quote:
Key Takeaways:

Russian forces will likely make significant tactical gains in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for US security assistance to arrive at the front but remains unlikely to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.

Well-provisioned Ukrainian forces will likely be able to prevent operationally significant Russian advances during Russia’s expected summer offensive effort, although Russian forces will nevertheless leverage select advantages and adaptations to pose a significant threat to Ukraine this summer.

The tempo of Russian offensive operations is currently higher in the Avdiivka direction than near Chasiv Yar, as Russian forces focus on exploiting a tactical situation that is unfavorable to Ukrainian troops northwest of Avdiivka. Russian forces are likely to intensify offensive operations near Chasiv Yar in the coming weeks, however, as Chasiv Yar provides Russian forces with the opportunity for more operationally significant advances.

Russian forces conducted large-scale cruise and ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of April 26 to 27 and have likely resumed sea based Kalibr cruise missile strikes after a long pause.

Ukrainian forces successfully conducted drone strikes against a Russian airfield and oil refineries in Krasnodar Krai on the night of April 26 to 27.

The Russian federal government continues efforts to codify increased control over migrant communities living in Russia.

The Kremlin is likely setting conditions to intensify its hybrid operations against Moldova.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances north of Avdiivka and west of Donetsk City.

Russian federal subjects continue to sponsor Russian military formations.

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Posted by Lima Whiskey

Member since Apr 2013

19390 posts

Posted on 4/27/24 at 9:04 pm to StormyMcMan

quote:
The Kremlin is likely setting conditions to intensify its hybrid operations against Moldova.

I think the Russians are concerned that Romania will annex Moldova, they recently hosted a Gaugaz delegation in Moscow. The Gaugaz are Orthodox Christian Turkic Bulgars, and a minority group in Moldova. They've talked about going their own way off and on since the Soviet Union was dissolved, and their governor Evgenia Gutul has threatened secession if Moldova is annexed.

The Romanians and the Moldovans are really the same people though, so putting aside the cost of the process, whatever that might be, it makes a lot of sense. Transnistria is a serious problem though, because then you've got a NATO state, with a separatist region, that's policed by Russian soldiers.

For their part the Romanians recently proposed a new law.

quote:
Draft law empowering Romanian military intervention abroad to protect its citizens is seen as primarily concerning Moldova, where at least a million people have Romanian citizenship.

quote:
According to the draft bill, the new law would allow Romania to intervene outside the country. Such actions are not limited to the military but may also involve other types of interventions to counter hybrid threats.

Such interventions can be initiated on the recommendation of the Romanian President and with the approval of the Supreme National Defence Council, CSAT.

The draft law states: “The President of Romania can order, at the proposal of the Prime Minister, necessary measures to protect Romanian citizens who are in danger outside the national territory.”

LINK /

The Moldovan government includes a number of dual nationals, and the PM recently said this when discussing the upcoming census.

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I am Romanian and I speak Romanian", this is how the Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova, Dorin Recean, will respond to the census taking place in the Republic of Moldova.

One of their census questions is how you identify, there's been an increasing push to bring the two countries together, at least at the state level. The elites see it as more pressing than the average person, but it's not unpopular.

LINK

For their part, Kiev recently fired their ambassador to Moldova, and sent Oleksiy Danilov to replace him. He's was the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine under Zelensky, but his background is in organized crime. He's a nasty dangerous person.

Then you have NATO's increasing presence in Moldova.

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