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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 5/17/24 at 4:40 am to
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2621 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 4:40 am to
Over 100 Drone Attacks Overnight: Kremlin Reports Kyiv Targeting Krasnodar Oil Refinery and Port

Ukrainian officials haven't officially commented on this attack on Krasnodar Krai and Crimea yet. However, Kyiv Post special services sources said the information and details are now being verified.
by Julia Struck, Kateryna Zakharchenko | May 17, 2024, 10:26 am

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced a massive overnight drone attack on Russian regions, during which “more than 100 Ukrainian drones” were allegedly intercepted in the south of the country, over occupied Crimea, and the Black Sea.

According to a statement from the Russian ministry, 51 drones were destroyed over occupied Crimea, 44 over the Krasnodar region, six over the Belgorod region, six over the Black Sea, and one over the Kursk region.

In the Russian city of Tuapse, located in the Krasnodar Krai (Territory), a fire broke out at a local oil refineryignited by a Ukrainian drone attack, as reported by the local operational headquarters and Russian media.

The port and two oil depots in Novorossiysk were reportedly hit

In Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, there were also explosions after possible drone attacks. The Russian media outlet “Astra” first reported explosions in the city, and the local port might have been impacted.

Later Astra, citing its sources, reported that in Novorossiysk, UAVs targeted at least two oil depots and two petroleum terminals. Specifically, the Novorossiysk fuel oil terminal and the Importpischeprom terminal suffered damage, with drones striking two fuel tanks, per Astra reports.

Furthermore, the attack extended to the Gazprom oil depot in the village of Kirilovka and the Grushovaya Balka oil depot of Transneft, according to Astra. There were no casualties reported.

The Ukrainian side has not yet officially commented on the mass drone attack on Russian regions. However, sources within the special services told Kyiv Post that the information is now being verified.

The Kyiv Post
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2621 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 4:46 am to
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
17 May 2024

In a surprise reshuffle the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has been replaced by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, with Shoigu replacing Nikolai Patrushev as Secretary of the Russian Security Council. Patrushev has been appointed a Presidential Aide. Shoigu and Patrushev are influential and long-term allies of Russian President Putin.

Belousov is a professional economist with no military background. He was First Deputy Prime Minister from January 2020, and prior to that served as a Presidential Aide for economic issues. It is likely that he has been appointed to ensure greater efficiency in defence spending and to ensure closer coordination between defence industries and the needs of the Armed Forces.

This is likely to prove extremely challenging for Belousov given the high degrees of corruption in the Russian MOD and Armed Forces. Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested in April 2024 on corruption charges, and the head of personnel General-Lieutenant Yury Kuznetsov was arrested on 14 May 2024 on suspicion of involvement in a bribery scheme.

The change of Defence Minister is highly unlikely to have a major immediate impact on the prosecution of the Russian war in Ukraine. With Putin also announcing that there will be no changes to senior appointments in the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces the current Russian approach to the war is likely to continue.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
124273 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 4:50 am to
quote:

If Reagan, a Bush or Trump is president Putin doesn’t invade Ukraine in 2014.
... because if Reagan or Trump is president, we don't push the Ukraine to NATO dialogue, nor do we overthrow a duly elected Ukrainian government. Iif Reagan or Trump is president, Putin doesn’t invade Ukraine in 2014, because he'd have no reason to.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2621 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 5:14 am to
Rob Lee
@RALee85
Videos showing a Ukrainian UAV attack on Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai.

LINK
Posted by Coeur du Tigre
It was just outside of Barstow...
Member since Nov 2008
1506 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 5:57 am to
quote:

In a surprise reshuffle the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has been replaced by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov...

For a good explantion of this, why it's major news and ultimately will be good for Ukraine, check this short video:

LINK

Belousov won't last a year. Putin is nationalizing military manufacturing bases now with an eye on large profit centers - all owned currently by oilgarchs. He needs a fall guy like Belousov to take the heat. Besides, Belousov has previous experience shaking down oligarchs for 'windfall taxes' twenty years ago. Also under Putin's direction and support. But he has no experience in dealing with the military parasites or the FSB.

If you're currently a Russian oligarch and don't have a large standing private army, you are in trouble.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9681 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 6:14 am to
quote:

we don't push the Ukraine to NATO dialogue, nor do we overthrow a duly elected Ukrainian government. Iif Reagan or Trump is president, Putin doesn’t invade Ukraine in 2014, because he'd have no reason to.


Things never promised or never happened
Posted by MoarKilometers
Member since Apr 2015
18119 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 6:27 am to
quote:

Up double digit percentages since I last posted here.

Yet still down huge from when you said it was going to moon and there would be a shortage announced in mere weeks.



quote:

Really going to try to own me on that?

Not only did I try, I'd call it a
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 6:29 am
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
3747 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 6:33 am to
quote:

have fun pretending to be a morally superior person while demanding tens of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians die for you to beat off on your LARP. Not to mention being fine with the possibility of a nuclear bomb going off. It was all worth it for your sociopathy.


Says the person who is

quote:

pretending to be a morally superior person


No one here is demanding anyone fight. But you keep demanding Ukraine should just accept a complete surrender and have failed after numerous posts to even show a peace plan that Russia was willing to sign off on that wasn't a complete Ukraine surrender. And then turn around and bitch about how Ukraine is the only party that won't negotiate and its all their fault. But sure sure it's I'm demanding those people go die....and you call me a LARPer
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 6:45 am
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
2621 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 7:02 am to
video has english subtitles

Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en

"It's been over 80 drones. They're flying in a row. It's really crazy!"

Footage of a drone attack on Novorossiysk and Tuapse in Russia's Krasnodar region last night.

The commentary of witnesses is curious.

LINK

Dmitri has better translations

LINK Dmitri videos
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 7:10 am
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36289 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 7:16 am to
quote:

14, because he'd have no reason to.


So why did Putin invade Chechnya? Georgia?

Why did Ukraine want in the EU? Why do nations want in NATO? Not to attack Russia, but to have allies agsinst a Russian attack.

By your logic NATO is the bad guy. Russia the victim. Sorry, common sense tells me Russia is the aggressor and the prime cause of this war and several others.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
124273 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 7:24 am to
quote:

Things never promised or never happened
OFFS, you're certainly welcome to your own opinion, but not substitution of fiction for fact. Sorry. Fairytales are best reserved for children or adults with an intellectual disability.
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 7:25 am
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9681 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 7:49 am to
quote:

OFFS, you're certainly welcome to your own opinion, but not substitution of fiction for fact.


Your lord and savior

LINK
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
2248 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 7:57 am to
quote:

Why do nations want in NATO? Not to attack Russia, but to have allies agsinst a Russian attack.


What is the downside to NATO membership for these countries?

A lot of them are spending nearly 2% GDP on defense anyway (and once they are in NATO its not exactly overly enforced if they don't hit 2%). Why not get the strongest militaries in the world to subsidize your defense?

ETA: I ask this because there definitely is downside for the US. We do most of the heavy lifting in NATO. We are tactically isolated geographically. Even the UK and France, who could defend themselves against most armies in the world rather easily, benefit from the strength in numbers aspect with actual neighbor countries being in a defense pact.
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 8:02 am
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
109366 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:02 am to
quote:

But you keep demanding Ukraine should just accept a complete surrender and have failed after numerous posts to even show a peace plan that Russia was willing to sign off on that wasn't a complete Ukraine surrender.


They’re not going to win, dude. Without American boots on the ground, they cannot win this war. It’s going to happen sooner or later, the only question is how many more Ukrainians and Russians have to die before the inevitable?
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
124273 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:11 am to
quote:

So why did Putin invade Georgia?
According to the independent EU mission assessment as requested by Georgia? You know the answer to that.

The question in any instance of belligerence relates to rationale and/or justification. As in the instance of the Georgia conflict, that is a question around which reasonable people can differ, whereas denying known foundational facts forming basis of justification is not.
quote:

By your logic NATO is the bad guy. Russia the victim.
By my logic NATO is a stupid, needlessly reckless guy provoking an instinctively paranoid Russia. I see Ukraine as the victim.
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
10535 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:12 am to
quote:

before the inevitable?


What, specifically, is the inevitable?

The fall of Kiev? Odessa? Total surrender? Four oblasts? What does a Ukraine defeat look like? What does a Russian victory look like?

Russia clearly tried to take the whole country in February of 22. When that failed, the objective of the whole invasion became murky.

But since you seem to know, tell us.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
124273 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:16 am to
quote:

Your lord and savior
Goodness, you really are intellectually immature.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9681 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:32 am to
quote:

Tuapse


The refinery has been expanded since 2010 from 85,000 BPD to 240,000 BPD which included a hydrocracker and a FlexiCoker (Exxon technology), The Flexicoker is a fluid bed type process which doesn't produce petroleum coke, instead the coke is used as fuel/gasified to produce more light gases/liquids instead of the profit center of petroleum coke.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
9681 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:35 am to
quote:

Goodness, you really are intellectually immature.


Not at all. I'm not an ignorant dumbass to buy the far leftist/Kremlin propaganda that the CIA overthrew a government or that Eastern European nations seeking and then joining NATO was any threat to Russia.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36289 posts
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:40 am to
quote:

By my logic NATO is a stupid, needlessly reckless guy


NATO has been highly successful if you review European history prior to NATO and post NATO.

NATO has defended NATO from Communism. NATO has stopped Western Europeans from fighting each other. NATO had brought stability to Europe. NATO isn’t perfect, NATO had made mistakes, but the success of NATO is apparent. Just look at the number of countries that have wanted in under their defensive umbrella.

Your opinion of NATO is seriously flawed, it isn’t perfect by any means, but it’s proven to be a great alliance and its viability csn be seen by the recent actions of Sweden and Finland as well as Ukraine.
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 9:02 am
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