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re: Do we have an argument to get in a regional…
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:07 pm to Honkus
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:07 pm to Honkus
Their SEC schedule that year was just as brutal as ours this year. Looking like we will a similar overall record.
I did notice they won a couple games in Hoover. So the best I can tell, that seems like a good comp for us.
The point of this post was to dig down and see what if any opportunities we had based on precedent bc a lot of negatigers assume the season is over bc we lost yesterday.
It doesn’t look great but based on 2021 Bama there appears to be a path even if we only get to 12
I did notice they won a couple games in Hoover. So the best I can tell, that seems like a good comp for us.
The point of this post was to dig down and see what if any opportunities we had based on precedent bc a lot of negatigers assume the season is over bc we lost yesterday.
It doesn’t look great but based on 2021 Bama there appears to be a path even if we only get to 12
0
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:12 pm to Alt26
If they were to somehow take 2 of 3 from a&m, and get to 13 wins. They may have a shot.
13 wins with series wins against bama, Ole Miss, auburn, and mizzou. Doubtful that they make it.
13 wins with series wins against bama, Ole Miss, auburn, and mizzou. Doubtful that they make it.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:14 pm to Honkus
I dunno, i think A&M is the best team in the country
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:16 pm to josh336
Judging off the series against Arkansas and Tennessee, hoping for 1 win against A&M seems reasonable yet still a lot to ask for.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:19 pm to FredbullTN
quote:
Does anyone actually know what the least amount of SEC wins a team has had and made the tournament? Could have sworn I saw someone say we made it one year with 11 or 12 wins.
2009 Vandy 12-17 (37-27) made it but 12-18 (28-26) did not. 8 SEC teams in that year
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 2:20 pm
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:27 pm to FredbullTN
No, move on.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:33 pm to Choupique19
quote:
LSU will get in a regional at 13-17, regardless of how it happens over the next 3 weeks
I don't think I would go that far. LSU needs 6 wins to get to 13. If three of those come against Ole Miss that's not going to have much of an impact given Ole Miss isn't very good. LSU really needs 4 of the requisite 6 more wins to come against Alabama and (especially) A&M to feel better.
LSU's overall resume just isn't very good. Their non-conf. SOS isn't good (currently 137) and probably won't get much better (might get worse) with only games against Grambling and Northwestern St. remaining.
In conference they are 3-12 against likely NCAA Tournament teams. Ole Miss isn't a likely NCAA Tournament team, so piling up 3 wins against them won't register too much.
Texas A&M made a regional last year with a 14-16 SEC record. But their overall resume was more impressive than LSU's (at the moment). A&M took 2/3 from Auburn, Kentucky and Florida (all NCAAT teams). Plus, they had a better NC SOS than LSU (not great, but better).
Compare that to LSU who, to date, has done NOTHING noteworthy. They have only two SEC series wins...against two of the worst teams in the league who won't make the NCAAT. Ole Miss likely won't make the NCAAT either, so winning a series from them probably won't register much either.
Could 13 SEC wins get LSU in? Yes. But it may depend upon what those 13 look like. 13 wins with over half coming against the bottom of the SEC (Auburn, Missouri, Ole Miss) won't make a strong argument
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:41 pm to FredbullTN
quote:
If we don’t get to 13 or 14 SEC wins?
no
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:59 pm to FredbullTN
quote:
but I do believe there isn’t any team in the country that wants to see LSU in their regional.
It is what it is, but I really don't see this LSU team striking fear in anyone this year. They just don't have the firepower, offensively. Not trying to hate on them, but it's just fact. They struggle to score runs, especially the crooked numbers.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:01 pm to FredbullTN
quote:
Looking at 2021 their schedule doesn’t look too much different than ours except you could argue their OOC schedule was worse.
No you can’t. Their non conference SOS was 76th. Ours is is currently 137th.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:03 pm to JimTiger72
quote:
They should be close to top 16
They have an RPI of 51. ULL is closer to being a 3 seed than hosting a regional.
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 3:06 pm
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:04 pm to FredbullTN
Honestly, our only argument is, if we're on the bubble, we are the defending champions and the college baseball version of Alabama. Reputation will get us some consideration that other schools won't get.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:07 pm to Alt26
SOS is flawed in the sense of how many more wins would LSU have if they had the same schedule of some of the lower end top 25 teams. There is nothing about ULL, Utah, or Indiana States schedules that scream out “difficult”. Each team only has what 54 games, and for LSU more than half come against the best teams in the nation. When they understandably lose those games they are at a significant disadvantage.
I don’t understand RPI and haven’t put the effort in to understanding it, but is it supposed to be a better metric than overall SOS?
Does the committee give more weight to sos or rpi when looking at this group of 34 or so teams and trying to make a decision? I appreciate your input as you seem very knowledgeable on all this.
Also just to clarify, I’ve never meant to suggest that LSU deserves to be in over teams like ULL, or Utah. I was simply asking once we got to the point of looking at the human element, what all factors were taken into consideration. From where I’m sitting there is evidence that LSU is better than ULL when you factor in wins vs top 25 teams, common opponents, and head to head matchup so when discussing the last teams in, that seems like a valid argument.
I don’t understand RPI and haven’t put the effort in to understanding it, but is it supposed to be a better metric than overall SOS?
Does the committee give more weight to sos or rpi when looking at this group of 34 or so teams and trying to make a decision? I appreciate your input as you seem very knowledgeable on all this.
Also just to clarify, I’ve never meant to suggest that LSU deserves to be in over teams like ULL, or Utah. I was simply asking once we got to the point of looking at the human element, what all factors were taken into consideration. From where I’m sitting there is evidence that LSU is better than ULL when you factor in wins vs top 25 teams, common opponents, and head to head matchup so when discussing the last teams in, that seems like a valid argument.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:17 pm to FredbullTN
Win 2 out of 3 at A&M and you may have a chance. But not really lol.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:27 pm to LSBoosie
Mcneese, Jacksonville State, UT Martin, wright State, Troy, College of Charleston, south Alabama, Stetson, Southern Miss, ULM, Samford, North Alabama, and UAB.
I don’t see any note worthy games outside of Southern Miss which would be the equivalent of us beating ULL this year. Btw they lost that game. JS.
Congrats to McNeese for not sucking that year and boosting that strength of schedule for Bama. One of McNeeses wins that year was against freaking LSU-A
That’s exactly why sos is a flawed metric. Looking at this years sos the #67 ranked team has an opp win % at 55 and #137 is at 52%. What are we even talking about here?
I don’t see any note worthy games outside of Southern Miss which would be the equivalent of us beating ULL this year. Btw they lost that game. JS.
Congrats to McNeese for not sucking that year and boosting that strength of schedule for Bama. One of McNeeses wins that year was against freaking LSU-A
That’s exactly why sos is a flawed metric. Looking at this years sos the #67 ranked team has an opp win % at 55 and #137 is at 52%. What are we even talking about here?
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 3:47 pm
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:38 pm to FredbullTN
quote:
but I do believe there isn’t any team in the country that wants to see LSU in their regional.
Lol
Nobody is scared of this team
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:43 pm to FredbullTN
No, just no. As I said before, if we were to get into some regional, we would just get our shite pushed in. Let it go, this season is over.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:44 pm to saltytiger2
Two of three against A &M gives you an argument, but truth is, if you take of the P & G glasses, this team has not shown itself to be deserving.
Maybe the Rally Possum can work another miracle...
Maybe the Rally Possum can work another miracle...
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:55 pm to FredbullTN
If it happens this is going to be a run for the ages.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 4:09 pm to CWILKS3
quote:same thing was said in 2011 baw. Don’t underestimate the committees ability to screw LSU
If LSU has 13 conference wins, they’re getting in with their RPI. I don’t understand how some of you have yet to grasp this.
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 4:10 pm
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