re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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People keep saying that time is on Russia's side. But I don't believe that.

If you look at it from a supply chain perspective, waging war on this scale is incredibly complex. Hundreds of thousands of moving parts. And all it takes is a handful of those to become a problem that gums up the whole works.

Russia can make lots of artillery shells. And lots of guns. And lots of guys to carry them. But what if it runs out of artillery barrels? What if it runs out of counter battery radars?

My guess is that we know -- within the defense intelligence community -- that Russia has a handful of Achilles heels that will soon come to the surface. And my guess is that information was conveyed in extremely convincing fashion to Congress a couple of months ago. Which is why you saw such a 180 on Capitol Hill.

I don't know what the choke point is. Or when it will start to bite. But my guess is we're about to find out.

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From reading several reports and estimates, I believe that we're still something like 6-9 months away from seeing any of those critical shortages in Russian equipment. But, yes, they will run out of artillery barrels, armored vehicles, etc.

It's why the aid passed by Congress is so critical -- because it should sustain Ukraine until that point when Russia starts to run out of some essential things. When people talk about a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2025 (as Jake Sullivan recently did), the only way that could possibly succeed is if Russia is indeed facing critical shortages by that time. Because a 2025 Ukrainian offensive would otherwise probably fail.