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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/17/24 at 4:46 am to cypher
Posted on 5/17/24 at 4:46 am to cypher
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
17 May 2024
In a surprise reshuffle the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has been replaced by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, with Shoigu replacing Nikolai Patrushev as Secretary of the Russian Security Council. Patrushev has been appointed a Presidential Aide. Shoigu and Patrushev are influential and long-term allies of Russian President Putin.
Belousov is a professional economist with no military background. He was First Deputy Prime Minister from January 2020, and prior to that served as a Presidential Aide for economic issues. It is likely that he has been appointed to ensure greater efficiency in defence spending and to ensure closer coordination between defence industries and the needs of the Armed Forces.
This is likely to prove extremely challenging for Belousov given the high degrees of corruption in the Russian MOD and Armed Forces. Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested in April 2024 on corruption charges, and the head of personnel General-Lieutenant Yury Kuznetsov was arrested on 14 May 2024 on suspicion of involvement in a bribery scheme.
The change of Defence Minister is highly unlikely to have a major immediate impact on the prosecution of the Russian war in Ukraine. With Putin also announcing that there will be no changes to senior appointments in the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces the current Russian approach to the war is likely to continue.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
17 May 2024
In a surprise reshuffle the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has been replaced by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, with Shoigu replacing Nikolai Patrushev as Secretary of the Russian Security Council. Patrushev has been appointed a Presidential Aide. Shoigu and Patrushev are influential and long-term allies of Russian President Putin.
Belousov is a professional economist with no military background. He was First Deputy Prime Minister from January 2020, and prior to that served as a Presidential Aide for economic issues. It is likely that he has been appointed to ensure greater efficiency in defence spending and to ensure closer coordination between defence industries and the needs of the Armed Forces.
This is likely to prove extremely challenging for Belousov given the high degrees of corruption in the Russian MOD and Armed Forces. Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested in April 2024 on corruption charges, and the head of personnel General-Lieutenant Yury Kuznetsov was arrested on 14 May 2024 on suspicion of involvement in a bribery scheme.
The change of Defence Minister is highly unlikely to have a major immediate impact on the prosecution of the Russian war in Ukraine. With Putin also announcing that there will be no changes to senior appointments in the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces the current Russian approach to the war is likely to continue.
2
Posted on 5/17/24 at 5:57 am to cypher
quote:
In a surprise reshuffle the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has been replaced by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov...
For a good explantion of this, why it's major news and ultimately will be good for Ukraine, check this short video:
LINK
Belousov won't last a year. Putin is nationalizing military manufacturing bases now with an eye on large profit centers - all owned currently by oilgarchs. He needs a fall guy like Belousov to take the heat. Besides, Belousov has previous experience shaking down oligarchs for 'windfall taxes' twenty years ago. Also under Putin's direction and support. But he has no experience in dealing with the military parasites or the FSB.
If you're currently a Russian oligarch and don't have a large standing private army, you are in trouble.
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