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re: If Brock Bowers or Rome Odunze are still on the board at 14, do you take one of them?
Posted on 4/5/24 at 9:52 am to GynoSandberg
Posted on 4/5/24 at 9:52 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
This isn’t 2005 where your TEs wear neck rolls and line up inline every snap. Guys like Micah parsons are coming into the league at 245. It’s a smaller game on the edges now
So he's a slot receiver. Got it. Still not worth a top 10 pick.
2
Posted on 4/5/24 at 9:59 am to GynoSandberg
quote:
That’s shitty logic but I’ll play. There are a ton of 1st rd busts at OL. We drafted Ruiz and Penning in the 1st rd. That position is no less hit or miss than any other position.
Actual facts are so annoying, right?
And another one
You still think TE in the first round isn't more of a risk than OT?
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:04 am to Handsome Pete
You have to assess it risk compared to potential value.
Also, that measure is bad. Just because a player signs a 2nd contract with a team doesn't mean it's a big contract. Just because a player signs a 2nd contract with another team doesn't mean he's a bust.
Also, that measure is bad. Just because a player signs a 2nd contract with a team doesn't mean it's a big contract. Just because a player signs a 2nd contract with another team doesn't mean he's a bust.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:06 am to Handsome Pete
quote:
So he's a slot receiver
He can line up at slot, X, in-line, or FB. That's why elite modern TEs have so much value.
The problem for your argument is that you're not offering comparable projection for OTs. If these were elite OT prospects, then it probably wouldn't be an argument...but they're not.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:09 am to SlowFlowPro
a huge problem in what we are missing is the current staff's assessment of our guys on roster.
How do they still see Penning and where?
How much is or isn't left in tank for Ram?
Do they see Ram's heir already on roster? (Young or Saldiveri)
Is Hurst still a starter at LG?
What are the current status of negotiations with Project Peat?
How do they still see Penning and where?
How much is or isn't left in tank for Ram?
Do they see Ram's heir already on roster? (Young or Saldiveri)
Is Hurst still a starter at LG?
What are the current status of negotiations with Project Peat?
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:16 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
You have to assess it risk compared to potential value.
You want to bring value into the equation?
This is from an article about the Pats drafting a QB but the same argument can apply to every position.
quote:
If we compare that contract value to what the average top-10 player at each position (or top-20 player for each position when a team typically has two players on the field at one time, like wide receiver or edge rusher) has landed on multiyear veteran deals, we get a sense of what the market looks like for each position. We can use that information to estimate how confident the Patriots would have to be about whomever they take at No. 3 to justify making that pick. What that evidence suggests tells us why teams are comfortable pushing quarterbacks up their board:
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:23 am to Chad504boy
Was wondering the same thing. Its the off season leading into the draft. How does the team know what guys like Evans, Saldiveri and Kraemer are doing and how they are coming along cause that affects who they draft and where. Young and Udoh only have 8 years between them but a lot more tape to look at and assess. Would like to ask a former coach or player.
Hurst is going on his 11 year. With 3 young guys on the bench, Udo coming in (I think he competes for a guard spot) not to mention several drafted and UDFA will be coming to camp it may be hard for Hurst to stick another year.
Would be nice if Landon claimed the RT spot and Udo at LG with your 1st rounder at LT. I didn't put Penning in at LG cause on paper Penning and a rookie on the left side looks sketchy as hell
Hurst is going on his 11 year. With 3 young guys on the bench, Udo coming in (I think he competes for a guard spot) not to mention several drafted and UDFA will be coming to camp it may be hard for Hurst to stick another year.
Would be nice if Landon claimed the RT spot and Udo at LG with your 1st rounder at LT. I didn't put Penning in at LG cause on paper Penning and a rookie on the left side looks sketchy as hell
This post was edited on 4/5/24 at 10:39 am
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:29 am to Handsome Pete
quote:
You want to bring value into the equation?
I didn't say positional value.
We're talking about evaluating prospects.
If you draft an OT with a 6th round grade in the 1st, you can argue "well OTs are safer picks" while ignoring the value of the prospect in that analysis.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:30 am to Chad504boy
quote:
a huge problem in what we are missing is the current staff's assessment of our guys on roster.
How do they still see Penning and where?
How much is or isn't left in tank for Ram?
Do they see Ram's heir already on roster? (Young or Saldiveri)
Is Hurst still a starter at LG?
What are the current status of negotiations with Project Peat?
This is all an argument against drafting for need, in addition to the others.
We don't know what our needs are with a new coaching staff/offense.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:40 am to SlowFlowPro
Agree with that but we seem to need help in 3 of the 5 oline spots. Who knows if/who they may have already penciled in at some of those.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:41 am to LSUPilot07
literal 0 chance Odunze is on the board if he is, he's BPA and you take him. anyone saying taking a T over him is stupid.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:46 am to Handsome Pete
quote:
Actual facts are so annoying, right?
That is such a terrible metric to determine hits and misses. Based on that metric AJ Brown would have been a bust. Note I understand that AJB was a 2nd but he was a prime example that came straight to my head. Also it looks like the range is from 2000 to 2016. The game and scouting has changed so much since then.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:47 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
I didn't say positional value.
We're talking about evaluating prospects.
Ah. Well you can tell I love draft statistics. All fun and games aside, it's a philosophical question and positional value can't be ignored. Do you gamble on Bowers being a spectacular TE for the Saints (because he'll be paid like one), or is it safer to bet one of the top 4 OT prospects will be a good to very good tackle for the next 5 years (and they'll instead be at the lower end of the pay scale for a good OT). I favor playing it safe.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:52 am to Handsome Pete
quote:
Do you gamble on Bowers being a spectacular TE for the Saints (because he'll be paid like one), or is it safer to bet one of the top 4 OT prospects will be a good to very good tackle for the next 5 years (and they'll instead be at the lower end of the pay scale for a good OT).
I think bowers is a safer pick than any of the tackles not named Alt to be honest. Also are you saying that you want a good player instead of a great player so you don’t have to pay him?
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:56 am to Mpd31
quote:
That is such a terrible metric to determine hits and misses. Based on that metric AJ Brown would have been a bust. Note I understand that AJB was a 2nd but he was a prime example that came straight to my head. Also it looks like the range is from 2000 to 2016. The game and scouting has changed so much since then.
You don't like that metric? Here's another.
LINK
Find me any data suggesting OT isn't historically a much safer pick than TE. Please. If you're in love with Brock Bowers and think he'll buck those stats, great, but don't act like it's a no-brainer. Plenty of can't-miss prospects have missed big time.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:59 am to Mpd31
quote:
Also are you saying that you want a good player instead of a great player so you don’t have to pay him?
No. I'm saying we (including NFL scouts) are not good at predicting who will be great. If you think you are, fine.
For me, if it's close I'll go with the historical data that says OT is more likely to hit. Not to mention it's a much bigger positional need for the Saints.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 11:21 am to ForTheWin81
If you don't get a tackle to protect the QB then you could have Brady, Jerry Rice, Randy Moss and Gronk and it wouldn't matter
Posted on 4/5/24 at 12:09 pm to Handsome Pete
quote:
For me, if it's close I'll go with the historical data that says OT is more likely to hit. Not to mention it's a much bigger positional need for the Saints.
Yeah if it was close but it isn’t . Rome and Bowers are both so much better prospects than any of the tackles not named Alt.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 12:14 pm to Handsome Pete
quote:
You don't like that metric? Here's another. LINK
So based off your chart it is a bad investment to draft an offensive lineman in the first round. Yeah you really knocked it out of the park with that one.
This post was edited on 4/5/24 at 12:15 pm
Posted on 4/5/24 at 1:26 pm to Handsome Pete
quote:
Actual facts are so annoying, right?
Starr a thread asking if saint fans think Cesar Ruiz was a first round draft hit bc he signed a second contract here. Or you could use PFF metrif to tell you he’s been one of the worst guards in the league since he got here. He could seemingly lose his job this year but hey he signed a second contract
quote:
You still think TE in the first round isn't more of a risk than OT?
Did you read the thread or just jumped in 10 pages later? I think bowers is safer than any OT outside of Alt
Tell me specifically which OT you think are safer? We can revisit it. You’re already on record saying these other TEs will outperform Bowers, yes?
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