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Posted on 2/20/24 at 11:42 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Here is your RIDICULOUSLY optimistic post of the day.
LSU's current NET ranking is 88. They are 5-10 vs. Q1/2 opponents. They are 4-8 away from home. Needless to say, is NOT a NCAA Tournament team right now...or even close. But....
their next two opponents (UK and Miss. St.) are at the moment. The at large teams generally mocked in the 11 seed range (which is part of the play-in games) or in the conversation have NET rankings anywhere between 45-65 or so.
If (HUGE if) LSU were to somehow win out they would finish 19-12. Two of those wins would be over top 40 teams (UK and MSU). And two would be on the road (Arkansas and Vandy). Road wins are like gold to the selection committee. So while a 4-8 record away from home isn't great, 6-8 is obviously a bit better. There were teams that made the tournament last year with losing records away from home. Also of note, LSU's current overall SOS is 17. Now, games against UGA, Arkansas, Vandy, and Missouri will hurt that. But it's not out of the realm of possibility LSU finishes with a top 35 SOS. And could a 6-0 finish get the NET into the low 60 range? Maybe.
Would all of that be enough to get LSU in? I wouldn't bet on it. But if enough carnage on the bubble were to occur LSU could mess around and find themselves in a discussion. Admittedly, their margin for error is basically zero from here on out. But it's not completely out of the realm of message board discussion. At least for today.
LSU's current NET ranking is 88. They are 5-10 vs. Q1/2 opponents. They are 4-8 away from home. Needless to say, is NOT a NCAA Tournament team right now...or even close. But....
their next two opponents (UK and Miss. St.) are at the moment. The at large teams generally mocked in the 11 seed range (which is part of the play-in games) or in the conversation have NET rankings anywhere between 45-65 or so.
If (HUGE if) LSU were to somehow win out they would finish 19-12. Two of those wins would be over top 40 teams (UK and MSU). And two would be on the road (Arkansas and Vandy). Road wins are like gold to the selection committee. So while a 4-8 record away from home isn't great, 6-8 is obviously a bit better. There were teams that made the tournament last year with losing records away from home. Also of note, LSU's current overall SOS is 17. Now, games against UGA, Arkansas, Vandy, and Missouri will hurt that. But it's not out of the realm of possibility LSU finishes with a top 35 SOS. And could a 6-0 finish get the NET into the low 60 range? Maybe.
Would all of that be enough to get LSU in? I wouldn't bet on it. But if enough carnage on the bubble were to occur LSU could mess around and find themselves in a discussion. Admittedly, their margin for error is basically zero from here on out. But it's not completely out of the realm of message board discussion. At least for today.
Posted on 2/20/24 at 12:13 pm to Alt26
Yep someone said it in the game thread, if you take out that Nicholls loss and add in one of the TAMU/UGA/FL loss this team is probably a bubble team. Hell if they don't get abused by Syracuse the net would probably be 5 or so points
higher.
higher.
Posted on 2/20/24 at 12:29 pm to Choupique19
quote:No. We are well outside of the NCAA bubble. The only way to get I'm would be by winning the SEC Tourney.
House money? Are you saying we are easily inside the NCAAT bubble?
What is the goal we are trying to accomplish?
The goal right now is to finish the season strong and get as close to .500 as possible.
Posted on 2/20/24 at 12:35 pm to tarzana
I'll be there screaming and hollering for the Tigers.
Like every game for us this year- this one is no exception, rebounding will be the key to whether we win or compete or not. As we all know by now our big guys are not good rebounders so the guards will have to step up and help.
Like every game for us this year- this one is no exception, rebounding will be the key to whether we win or compete or not. As we all know by now our big guys are not good rebounders so the guards will have to step up and help.
Posted on 2/20/24 at 12:52 pm to tarzana
Typical Jekyll and Hyde Kentucky team. They’ve got a lot of very talented true freshman contributing big minutes as per usual. Hopefully we don’t get them at their best.
Posted on 2/20/24 at 1:15 pm to Pnels08
quote:
Yep someone said it in the game thread, if you take out that Nicholls loss and add in one of the TAMU/UGA/FL loss this team is probably a bubble team. Hell if they don't get abused by Syracuse the net would probably be 5 or so points
higher.
If LSU would have been able to beat UGA and Florida they would very much be in the discussion.
Currently, Joe Lundardi has Ole Miss as his "last team in". OM's NET ranking is 65. Their SOS is 61. They are 5-4 vs. the NET Q1/2. They are 5-5 away from home. Their overall record is 19-6, but it's not a terribly impressive record. Their best win is at home vs. Florida (or maybe at A&M)
That at least gives you a current snapshot of where the bubble sits. Two road wins over Florida and UGA would have been HUGE. Then again, every team on the bubble says "woulda-should-coulda" at the end of the year.
Posted on 2/20/24 at 1:29 pm to tarzana
Terrible matchup. Great shooting team and we struggle to guard the 3.
It's basketball and anything can happen. Gonna go to the PMAC and support my tigers and hope for a win.
It's basketball and anything can happen. Gonna go to the PMAC and support my tigers and hope for a win.
Posted on 2/20/24 at 2:16 pm to mcmaniacinsaneasylum
quote:
Terrible matchup. Great shooting team and we struggle to guard the 3.
The frustrating part is that teams don't necessarily shoot a very high FG% (from 3) against LSU. It's that LSU allows opponents to shoot a ton of threes which, obviously, results in a higher volume of makes...even though they are making them at a lower %.
LSU's perimeter defense is just not good. They seem to want to overplay everything in order to sell out for steals rather than just forcing contested shots. I guess maybe the reason is two-fold: (1) McMahon wants to play at a fast tempo and it's hard to do so when the opponent is using much of the shot clock on each possession (2) he's worried about his inside defense and teams driving on LSU to put the bigs in foul-trouble. A byproduct of the numerous threes is long rebounds...which LSU struggles to get.
That said, no defense is ever going to be perfect and teams are often left with allowing offenses certain advantages because the defense is making a decision to try to take away other things. Can LSU run Kentucky off the 3 point line? That may be a big key to the game.
Posted on 2/20/24 at 2:58 pm to Pnels08
quote:
I got to think this is a bad matchup for LSU, UK likes to rebound
Kentucky is not a good offensive rebounding team (where LSU tends to get beat). The key to this game is limiting Kentucky to only contested 3 pointers. Give them open looks behind the arc all night and we’ll get blown out. Guard the 3s and we win.
Of course we have to move the ball around on offense too. Can’t have the typical 10 minute stretch in the 1st half where one guy tries to take on their whole team every trip down.
Posted on 2/20/24 at 3:09 pm to LSUbasketballfan
quote:
Of course we have to move the ball around on offense too. Can’t have the typical 10 minute stretch in the 1st half where one guy tries to take on their whole team every trip down.
For all of the "streetball" references that have come up this season a general lack of ball movement has pretty much been LSU's offense this season. They are 295 in assists per made FG. Some may think they see something different because of a different HC. But the reality is a lot of LSU's scoring is coming off of one-on-one takes.
Hell, the last 3:00 of the South Carolina game was essentially just: get the ball into Wright's hands and let him try to create.
This post was edited on 2/20/24 at 3:11 pm
Posted on 2/20/24 at 4:36 pm to Zander Kelley
quote:I don’t disagree necessarily but I absolutely think they should go 4-1 in the last five games. 3-2 at worst
EVERY game will be a battle
Posted on 2/20/24 at 5:09 pm to tarzana
I will be there with five others. Kentucky is not Kentucky good this year. So we got a shot. Can’t wait for the game!
GEAUX TIGERS!
GEAUX TIGERS!
Posted on 2/21/24 at 6:31 am to Alt26
quote:
I guess maybe the reason is two-fold: (1) McMahon wants to play at a fast tempo and it's hard to do so when the opponent is using much of the shot clock on each possession (2) he's worried about his inside defense and teams driving on LSU to put the bigs in foul-trouble.
Team inevitably put Baker or Dean, but especially Baker in that high pick and roll we hard hedge on and it opens driving lanes - we rotate...sometimes and leaves a lot of open 3's, that's what I see anyway.
quote:Or any rebounds for that matter. Bama slaughtered us on the boards long and short and shot 44 threes.
A byproduct of the numerous threes is long rebounds...which LSU struggles to get.
Posted on 2/21/24 at 6:39 am to KevinD
Don't hype up this game cause that's more ammo for the tards when they lose. I am cautiously optimistic we can finish above .500 in the conference.
Posted on 2/21/24 at 8:07 am to tarzana
Posted on 2/21/24 at 8:17 am to Zander Kelley
It really doesn’t matter with the McMahon hating retards. If LSU loses they’ll say McMahon sucks. If LSU wins they’ll say KY wasn’t really that good. That’s how you know they are emotionally challenged morons.
Posted on 2/21/24 at 8:18 am to Tiger Ugly
quote:
Team inevitably put Baker or Dean, but especially Baker in that high pick and roll we hard hedge on and it opens driving lanes - we rotate...sometimes and leaves a lot of open 3's, that's what I see anyway.
Spot on, we’re put in rotation a ton because of our initial on-ball defense, whether in isolation or PnR. It’s not great. I’m surprised Mwani hasn’t carved out more of a role for this very reason.
I think Kentucky will probably roast our defense. Their combination of strong guard play, shooting, and vertical spacing is built to give us problems. But they have been trash on defense for most of SEC play. They brought great effort last game against Auburn, but that was a bigger game and it’s tough sometimes for young teams to play well 2 games in a row, especially on the road.
Think this is a high scoring one, hopefully LSU finishes instead of letting the better team pull away like when we played Alabama at home.
Posted on 2/21/24 at 1:41 pm to tarzana
It feels like they have to let themselves fall behind early so that they can make a good push at the end.
I’d love to see what they could do being the early aggressors this time around.
I’d love to see what they could do being the early aggressors this time around.
Posted on 2/21/24 at 4:57 pm to DallasTiger45
quote:
’m surprised Mwani hasn’t carved out more of a role for this very reason.
Mwani was hurt most of last season and for a good portion of this year.... I think it's taken him some time to get his rhythmn back physically.
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