re: Would we make the tourney if season ended today?

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No, LSU is tied for 11th place in the SEC. The most to ever make the NCAA tournament is 10 teams, which all came from the SEC 4 different seasons. Good thing is they play the 10th place team and the team they are tied for 11th with the final 2 weekends. Win 4 of 6 and they should get in. Win 5 of 6 and it will be a lock.

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I agree that it is very unlikely the SEC gets more than 10 teams in. But order of finish in conference play AND SEC Tournament performance (unless you win) is largely irrelevant. Look no further than 2021.

Georgia and LSU finished with equal 13-17 conference records. The tiebreaker had UGA as the 8th seed, while LSU was the 9th seed in the SEC Tournament. MOST on this board had the LSU v. Georgia game in the SEC Tournament as a de facto play in game. LSU lost. Panic ensued. What happened?

LSU reached the NCAA Tournament. Georgia did not.

LSU is not in today. But if they can take 2/3 from Alabama and (at least) 2/3 from Ole Miss they will have a pretty strong argument to get it. I would say slightly above a 50% chance.

Go 1/3 (or worse) vs Alabama and LSU probably has to sweep Ole Miss to have even a remote shot of getting in.