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Posted on 5/1/24 at 12:28 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
remember the reports that BI did not like Point Zion, and we kind of shrugged about it at the time.
its clear that it is very true, and it is never going to fully work between those two on the court.
I hope you're right. I just dont know if Griff's comments were about Z and CJ or Z and BI. Clearly CJ and Zion was working while BI and Z was not. I just dont see how we don't trade Ingram at this point. Sucks he tanked his value in the playoffs but at the same time, if he had played well, we probably dont trade him anyway.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 12:51 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:
Where do you play him? Center?
You kinda have to, because otherwise it doesn't solve the problem of trying to get both Herb and Trey in the starting lineup.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 12:53 pm to Epic Cajun
quote:
You kinda have to, because otherwise it doesn't solve the problem of trying to get both Herb and Trey in the starting lineup.
Let's just say for shits and gigs you're rolling out this lineup:
CJ
Herb
Trey
Zion
Lauri
First, you HAVE to get another Center that can play good minutes, a more rugged one, aka not Larry Nance.
Second...you've got to add another connector
Posted on 5/1/24 at 12:55 pm to WicKed WayZ
quote:
I just dont see how we don't trade Ingram at this point. Sucks he tanked his value in the playoffs but at the same time, if he had played well, we probably dont trade him anyway.
There's no way that Griff's head is in the sand so much that he thinks that we can go forward with Zion and BI. Literally no one thinks that is a tenable situation.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 1:15 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:Last part can't be overstated enough.
CJ
Herb
Trey
Zion
Lauri
Second...you've got to add another connector
This may sound crazy, and certainly I may be wrong, but I'd actually strongly quesiton the fit of Trey and Lauri together. Again, that is crazy on the surface, but hear me out.
First, disclaimer...Lauri is obviously better than Trey. But...as much as we talk about how Trey is totally dependent on guys getting him the ball and can't get his own buckets off the dribble, etc....
Trey this season:
% of 2pt FGs assisted: 67.5%
% of 3pt FGs assisted: 87.6%
Lauri this season:
% of 2pt FGs assisted: 74.2%
% of 3pt FGs assisted: 97.3%
As you can see, Lauri is even more dependent, much more in fact, at others setting him up for shots than Trey, which was very surprising when I checked that.
I just don't see how you have 2 guys playing many minutes together that are THAT level of dependent for others to get them shots without the aforementioned connector by Bunchie...
Unless...
We go full on leaning into heliocentric Zion. I'm talking Luka and Trae Young level ball in his hands at all times. And I just don't think that is feasible, I don't see Zion lasting like that, nor is he good enough as a ball handler for us to thrive like that...but I'd still love to see it lol. It would be absurdly dominant at times IMO, just not sustainable long term or in high leverage situations consistently
This post was edited on 5/1/24 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 5/1/24 at 1:16 pm to Epic Cajun
quote:There's no way that Griff thinks BI is the face of this franchise, so much so that we build everything around BI instead of Zion AND to top it off, go as far as to announce BI last in pre-game intros...
There's no way that Griff's head is in the sand so much that he thinks that we can go forward with Zion and BI. Literally no one thinks that is a tenable situation.
Or the more efficiently reply, Griff says, "hold my beer"
Posted on 5/1/24 at 1:19 pm to shel311
I hear you. It makes sense.
The ideal answer is to get a REAL lead guard that can take people off the dribble, hit a 3, and connect people, and a Center that can protect the rim and attack from the dunker spot.
Easier said than done, because Guards like that aren't usually available, and if they are, they are trying to push their way out of small market
The ideal answer is to get a REAL lead guard that can take people off the dribble, hit a 3, and connect people, and a Center that can protect the rim and attack from the dunker spot.
Easier said than done, because Guards like that aren't usually available, and if they are, they are trying to push their way out of small market
Posted on 5/1/24 at 2:16 pm to shel311
quote:
As you can see, Lauri is even more dependent, much more in fact, at others setting him up for shots than Trey, which was very surprising when I checked that.
That's completely normal for a big man. They are only taking C&S 3's. they aren't creating anything on their own.
KAT is at 97% as well this year. Porzingis at 98%.
But I do get what you are saying.
If we can get someone like Lauri, that should be the move to make though. He's the exact kind of guy you need playing the 5 with Zion.
If notLauri, then the goal should be to get a PG with the ability to create, like Sexton or Murray, and then go after a defensive center and try your best to find a backup small ball guy.
In an ideal world, we can move BI to utah for Sexton and Kessler.
Then we can move CJ to Philly or a 3rd team for Tobias Harris.
I've mentioned that before (Murray instead of Sexton), but we'd have a closing lineup of Murray or Sexton, and then Herb/Trey/Zion/Tobias. I think there's plenty enough length and and effort rebounding with that lineup, and everyone is capable of making a basket if run off the 3 point line.
If we did all of that we'd have more than enough to use the full MLE to get a backup 4 if we wanted to actually use the MLE for once.
Sexton/Jose
Herb/Dyson/Hawkins
Trey/Naji/Ryan
Zion/Tobias
Kessler/Nance
That's 12 guys with $141M in salary, and the tax line is $171. Ideally i'd trade Nance and 2 firsts to the Magic for Isaac.
I think it's goign to be a crazy summer and there's goign to be a lot of movement. Phoenix isn't running it back, and if the Clippers bow out again, neither are they. It's stupid to have 3 guys that are 25+ppg guys. Two is all you need, and then elite role players to go with those 2.
The Knicks, Sixers, Nets, Magic, Pacers, Pelicans, Kings, OKC are all goign to look to add to their team. The Bulls, Heat, Bucks, Cavs, Hawks, and Warriors all of big decisions to make this offseason on their future.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 2:25 pm to TeddyPadillac
There's a lot to like about what you propose, but that bench has basically no shooting at all.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 2:32 pm to Fun Bunch
watchu talking bout willis?
Sexton 39% from 3 this year
Herb 42% from 3 this year
Trey 38% from 3 this year
Naji 39% from 3 this year
Jose 38% from 3 this year
Ryan 45% from 3 this year
Hawkins will be better than 37% from 3.
Nance 42% from 3 this year, or you can trade him for Isaac at 38% this year
Harris 35% this year, career 37%
Dyson 42% on corner 3's this year.
Outside of Kessler, where's the guy that can't shoot?
Sexton 39% from 3 this year
Herb 42% from 3 this year
Trey 38% from 3 this year
Naji 39% from 3 this year
Jose 38% from 3 this year
Ryan 45% from 3 this year
Hawkins will be better than 37% from 3.
Nance 42% from 3 this year, or you can trade him for Isaac at 38% this year
Harris 35% this year, career 37%
Dyson 42% on corner 3's this year.
Outside of Kessler, where's the guy that can't shoot?
Posted on 5/1/24 at 3:02 pm to TeddyPadillac
A prime example of numbers lying.
First, 3 people you listed would be starters so pointing them out is irrelevant to the point.
I don’t believe in any of the other guys that would actually play (re: not Matt Ryan) to be consistent volume shooters that provide space
First, 3 people you listed would be starters so pointing them out is irrelevant to the point.
I don’t believe in any of the other guys that would actually play (re: not Matt Ryan) to be consistent volume shooters that provide space
Posted on 5/1/24 at 3:04 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
watchu talking bout willis?
I believe he's talking about spacing. Remember when Dante Cunningham shot nearly 40% from 3? Teams didn't care because he took so few. Look at this list of 3 pointers made per 36 minutes: LINK Where do you think the cut off is to have gravity? About 3 3s made per 36? That's about where I'd draw the line. Here are the Pels per 36 3PM this season.
CJ McCollum 4
Matt Ryan 3.8
Trey Murphy III 3.6
Jordan Hawkins 3.4
Jose Alvarado 2.7
Herbert Jones 1.8
Naji Marshall 1.7
Brandon Ingram 1.5
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 1.4
Dyson Daniels 1.1
Larry Nance Jr. 0.8
Jose is close, it would take a good bit more effort for Herb or Naji to get there. For reference Dejounte Murray is at 2.6 while Sexton is at 2.2.
Also, I'd argue that being between less than 3 but more than 2 probably means you make teams pay for leaving you open at a decent rate, so it's not like it's 3 or bust, but how can we say BI doesn't take enough 3s making 1.5 per 36 and then turn around and call Herb and Naji shooters when they barely make more than BI?
This post was edited on 5/1/24 at 3:05 pm
Posted on 5/1/24 at 3:36 pm to TigerinATL
I'd say go ahead and keep leaving the guys open that are shooting 40% from 3 if you'd like, and Zion will have 10+ assists a game and we'll kick your arse.
No one's ever goign to care about Jose, Naji, Herb, or any big shooting a 3. They don't shoot quick enough for a defender to have to stick to them. It's not about how many 3's you take and make. it's the way you shoot them.
Remember Mirotic creating all kinds of space with his 3. The guy shot under 36% for us in 60 games yet defenders were always chasing him around the 3 point line. It's b/c he could get his shot off quickly and off the run.
Hawkins and Ryan can go 1-3 from 3 to Herbs 5-8, and they'll still create more spacing than Herb b/c they can get their shot off in a moments notice off of movement and still be a good shooter. That requires a defender to actually care about them off the ball. No one is ever going to care about Herb off the ball. He can shoot 40% from 3 for his career, but no one's following him around like they would Hawkins.
Herb goes around picks and the defender just goes under the screen, no big deal. Hawkins goes around a pick and the defense has to make a decision on if they want to switch, or if they have to switch b/c they can't let him catch and shoot a rhythm 3.
Hawkins was a team high 1.26 points per possession off screens on 57 possessions. He actually had almost twice as many plays coming off screens than Trey did this year, and Trey was at 1.06ppp, CJ at 0.81 PPP, BI at 1.2 PPP
That 1.26 was in the 87th percentile in the league. Maybe play the kid more, and when you do, run plays for him coming off screens b/c good things will happen regardless if you throw the ball to him or not.
Here's a look at our most successful play types as far as Points Per Possession go.
PNR with Trey as the roll man 1.49, only 35 possessions
PNR with Trey with the ball 1.35, only 40 possessions
Both of those are in the 95th percentile in the league.
CJ with spot up shots at 1.32 PPP. 96th percentile
Zion and JV both at around 120 possessions each on cuts to the basket. Zion at 1.42 PPP and JV at 1.33 PPP. Herb with 38 possessions at 1.33 PPP. Zion was only at the 72nd percentile on his.
There were no other play types that were over 1.2 PPP for any individual that had at least 30 possessions.
Zion had 350 possessions of ISO scored at 1.04 PPP in the 75th percentile
BI had 159 possessions of ISO at 0.96 PPP in the 57th percentile
JV with 222 possessions of post ups at 1.07 PPP in the 78th percentile
Zion with 188 possessions of post ups at 0.89 PPP in the 28th percentile.
No one's ever goign to care about Jose, Naji, Herb, or any big shooting a 3. They don't shoot quick enough for a defender to have to stick to them. It's not about how many 3's you take and make. it's the way you shoot them.
Remember Mirotic creating all kinds of space with his 3. The guy shot under 36% for us in 60 games yet defenders were always chasing him around the 3 point line. It's b/c he could get his shot off quickly and off the run.
Hawkins and Ryan can go 1-3 from 3 to Herbs 5-8, and they'll still create more spacing than Herb b/c they can get their shot off in a moments notice off of movement and still be a good shooter. That requires a defender to actually care about them off the ball. No one is ever going to care about Herb off the ball. He can shoot 40% from 3 for his career, but no one's following him around like they would Hawkins.
Herb goes around picks and the defender just goes under the screen, no big deal. Hawkins goes around a pick and the defense has to make a decision on if they want to switch, or if they have to switch b/c they can't let him catch and shoot a rhythm 3.
Hawkins was a team high 1.26 points per possession off screens on 57 possessions. He actually had almost twice as many plays coming off screens than Trey did this year, and Trey was at 1.06ppp, CJ at 0.81 PPP, BI at 1.2 PPP
That 1.26 was in the 87th percentile in the league. Maybe play the kid more, and when you do, run plays for him coming off screens b/c good things will happen regardless if you throw the ball to him or not.
Here's a look at our most successful play types as far as Points Per Possession go.
PNR with Trey as the roll man 1.49, only 35 possessions
PNR with Trey with the ball 1.35, only 40 possessions
Both of those are in the 95th percentile in the league.
CJ with spot up shots at 1.32 PPP. 96th percentile
Zion and JV both at around 120 possessions each on cuts to the basket. Zion at 1.42 PPP and JV at 1.33 PPP. Herb with 38 possessions at 1.33 PPP. Zion was only at the 72nd percentile on his.
There were no other play types that were over 1.2 PPP for any individual that had at least 30 possessions.
Zion had 350 possessions of ISO scored at 1.04 PPP in the 75th percentile
BI had 159 possessions of ISO at 0.96 PPP in the 57th percentile
JV with 222 possessions of post ups at 1.07 PPP in the 78th percentile
Zion with 188 possessions of post ups at 0.89 PPP in the 28th percentile.
This post was edited on 5/1/24 at 3:39 pm
Posted on 5/1/24 at 3:37 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
Dyson 42% on corner 3's this year.
Talk about picking cherries...
Look, I've been Dyson's biggest supporter on this board, but 3P shooting is not one of his strengths. Sure he hit a decent clip from the corner on a very low sample size, but he still only shot 31.2% from 3.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 3:55 pm to SHMILL
quote:
Just get a legit point guard to orchestrate the offense and it’ll all come together.
The fact of the matter is if we give BI a 30% max, we will be a small market tax team while Zion is only 24 with limited ability to improve. I don't care about Benson's money, but she does. Reality of the situation is she will only pay the tax if we are close to a championship.
We are not close to a championship with Ingram as our #2 to Zion. Signing BI to a max extension just puts an anchor arouind our neck and makes us desperate to win now. We'll make some bad trades for a center and we'll never make it past the 2nd round.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 3:55 pm to Galactic Inquisitor
It's a real stat is it not? He shoudlnt' be shooting from anywhere else anyway at this point.
That's what you got out of me pointing out we'd have 9 other guys who can shoot on the team?
And as i pointed out in my long arse post, it doesn't matter if Dyson shoots 45% from 3 or 35% from 3, no one's guarding him off the ball and they will always let him shoot.
I don't disagree that we likely need another creator after Zion and Sexton, but we've got more than enough C&S 3 point shooters. If teams are going to make it hard on Zion to score 25 a night b/c they pack the paint, then fine, we'll just fire away from 3 at a high rate.
That's what you got out of me pointing out we'd have 9 other guys who can shoot on the team?
And as i pointed out in my long arse post, it doesn't matter if Dyson shoots 45% from 3 or 35% from 3, no one's guarding him off the ball and they will always let him shoot.
I don't disagree that we likely need another creator after Zion and Sexton, but we've got more than enough C&S 3 point shooters. If teams are going to make it hard on Zion to score 25 a night b/c they pack the paint, then fine, we'll just fire away from 3 at a high rate.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 4:03 pm to duyp
quote:
They see Lauri more of a high 2 than a 1 option.
Lauri is a mid 2 option. I don't think people actually watch Jazz basketball. Lauri is assisted on 98% of his made 3's and 74% of his made 2's.
I don't love the Lauri fit here. He's not realy a playmaker and doesn't create much offense outside of putbacks.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 4:12 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
No one's ever goign to care about Jose, Naji, Herb, or any big shooting a 3. They don't shoot quick enough for a defender to have to stick to them. It's not about how many 3's you take and make. it's the way you shoot them.
Understand what you are trying to say, but shooting gravity is entirely tied to number of 3's. You cannot get off 8+ 3PA's per game unless you are truly a shooter (Jalen Green might be the exception as he DGAF). Herb could never average 8 3PA's per game because his shot is too slow and he only shoots well catching and shooting in the corner.
Posted on 5/1/24 at 4:41 pm to NOFOX
quote:What I'm worried about is this...
We are not close to a championship with Ingram as our #2 to Zion.
The odds we trade BI for a #2 are pretty low. I'm worried we don't trade BI because losing BI would mean we have no #2.
The problem with this is BI is already not good enough to be a #2, so we already right now do not have a #2, so the idea of not making a trade because we wouldn't have a #2 just doesn't make sense.
Just really scared with that meshing with Griff's history about reluctance to pull a trade unless he thinks he's absolutely getting the win compared to sometimes where you just have to pull the trigger and get best value possible.
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