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re: Interesting career trend of Jay Johnson

Posted on 5/11/24 at 12:01 am to
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
65039 posts
Posted on 5/11/24 at 12:01 am to
quote:

Or it’s the trend of championship teams lately.

Look at the runners up too.

Oklahoma was runner up in 2022 and finished w a losing recird in the big 12 and were barely over .500 in 2023

Florida this year has a losing record in the SEC and is 1 game over .500 overall

As with all of college athletics, it’s a different game now. Teams are rebuilt every season
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
59271 posts
Posted on 5/11/24 at 5:40 am to
quote:

Or it’s the trend of championship teams lately.

Look at the runners up too.

Oklahoma was runner up in 2022 and finished w a losing recird in the big 12 and were barely over .500 in 2023

Florida this year has a losing record in the SEC and is 1 game over .500 overall

As with all of college athletics, it’s a different game now. Teams are rebuilt every season


No doubt. It's really, really hard to win now. Even harder to do it consistently. The irony is Skip changed the game, making it harder, yet fans still hold LSU to that standard. And it's just not possible any more. So many more teams have invested so much more money on facilities (for fans and more importantly, the players), recruiting, travel, and a host of other things that it's created a ton of parity, particularly in the SEC.

NIL and the portal have played a huge factor the last few years, but we're still seeing the effects of COVID as well. The MLB draft went from 50 rounds to 20, meaning there are fewer drafts 60% fewer draft picks and professional jobs available, so more players are both coming to campus out of high school AND staying in college past their 3rd years. With the free COVID year, guys got 6 years of eligibility if they redshirted (next year is the last year of that, I believe). So that 3rd year hasn't been a lot of their "leverage years" and more of the later round guys are choosing to stay. And a lot of the guys that are really good college baseball players, but have little to no professional prospects--especially with the fewer draft rounds, are coming back their 4th, 5th, and even 6th seasons. So there are a lot more older, experienced teams with more talent than the sport has every seen.

And just like schools are investing in the areas of college baseball that I mentioned earlier, they're also investing in coaching and support staffs. There are coaches being poached from MLB organizations that would have been minor league lifers at worst. Hell, we poached Wes Johnson when he was the Twins' big league pitching coach IN THE MIDDLE OF THEIR SEASON. The money and lifestyle makes the move very attractive for a lot these guys and they're the best of the best. So naturally, they are not only going to help entice more guys to come to campus and the same or different ones to stay--they know they can get just as good or similar development at a big time college program as they would in a few years in A ball. But with much better perks.

So more of the already better players coming to and staying in school longer added to the better development they'e getting makes for a whole lot of better, older, more experienced, and more advanced players than there has ever been before. And there's only so many scholarships, only so many roster spots, that all that talent has to be spread around more, creating more teams each year with a chance to win the CWS. And it makes the margin of error so small, especially in the SEC.

I mean, I don't think there's that big a difference between a 13-17 SEC team and a 17-13 one. Some bad injury luck (hell, LSU may have had the most talented roster in College Baseball history last year, but devastating injuries to Taylor, Edwards, and Shores--back of the bullpen guys who all threw mid-upper 90s almost derailed the season until some guys dropped their nuts and stepped up when we had to have them), some bad baseball luck (the season isn't long enough to always have that even out), and a team talented enough on paper may not make it out of the regionals, or get left out of the tourney altogether. It's really fricking hard to win now
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
59271 posts
Posted on 5/11/24 at 6:26 am to
But going back to your CWS Champions and runners-up point earlier. I don't think it's a coincidence teams have struggled the following season at this point. It's happened enough to be a trend. And makes sense. Teams can't be that good without having really good, draft-eligible players. And after winning the CWS--or even playing in the Finals--a lot will go ahead and start their professional careers when maybe, with a lesser season, would have come back. Sure, everybody dreamed of winning the CWS if they were college baseball fans growing up.

But a lot too, just wanted to play in Omaha. You can't do better than winning it, so those guys who reached the pinnacle of the sport and won NCs are likely to leave if they have the opportunity (still shocked Little and Coleman came back after winning and where they were drafted--I wasn't sure there would be enough innings for them on what appeared to be a very deep staff. Little found some innings, and despite his subpar outing last night probably made the right call. I'm not even sure Coleman still exists, and if he can't get innings on this staff, well I bet he wishes he would have gone ahead and signed).

But a lot of the guys who lost in the Finals are probably going to lean towards leaving too, realizing just how hard it was to get there and unlikelihood of doing it again. Also, besides good players leaving to start their professional baseball careers (or regular careers if they're out of eligibility), good assistant coaches will leave as well. It's pretty obvious by now that Wes Johnson is a really good baseball coach, not just a pitching coach--he's having a great 1st season at Georgia--and we clearly downgraded at pitching coach with Yeskie. I'm not on the "Yeskie sucks, Jay should shite-can him before we leave Tuscaloosa" train--I don't think most of have enough information to determine how good or bad he is. But I think we have enough to conclude he's not as good as Wes, as a pitching coach or just baseball coach in general. Jay clearly misses a lot of what he brought to the table.

Finally, I think it's also starting to become clear that making a deep run in Omaha puts you a little behind the 8-ball in regards to portal recruiting. Teams that get sent home from a Super, a regional, or who don't even make the tourney have a crucial 3-4 week head start on you with regards to scouting/evaluating and building relationships. I know Jay doesn't sleep and is all baseball 24/7, but even he couldn't keep up while trying to focus on winning in Omaha. That's the whole goal of recruiting, right?
To get the players you need to make it to Omaha and win it?

There's no way he was going to sacrifice as much time with last year's team, with the NC so within reach, as it would have taken to not fall behind in portal recruiting. Part of why he took Braswell so early. Didn't know if he'd have the time to find anybody better and knew he had to have a SS. Even if guys hadn't committed/signed by the time he got back to Baton Rouge, those relationships had already been fostered and proved too hard to overcome. I mean, if we made a deep Omaha run in '22, do we come away with Skenes and White and Hurd for '23?

I do think Jay made some mistakes this year (but I won't take up any more bandwidth right now delving into that). But he's still young and learning. He's never been the defending NC before. Probably some things he'd do differently. All coaches are still trying to navigate the new landscape of portal transfers and NIL. I don't know if he's the absolute "best" coach in college baseball, but I'm pretty sure he's up there. And just having seen him work the past 3 years, I don't think there's anybody I'd trust more to learn and adapt--and do it more quickly--than Jay.
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