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Message
Far Fetched just win today but hypothetically.
Posted on 5/10/24 at 1:17 pm
Posted on 5/10/24 at 1:17 pm
LSU is 2 games behind Vanderbilt and they have the H2H but they got Kentucky and Tennessee last two series so two really tough opponents. 1 game behind Florida they got Kentucky this week, Georgia next week. And then Ole Miss were tied but we play anyway and they got Texas AM this week.
If we managed to go say 5-1 or 6-0 could we sneak into like the 16th spot for hosting? Our RPI would jump massively from beating Alabama and Ole Miss.
If we finished in the 8th spot, the SEC has gotten 7-8 host before. Last year the SEC had 8 host.
I don’t know if I’d even want the 16th spot instead of finishing like #17, #18 and getting sent to the #8-9 seed #2 and then we would have a better super regional chance.
If we managed to go say 5-1 or 6-0 could we sneak into like the 16th spot for hosting? Our RPI would jump massively from beating Alabama and Ole Miss.
If we finished in the 8th spot, the SEC has gotten 7-8 host before. Last year the SEC had 8 host.
I don’t know if I’d even want the 16th spot instead of finishing like #17, #18 and getting sent to the #8-9 seed #2 and then we would have a better super regional chance.
This post was edited on 5/10/24 at 1:19 pm
5
Posted on 5/10/24 at 1:21 pm to Traceg03
Aggies should wipe out their pitching staff and set us up for a sweep
Posted on 5/10/24 at 1:25 pm to Traceg03
quote:LSU is not going to host. We have a 35 rpi and unranked in every poll and haven’t seen a single postseason projection this week that has LSU in a regional and there’s only 2 weeks to go.
If we finished in the 8th spot, the SEC has gotten 7-8 host before. Last year the SEC had 8 host.
Have to have a winning record in these 2 series just to get into a regional.
Posted on 5/10/24 at 1:26 pm to Traceg03
I think 6-0 with a run in the SEC tournament and we could host.
I could see us as a 2 or 3 at a high seed (say, Clemson or Fla State), the way things are playing out. They're not going to put us in a soft regional.
quote:Don't think it works that way, if we're 17 we get basically the same regional but don't host. We'd still be likely matched up with the 1 seed for the Super.
I don’t know if I’d even want the 16th spot instead of finishing like #17, #18 and getting sent to the #8-9 seed #2 and then we would have a better super regional chance.
I could see us as a 2 or 3 at a high seed (say, Clemson or Fla State), the way things are playing out. They're not going to put us in a soft regional.
Posted on 5/10/24 at 1:30 pm to Scoob
If Kentucky truly gets the 1 seed, I'd love to be matched up with them.
Smoke and fricking mirrors.
Smoke and fricking mirrors.
Posted on 5/10/24 at 1:34 pm to Traceg03
Tigers just need to win every game they can. Focus one game at a time, it’s all they need to do!
Posted on 5/10/24 at 1:50 pm to Traceg03
No, not far-fetched. Unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility. Just look at 2023 Alabama for reference.
Like LSU, Alabama didn't do a lot until the last few weeks of the season. They couldn't win a series against any good SEC teams. Lost 2/3 to Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas. Swept by LSU.
Going into the final 3 weeks of the season Alabama was 30-15. Then they got hot (I guess that can happen when your HC stops betting on you to lose). They went 7-2 in their final 3 series: 2-1 v Vandy; 2-1 v. A&M; 3-0 v. Ole Miss, to finish 16-14 in SEC play. They ended up hosting a regional.
8 SEC teams hosted a regional last season. While there is no formal cap on the amount of teams from one conference that can host, I'd say the committee wouldn't go over 8 simply because they don't want more than 1/2 of the host sites being from one conference.
Right now A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee all seem to be pretty strong bets to host. South Carolina and Mississippi State are probably close to that group as well. But if LSU were to finish 6-0 they would end the season with a record of 38-18 (15-15). To put that in context, Alabama went 38-17 (16-14) last year. A 6-0 finish would vault LSU above Florida and Ole Miss in the NCAAT pecking order (if they aren't there already) and would them in competition with Vanderbilt for a host spot. However, Vanderbilt 33-16 (11-13) finishes the season with Tennessee and Kentucky. A 6-0 finish for LSU would very likely put them above Vandy in the pecking order.
Now, given LSU has been blown out on most Sundays this season I would say 2 sweeps is HIGHLY unlikely. But if they somehow did it there would be an argument for LSU to host.
Like LSU, Alabama didn't do a lot until the last few weeks of the season. They couldn't win a series against any good SEC teams. Lost 2/3 to Florida, Kentucky, Arkansas. Swept by LSU.
Going into the final 3 weeks of the season Alabama was 30-15. Then they got hot (I guess that can happen when your HC stops betting on you to lose). They went 7-2 in their final 3 series: 2-1 v Vandy; 2-1 v. A&M; 3-0 v. Ole Miss, to finish 16-14 in SEC play. They ended up hosting a regional.
8 SEC teams hosted a regional last season. While there is no formal cap on the amount of teams from one conference that can host, I'd say the committee wouldn't go over 8 simply because they don't want more than 1/2 of the host sites being from one conference.
Right now A&M, Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee all seem to be pretty strong bets to host. South Carolina and Mississippi State are probably close to that group as well. But if LSU were to finish 6-0 they would end the season with a record of 38-18 (15-15). To put that in context, Alabama went 38-17 (16-14) last year. A 6-0 finish would vault LSU above Florida and Ole Miss in the NCAAT pecking order (if they aren't there already) and would them in competition with Vanderbilt for a host spot. However, Vanderbilt 33-16 (11-13) finishes the season with Tennessee and Kentucky. A 6-0 finish for LSU would very likely put them above Vandy in the pecking order.
Now, given LSU has been blown out on most Sundays this season I would say 2 sweeps is HIGHLY unlikely. But if they somehow did it there would be an argument for LSU to host.
This post was edited on 5/10/24 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 5/10/24 at 2:04 pm to Alt26
quote:yall really believe the margins are so tight in each game going forward that 5-1, 6-0 gets us a host?
Now, given LSU has been blown out on most Sundays this season I would say 2 sweeps is HIGHLY unlikely. But if they somehow did it there would be an argument for LSU to host.
•2-4 (11-19 SEC; 0% chance at postseason)
•3-3 (12-18 SEC; pretty unanimously agreed upon here on tRant this equals no postseason unless we win SECt)
•4-2 (13-17 SEC; pretty unanimously agreed upon here that LSU sneaks into a regional as a 3-seed in a regional. Historically only 38% of SEC teams have made a regional at 13-17)
But:
•5-1 or 6-0 then LSU is HOSTING a regional?
quote:
No, not far-fetched.
Idk seems pretty far fetched to me
LSU would have to win 9+ games imo between today and selection day to host a regional including SECt play but no reason to get your hopes up for something that won’t happen. LSU could advance through a regional and super without hosting.
Posted on 5/10/24 at 3:13 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
So basically your argument is TRant crowdsourcing opinion vs. actual data.
Last year on May 4th Alabama was 30-15 (9-12)
This year on May 3rd LSU was 29-17 (7-14)
Alabama went 7-2 in their final three SEC series over top 25 Vanderbilt, bubble team A&M, and bottom dweller Ole Miss to finish 38-17 (16-14)
Were LSU to go 6-0, that means they would go 8-1 in their final three SEC series over #1 A&M, fringe top 25 Alabama, and bottom dweller Ole Miss to finish 38-18 (15-15)
That means there would be a one game difference between 2024 LSU's and 2023 Alabama's record. Alabama was a host site (#16).
Again, is it more likely than not LSU would get a host site in that scenario? No. But I don't see how you can say it is "pretty far fetched" when an SEC team with a record almost identical to what LSU's would be if they went 6-0 was a host site just last year.
Last year on May 4th Alabama was 30-15 (9-12)
This year on May 3rd LSU was 29-17 (7-14)
Alabama went 7-2 in their final three SEC series over top 25 Vanderbilt, bubble team A&M, and bottom dweller Ole Miss to finish 38-17 (16-14)
Were LSU to go 6-0, that means they would go 8-1 in their final three SEC series over #1 A&M, fringe top 25 Alabama, and bottom dweller Ole Miss to finish 38-18 (15-15)
That means there would be a one game difference between 2024 LSU's and 2023 Alabama's record. Alabama was a host site (#16).
Again, is it more likely than not LSU would get a host site in that scenario? No. But I don't see how you can say it is "pretty far fetched" when an SEC team with a record almost identical to what LSU's would be if they went 6-0 was a host site just last year.
This post was edited on 5/10/24 at 3:16 pm
Posted on 5/10/24 at 3:19 pm to Alt26
quote:well there you go. You answered your own question. sounds like you agree it’s far fetched.
Were LSU to go 6-0, that means they would go 8-1 in their final three SEC series over #1 A&M, fringe top 25 Alabama, and bottom dweller Ole Miss to finish 38-18 (15-15)
That means there would be a one game difference between 2024 LSU's and 2023 Alabama's record. Alabama was a host site (#16).
Again, is it more likely than not LSU would get a host site in that scenario? No.
Every year is different. Bama had a top 10 RPI last year
This post was edited on 5/10/24 at 3:22 pm
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