re: Baker cost TB $5M

I always laugh at the theory that you win by losing in the NFL. You know, cuz you'll pick five spots higher in the draft.

An in-depth survey of Super Bowl era drafts (no, I don't have the link anymore from right before the season started) compared the statistical output of the first player drafted at a particular position with that of the second at the same position, whether it was 5 picks later, 10 picks later, whatever. Know what percentage of the time the first player chosen outperforms the guy selected sometimes a third of a round or more later?

52%. Slightly more than a coin toss. I mean, yeah, over time that 2% margin can be counted on to produce a better outcome...over like 25 or 30 drafts, since that's how such slight differences in probability play out.

(Edited for clarification.)