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re: If trump wins I think housing rates will drop
Posted on 5/12/24 at 9:18 am to wareagle7298
Posted on 5/12/24 at 9:18 am to wareagle7298
rates are staying where they are and are going higher...
2
Posted on 5/12/24 at 9:24 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Trump is one of the reasons things arent affordable.
Half of them know this but won’t admit it the other half are so dumb they think only Biden’s spending contributed to inflation not Trump’s
Posted on 5/12/24 at 9:25 am to ronricks
quote:
Half of them know this but won’t admit it the other half are so dumb they think only Biden’s spending contributed to inflation not Trump’s
They look at the time table without understanding that inflation lags.
Trump absolutely contributed to inflation, Joe has just done everything he can to keep it high.
They also brag about Trumps economy, which gave them inflation.
Posted on 5/12/24 at 9:55 am to ScottFowler
quote:
rates are staying where they are and are going higher...
This
Posted on 5/12/24 at 10:05 am to bleedsgarnet
quote:
2 points by mid 2026..I'm ready to sell and build when that happens.
The immediate boost of business confidence will help put a dent in Biden's garbage.
Posted on 5/12/24 at 10:08 am to Wally Sparks
quote:
Interest rates were way too low to begin with for the better part of a decade.
It helped mitigate it with inflation under 2% when Trump left office.
Posted on 5/12/24 at 10:21 am to bleedsgarnet
The housing ponzi scheme is not sustainable.
Posted on 5/12/24 at 10:22 am to bleedsgarnet
If rates on MBS drop that isn’t a good thing
You guys work at an aggregator? That’s not how MBS prices work
quote:
rates are staying where they are and are going higher...
You guys work at an aggregator? That’s not how MBS prices work
This post was edited on 5/12/24 at 10:31 am
Posted on 5/12/24 at 10:57 am to bleedsgarnet
Like inflation, I see.
Posted on 5/12/24 at 11:14 am to bleedsgarnet
Rates are where they should have been all along. Games were played with money supply to get rates artificially low for so many years, but we have run out of games to play.
The problem is not rates, the problem is values. Artificfically low rates also created artificially high values. Rates have reset to where they should be, but prices have not.
The problem is not rates, the problem is values. Artificfically low rates also created artificially high values. Rates have reset to where they should be, but prices have not.
Posted on 5/12/24 at 11:28 am to TerryDawg03
.
quote:
How would this increase housing supply? The people selling the home would need to move somewhere. It would be a net zero. They would most likely either buy another home or occupy rental space.
Would suck for the renters but would put more houses on the market for sale.
Posted on 5/12/24 at 11:37 am to bleedsgarnet
quote:
If trump wins I think housing rates will drop
Rates are up because the Fed is trying to fight inflation, that inflation is being fed by consumers and the federal government continuing to create Dollars through historic levels of debt. Simply changing Presidents isn't going to change that reality, policies will have to be put in place (read: austerity) and those will need time to take effect before rates come down (or the economy starts going to shite, you don't drop rates when inflation is still high, especially when it's high and rising).
Posted on 5/12/24 at 11:40 am to bleedsgarnet
Interest rates need to go up not down. We don't need anymore free or cheap arse money.
Posted on 5/12/24 at 11:42 am to ScottFowler
quote:
rates are staying where they are and are going higher...
I dont think this is going to be true
Posted on 5/12/24 at 11:43 am to novabill
Short term, rates will fall because a recession will kick in shortly and inflation will wane because the great monetary expansion on 20-21 has had it effect and money supply has been retracting since.
Long term, housing prices will retract by 50% or so because structurally speaking, fewer people can qualify for the homes they want. And long term rates will prove resistant to declines because the fiscal situation is ominous.
I see lower housing prices, but then a long period of stagflation that may last for generations.
Long term, housing prices will retract by 50% or so because structurally speaking, fewer people can qualify for the homes they want. And long term rates will prove resistant to declines because the fiscal situation is ominous.
I see lower housing prices, but then a long period of stagflation that may last for generations.
This post was edited on 5/12/24 at 11:55 am
Posted on 5/12/24 at 11:49 am to bleedsgarnet
Trump worked JPow pretty hard his 1st term re: rates. But he was also running for re-election. I'm not so sure he will go as hard to lower rates this time around.
Posted on 5/12/24 at 11:53 am to JLivermore
Trump is set up for failure this time.
Posted on 5/12/24 at 12:03 pm to RogerTheShrubber
$400k home at 3% =$1700
$250k home at 7% = $1700
Prices aren’t dropping 40%
$250k home at 7% = $1700
Prices aren’t dropping 40%
Posted on 5/12/24 at 12:28 pm to BuzzdLightBeer
Midterm Forecast:
Housing Sector: Anticipate a significant correction in housing prices, possibly around a 30-50% reduction, as high DTI ratios and economic uncertainty weigh on demand.
Monetary Policy: Expect quantitative easing measures to be implemented to counter recessionary pressures, which may provide some support to mortgage rates but could be limited by the steepening yield curve.
Interest Rates: With the steepening yield curve, mortgage rates may not experience significant reductions, potentially remaining stable or experiencing only modest declines despite monetary easing efforts.
Economic Growth: Economic growth may remain sluggish due to subdued consumer spending and investment, exacerbated by the housing market downturn.
Inflation: Inflation may be subdued initially due to weak demand, but expect gradual increases driven by commodity price hikes as the economy stabilizes.
Commodity Prices: Foresee an inflationary effect on commodity prices due to quantitative easing measures and potential supply disruptions, leading to higher costs for consumers and businesses alike.
Basically we have the 70s all over again. Inflationary goods and service economy and bear market in the auto and real estate sector.
Welcome to your future.
Housing Sector: Anticipate a significant correction in housing prices, possibly around a 30-50% reduction, as high DTI ratios and economic uncertainty weigh on demand.
Monetary Policy: Expect quantitative easing measures to be implemented to counter recessionary pressures, which may provide some support to mortgage rates but could be limited by the steepening yield curve.
Interest Rates: With the steepening yield curve, mortgage rates may not experience significant reductions, potentially remaining stable or experiencing only modest declines despite monetary easing efforts.
Economic Growth: Economic growth may remain sluggish due to subdued consumer spending and investment, exacerbated by the housing market downturn.
Inflation: Inflation may be subdued initially due to weak demand, but expect gradual increases driven by commodity price hikes as the economy stabilizes.
Commodity Prices: Foresee an inflationary effect on commodity prices due to quantitative easing measures and potential supply disruptions, leading to higher costs for consumers and businesses alike.
Basically we have the 70s all over again. Inflationary goods and service economy and bear market in the auto and real estate sector.
Welcome to your future.
Posted on 5/12/24 at 5:54 pm to LSUSUPERSTAR
quote:
Obviously zero was not sustainable but what should it have been?
The Fed doesn't just set interest rates in a vacuum. Even if they set them at 1%, where will that capital come from? Banks can't lend what they don't have. The reason that rates were so low for the past 15 years is demographic, not political. We had our largest generation ever, the Boomers, in their highest earning, lowest consuming years of their lives. That difference between their incomes and expenses flooded the market with capital looking for some yield anywhere they could find it to build their retirement nest eggs. Now that the Boomers are mostly retired, they can't tolerate risk, so that capital that was in the market seeking yield has been converted into cash and T-Bills. Capital is now more expensive because there's less of it. Demand up+Supply down=Price up. I know this being the PT everyone views things through a political lens, but this is just basic economics playing itself out. Even if re-elected, Trump isn't going to be able to do anything about interest rates.
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