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Message
Conference Tournament Week - (Bid Stealer Tracker)
Posted on 5/19/24 at 1:43 pm
Posted on 5/19/24 at 1:43 pm
I will post this as a thread to talk about conference tournament week and to track any possible Bid Stealers. This board's favorite Tigers are right there on the bubble and so we are hoping for the least amount of Bid stealers possible, but it will for certain happen to some degree. I plan to update this regularly.
AAC *Stolen Bid*
East Carolina will be an at large.
Championship:
Tulane vs Wichita St.
ACC
Championship:
Florida St. vs Duke
Big 12
Championship:
Oklahoma 3-9 Ok. State
Big East
Champion:
St Johns
Big Ten (Penn St. winning would steal a bid).
Championship:
Nebraska vs Penn St.
Big West
UC Santa Barbara 38-12 (22-4) RPI: #10
UC Irvine 40-11 (19-7) RPI: #25
Coastal Athletic
Championship:
UNCW vs Charleston (Charleston has to win twice)
Northeastern is most likely a at large.
Conference USA
Championship:
Dallas Baptist vs Louisiana Tech
Missouri Valley
Indiana St. is an at large
Championship:
Evansville 8-6 Indiana St. (Evansville takes the autobid)
Pac 12
Championship:
USC 3-4 Arizona FINAL
SEC
Championship:
LSU vs Tennessee
Southern Conference
Championship:
Wofford vs Samford
SunBelt Conference
Championship:
Southern Miss vs Georgia Southern
West Coast Conference
Championship
San Diego 6-4 Portland FINAL
(If you want to see the previous Day 1 Results find them in Page 6 of this thread).
(If you want to see the previous Day 2 Results find them in Page 8 of this thread).
(If you want to see the previous Day 3 Results find them in Page 10 of this thread).
AAC *Stolen Bid*
East Carolina will be an at large.
Championship:
Tulane vs Wichita St.
ACC
Championship:
Florida St. vs Duke
Big 12
Championship:
Oklahoma 3-9 Ok. State
Big East
Champion:
St Johns
Big Ten (Penn St. winning would steal a bid).
Championship:
Nebraska vs Penn St.
Big West
UC Santa Barbara 38-12 (22-4) RPI: #10
UC Irvine 40-11 (19-7) RPI: #25
Coastal Athletic
Championship:
UNCW vs Charleston (Charleston has to win twice)
Northeastern is most likely a at large.
Conference USA
Championship:
Dallas Baptist vs Louisiana Tech
Missouri Valley
Indiana St. is an at large
Championship:
Evansville 8-6 Indiana St. (Evansville takes the autobid)
Pac 12
Championship:
USC 3-4 Arizona FINAL
SEC
Championship:
LSU vs Tennessee
Southern Conference
Championship:
Wofford vs Samford
SunBelt Conference
Championship:
Southern Miss vs Georgia Southern
West Coast Conference
Championship
San Diego 6-4 Portland FINAL
(If you want to see the previous Day 1 Results find them in Page 6 of this thread).
(If you want to see the previous Day 2 Results find them in Page 8 of this thread).
(If you want to see the previous Day 3 Results find them in Page 10 of this thread).
This post was edited on 5/26/24 at 10:31 am
Posted on 5/19/24 at 1:45 pm to Traceg03
Sorry guys, I accidentally hit enter and now it is posted even though I am not done. I am going to continue to work on this.
Posted on 5/19/24 at 1:47 pm to Traceg03
I think I read last night that Maryland didn't even qualify for the Big 10 Tournament. So they probably have no chance.
Also, thanks for putting this thread together.
Also, thanks for putting this thread together.
This post was edited on 5/19/24 at 1:50 pm
Posted on 5/19/24 at 1:47 pm to Traceg03
Trace out here doing the Lord’s work. Appreciate your posts the past few days, baw
Posted on 5/19/24 at 1:52 pm to Traceg03
You can edit the post and add whatever you like
Posted on 5/19/24 at 2:23 pm to Traceg03
I think I am done for now. If anyone wants me to do anything to make it easier to track or add anything else feel free to let me know!
If this is deemed important enough we could Pin it so that all the conference championship talk could be put in here.
If this is deemed important enough we could Pin it so that all the conference championship talk could be put in here.
This post was edited on 5/19/24 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 5/19/24 at 2:29 pm to Traceg03
Looks like you and I have been doing a lot of similar research lately. I was working on a post like this one myself. I agree with your posted locks so far completed through the Big 10 at the time of my reply. I think Maryland at 10-14 on the Big 10 is out and I would add St John’s (RPI #63, 34-16-1, 14-7 Big East) to the bubble.
I don’t want to steal your thunder, but it doesn’t make sense for me to start another post doing the same thing, so here is the rest of my list, by conference strength rather than alphabetically.
SEC:
Locks (7): Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Miss St, Alabama
Bubble (4):
South Carolina 33-21 (13-17) RPI: #19
Vanderbilt 35-20 (13-17) RPI: #27
LSU: 36-20 (13-17) RPI: #30
Florida 28-26 (13-17) RPI: #24
ACC:
Locks (7): UNC, Clemson, FSU, NC St, Virginia, Wake Forest, Duke
Bubble (2):
Louisville: 32-22 (16-14) RPI: #52
Georgia Tech: 31-21 (15-15) RPI: #46
Big 12:
Locks (4): Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, W. Virginia
Bubble (4):
Cincinnati: 31-23 (17-13) RPI: #55
Kansas St: 31-22 (15-15) RPI: #41
UCF: 33-18 (14-15) RPI: #42
TCU: 31-19 (14-16) RPI: #39
PAC-12:
Locks (3): Oregon St, Arizona, Oregon
Bubble (1):
Cal: 34-18 (17-13) RPI: #65
Out:
Utah was in D1Baseball’s last projection, but they were swept by USC to fall to 32-21 (16-14) RPI: #80. Their conference record just isn’t strong enough to overcome their RPI.
Sun Belt:
Locks (2): ULL, USM
Bubble (3):
Troy: 36-20 (18-12) RPI: #53
James Madison: 32-21 (17-13) RPI: #44
Coastal Carolina: 33-21 (16-14) RPI: #35
Big 10:
Locks (2): Nebraska, Illinois
Bubble (1);
Indiana: 30-22-1 (15-9) RPI: #60
CUSA:
Locks (2): DBU, La Tech
Bubble (0);
None
Big West:
Locks (2): UCSB, UC-Irvine
Bubble (0);
None
CAA:
Locks (1): Northeastern
Bubble (2):
Charleston: 39-12 (21-5) RPI: #50
UNCW: 36-19 (20-7) RPI: #47
Big East:
Locks (1): UConn
Bubble (2);
St John’s: 34-16-1 (14-7) RPI: #63
Xavier: 29-25 (12-9) RPI: #38
Other Locks:
East Carolina (AAC)
Indiana St (MVC)
San Diego (WCC)
One-Bid Leagues: 17
Total:
Locks: 34
1-Bid Auto: 17
Bubble: 19 (13 spots minus bid thieves)
ETA: Originally I did not include the AAC, ACC, Big East, Big 10 and Big 12 since trace had already posted those conferences. Now that his list is complete, I decided to add those leagues in above.
I don’t want to steal your thunder, but it doesn’t make sense for me to start another post doing the same thing, so here is the rest of my list, by conference strength rather than alphabetically.
SEC:
Locks (7): Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Miss St, Alabama
Bubble (4):
South Carolina 33-21 (13-17) RPI: #19
Vanderbilt 35-20 (13-17) RPI: #27
LSU: 36-20 (13-17) RPI: #30
Florida 28-26 (13-17) RPI: #24
ACC:
Locks (7): UNC, Clemson, FSU, NC St, Virginia, Wake Forest, Duke
Bubble (2):
Louisville: 32-22 (16-14) RPI: #52
Georgia Tech: 31-21 (15-15) RPI: #46
Big 12:
Locks (4): Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, W. Virginia
Bubble (4):
Cincinnati: 31-23 (17-13) RPI: #55
Kansas St: 31-22 (15-15) RPI: #41
UCF: 33-18 (14-15) RPI: #42
TCU: 31-19 (14-16) RPI: #39
PAC-12:
Locks (3): Oregon St, Arizona, Oregon
Bubble (1):
Cal: 34-18 (17-13) RPI: #65
Out:
Utah was in D1Baseball’s last projection, but they were swept by USC to fall to 32-21 (16-14) RPI: #80. Their conference record just isn’t strong enough to overcome their RPI.
Sun Belt:
Locks (2): ULL, USM
Bubble (3):
Troy: 36-20 (18-12) RPI: #53
James Madison: 32-21 (17-13) RPI: #44
Coastal Carolina: 33-21 (16-14) RPI: #35
Big 10:
Locks (2): Nebraska, Illinois
Bubble (1);
Indiana: 30-22-1 (15-9) RPI: #60
CUSA:
Locks (2): DBU, La Tech
Bubble (0);
None
Big West:
Locks (2): UCSB, UC-Irvine
Bubble (0);
None
CAA:
Locks (1): Northeastern
Bubble (2):
Charleston: 39-12 (21-5) RPI: #50
UNCW: 36-19 (20-7) RPI: #47
Big East:
Locks (1): UConn
Bubble (2);
St John’s: 34-16-1 (14-7) RPI: #63
Xavier: 29-25 (12-9) RPI: #38
Other Locks:
East Carolina (AAC)
Indiana St (MVC)
San Diego (WCC)
One-Bid Leagues: 17
Total:
Locks: 34
1-Bid Auto: 17
Bubble: 19 (13 spots minus bid thieves)
ETA: Originally I did not include the AAC, ACC, Big East, Big 10 and Big 12 since trace had already posted those conferences. Now that his list is complete, I decided to add those leagues in above.
This post was edited on 5/19/24 at 3:03 pm
Posted on 5/19/24 at 2:30 pm to Traceg03
Was waiting for someone to do this. I’m a glutton for punishment so I crave these breakdowns for what we need to root for in order for our team to be selected.
Cheers
Cheers
This post was edited on 5/19/24 at 2:30 pm
Posted on 5/19/24 at 2:31 pm to Traceg03
Great work, and yes you can edit that first post as needed.
Posted on 5/19/24 at 2:35 pm to MikeTheTiger71
Where do you have 19 bubble teams listed? Looks like you have 10 listed. Don’t see any from ACC.
It would be nice to have all bubble teams listed together so we know who we want to lose throughout the weekend.
I think cal is out and 2 of those sun belt teams as well.
It would be nice to have all bubble teams listed together so we know who we want to lose throughout the weekend.
I think cal is out and 2 of those sun belt teams as well.
This post was edited on 5/19/24 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 5/19/24 at 2:36 pm to Traceg03
quote:
31 Conference Champs
I have seen this quoted in a number of places, but D1Baseball had only 30 conferences represented in their field and Warren Nolan has only 30 conferences ranked in his RPI list. I think the MEAC stopped sponsoring baseball to drop down to 30 auto-bids.
Posted on 5/19/24 at 2:36 pm to MikeTheTiger71
Great work Mike, I will add St. John when I get back to my computer. Yours is a way easier version to read. We are in agreement in a lot of things. What do you think about Arizona St for the pac 12? RPI too high to make a comeback let’s say they make it to the pac 12 championship but lose?
This post was edited on 5/19/24 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 5/19/24 at 2:39 pm to MikeTheTiger71
Yes MEAC dropped out so it is 30 now. I just read that.
Posted on 5/19/24 at 2:41 pm to IntenseKid
quote:
Where do you have 19 bubble teams listed? Looks like you have 10 listed. Don’t see any from ACC.
Sorry, I was trying not to duplicate the conferences he had already listed at the time I started my reply. (His original post was only through the Big 10.) My bubble list includes the 2 he has for the ACC (Louisville, Ga Tech), 4 B12 (TCU, KSU, UCF, Cincinnati), 1 Big 10 (Indiana), and 2 Big East (Xavier, St. John’s). I guess I should add in those leagues to my post now that his is complete.
Posted on 5/19/24 at 2:45 pm to Traceg03
quote:
What do you think about Arizona St for the pac 12? RPI too high to make a comeback let’s say they make it to the pac 12 championship but lose?
I think their overall record is too weak given their low RPI. I suppose if they make a run and Cal crashes out early they could sneak a bid if the committee is intent on 4 PAC-12 teams. I think more likely, neither makes the field.
Posted on 5/19/24 at 2:50 pm to MikeTheTiger71
That would be awesome.
Looking at bubbles teams currently, I think there are at least 6 schools that wouldn’t get in over any of the SEC bubble teams
Bubble teams all SEC teams should be in over: Xavier, St. John’s, Cal, Indiana, at least 1 ACC, at least 1 Big 12 and 1 or 2 of those sunbelt schools.
If there are more than 2-3 bid stealers our chances get worse.
The new field projections should help us gauge who is in better spots than others. While it’s not the Bible it’s a good guide. I assume we will be among last 4 in.
Looking at bubbles teams currently, I think there are at least 6 schools that wouldn’t get in over any of the SEC bubble teams
Bubble teams all SEC teams should be in over: Xavier, St. John’s, Cal, Indiana, at least 1 ACC, at least 1 Big 12 and 1 or 2 of those sunbelt schools.
If there are more than 2-3 bid stealers our chances get worse.
The new field projections should help us gauge who is in better spots than others. While it’s not the Bible it’s a good guide. I assume we will be among last 4 in.
This post was edited on 5/19/24 at 3:08 pm
Posted on 5/19/24 at 3:13 pm to IntenseKid
quote:
Bubble teams all SEC teams should be in over: Xavier, St. John’s, Cal, Indiana, at least 1 ACC, at least 1 Big 12 and 1 or 2 of those sunbelt schools.
Honestly, I think the 4 SEC teams I have on the bubble (I have Alabama as a lock because they won 5 conference series and have a high RPI) should get in over all the other teams on the bubble. The others either don’t have winning conference records either, have poor overall records, or have really weak RPI. Finding 13 teams on that list ahead of LSU is a stretch.
Posted on 5/19/24 at 3:26 pm to MikeTheTiger71
The D1 nerdcast podcast has a great breakdown of the projected field and why they selected who they selected. It's last week's information, but they'll update this week.
Posted on 5/19/24 at 4:18 pm to Traceg03
quote:
Georgia Tech 31-21 (15-15) RPI: #46
quote:
last d1 projections had 8 with Georgia Tech in
If both us and GT finish with around what we have now RPI wise, it would be a travesty to have them in over us.
Posted on 5/19/24 at 6:17 pm to Traceg03
quote:
Traceg03
Thank you for the hard work
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