re: 10 yr yield going to 5%

so revisiting this thread, 10 yr reached 5% and bonds immediately began a strong rally as expected. to all who profited off that move.

now, the new year is gearing up to reverse that rally and today's jobs report looks to be the catalyst. yesterday's ADP report already showed hiring strength and today's report could also be a significant beat.

I've been in the camp that rates are staying higher for longer (contrarian to the market wishcasting rate cuts at every opportunity) and today could set the stage for the 10 yr heading back to 5%.

on the equities side, the VIX has been perking up and could indicate S&P is on the verge of a selloff to around 4400 support. if S&P ends up breaking below that level, I'd look for 2024 to continue with a bearish bias.