (13-17) RPI: #30
Florida 28-26 (13-17) RPI: #24

ACC:
Locks (7): UNC, Clemson, FSU, NC St, Virginia, Wake Forest, Duke

Bubble (2):
Louisville: 32-22 (16-14) RPI: #52
Georgia Tech: 31-21 (15-15) RPI: #46

Big 12:
Locks (4): Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, W. Virginia

Bubble (4):
Cincinnati: 31-23 (17-13) RPI: #55
Kansas St: 31-22 (15-15) RPI: #41
UCF: 33-18 (14-15) RPI: #42
TCU: 31-19 (14-16) RPI: #39

PAC-12:
Locks (3): Oregon St, Arizona, Oregon

Bubble (1):
Cal: 34-18 (17-13) RPI: #65

Out:
Utah was in D1Baseball’s last projection, but they were swept by USC to fall to 32-21 (16-14) RPI: #80. Their conference record just isn’t strong enough to overcome their RPI.

Sun Belt:
Locks (2): ULL, USM

Bubble (3):
Troy: 36-20 (18-12) RPI: #53
James Madison: 32-21 (17-13) RPI: #44
Coastal Carolina: 33-21 (16-14) RPI: #35

Big 10:
Locks (2): Nebraska, Illinois

Bubble (1);
Indiana: 30-22-1 (15-9) RPI: #60

CUSA:
Locks (2): DBU, La Tech

Bubble (0);
None

Big West:
Locks (2): UCSB, UC-Irvine

Bubble (0);
None

CAA:
Locks (1): Northeastern

Bubble (2):
Charleston: 39-12 (21-5) RPI: #50
UNCW: 36-19 (20-7) RPI: #47

Big East:
Locks (1): UConn

Bubble (2);
St John’s: 34-16-1 (14-7) RPI: #63
Xavier: 29-25 (12-9) RPI: #38

Other Locks:
East Carolina (AAC)
Indiana St (MVC)
San Diego (WCC)

One-Bid Leagues: 17

Total:
Locks: 34
1-Bid Auto: 17
Bubble: 19 (13 spots minus bid thieves)


ETA: Originally I did not include the AAC, ACC, Big East, Big 10 and Big 12 since trace had already posted those conferences. Now that his list is complete, I decided to add those leagues in above.

Great work, and yes you can edit that first post as needed.

Great work Mike, I will add St. John when I get back to my computer. Yours is a way easier version to read. We are in agreement in a lot of things. What do you think about Arizona St for the pac 12? RPI too high to make a comeback let’s say they make it to the pac 12 championship but lose?

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Where do you have 19 bubble teams listed? Looks like you have 10 listed. Don’t see any from ACC.

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Sorry, I was trying not to duplicate the conferences he had already listed at the time I started my reply. (His original post was only through the Big 10.) My bubble list includes the 2 he has for the ACC (Louisville, Ga Tech), 4 B12 (TCU, KSU, UCF, Cincinnati), 1 Big 10 (Indiana), and 2 Big East (Xavier, St. John’s). I guess I should add in those leagues to my post now that his is complete.

That would be awesome.

Looking at bubbles teams currently, I think there are at least 6 schools that wouldn’t get in over any of the SEC bubble teams

Bubble teams all SEC teams should be in over: Xavier, St. John’s, Cal, Indiana, at least 1 ACC, at least 1 Big 12 and 1 or 2 of those sunbelt schools.

If there are more than 2-3 bid stealers our chances get worse.

The new field projections should help us gauge who is in better spots than others. While it’s not the Bible it’s a good guide. I assume we will be among last 4 in.

The D1 nerdcast podcast has a great breakdown of the projected field and why they selected who they selected. It's last week's information, but they'll update this week.

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Traceg03

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Thank you for the hard work