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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/9/24 at 7:41 am to Auburn1968
Posted on 5/9/24 at 7:41 am to Auburn1968
quote:
In Russia artillery is the king, but in American arms air power is far more important. That's a big problem with American advisors when Ukraine doesn't have air superiority.
A flock of F16's is needed to make NATO tactics work.
Totally.
And, whoever it was that said "Russia would mop the floor with a NATO Army" or whatever it was because "they have real battlefield experience, now" obviously was thinking NATO would just tie their own hands behind their backs and fight trench warfare, for some reason? Russia can't gain air superiority over Ukraine, who still have just a handful of older Russian jets...
2
Posted on 5/9/24 at 9:49 am to Lee B
Zelenskyy signs law on extension of martial law and mobilisation
STANISLAV POHORILOV — Thursday, 9 May 2024, 17:07
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed laws to extend the period of martial law in Ukraine, as well as to extend the period of general mobilisation.
Source: decrees Nos 3685-?Kh, 3684-?Kh
Details: This is the eleventh extension of martial law and mobilisation since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion.
Background:
On 6 May, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted bills to approve decrees on the extension of martial law and the duration of general mobilisation to the Verkhovna Rada.
On 8 May, the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) approved the presidential decrees extending martial law and general mobilisation until 11 August 2024.
LINK
STANISLAV POHORILOV — Thursday, 9 May 2024, 17:07
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed laws to extend the period of martial law in Ukraine, as well as to extend the period of general mobilisation.
Source: decrees Nos 3685-?Kh, 3684-?Kh
Details: This is the eleventh extension of martial law and mobilisation since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion.
Background:
On 6 May, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy submitted bills to approve decrees on the extension of martial law and the duration of general mobilisation to the Verkhovna Rada.
On 8 May, the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament) approved the presidential decrees extending martial law and general mobilisation until 11 August 2024.
LINK
Posted on 5/9/24 at 10:02 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Drones attacked the oil refining enterprise "Salavatnaftoorgsintez" in bashkiria, - russian mass media.
Gazprom refinery 120,000 BPD with modernization including new units completed in 2012.
I will note that the last 2 decades have seen a lot of modernization and expansion using 100% western technology no longer supported.
FTR, another friend reported that some process equipment had been manufactured before 2022 in Russia for Europe (his company) but the problem was there were ZERO decent welders who could lay off the sauce he could find in Russia. The Uganda, or worse, equivalent labor rates were the only reason to open a shop there in the first place. Quality would have been better in Uganda.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 10:17 am to cypher
quote:
Details: The drone collided with a fluid catalytic cracking unit.
That is the major part of the expansion which took place from 2004 to 2012 which is a phucking long arse time to build one.
It is a 120,000 BPD, medium size there, on the small size for the USA.
This post was edited on 5/9/24 at 10:18 am
Posted on 5/9/24 at 11:43 am to cypher
Has the election been canceled yet?
Posted on 5/9/24 at 1:12 pm to Lee B
quote:
Russia is relying on vast Soviet-era stores of vehicles and other equipment to sustain operations and losses in Ukraine at a level far higher than the current Russian DIB could support
People keep saying that time is on Russia's side. But I don't believe that.
If you look at it from a supply chain perspective, waging war on this scale is incredibly complex. Hundreds of thousands of moving parts. And all it takes is a handful of those to become a problem that gums up the whole works.
Russia can make lots of artillery shells. And lots of guns. And lots of guys to carry them. But what if it runs out of artillery barrels? What if it runs out of counter battery radars?
My guess is that we know -- within the defense intelligence community -- that Russia has a handful of Achilles heels that will soon come to the surface. And my guess is that information was conveyed in extremely convincing fashion to Congress a couple of months ago. Which is why you saw such a 180 on Capitol Hill.
I don't know what the choke point is. Or when it will start to bite. But my guess is we're about to find out.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 1:22 pm to Lee B
Some of Ukrainian pilots completing training on F-16 - Air Force
https://ukranews.com/en/news/1004845-some-of-ukrainian-pilots-completing-training-on-f-16-air-force
quote:
Some Ukrainian pilots are already completing training on F-16 aircraft. When the fighter jets arrive in Ukraine, the pilots will be ready for missions.
This was announced by the spokesman of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Illia Yevlash, on the air of the telethon.
"Preparation is relentless, this process continues at various levels. We already have pilots who are completing their training on the F-16. As soon as it becomes possible, the F-16 will arrive in Ukraine, of course, these pilots will already be ready to perform combat missions in airspace in the Ukrainian sky," he said.
https://ukranews.com/en/news/1004845-some-of-ukrainian-pilots-completing-training-on-f-16-air-force
Posted on 5/9/24 at 1:33 pm to No Colors
I do wonder if North Korea will send Howitzers (getting them replaced through the backdoor from China) or if Iran is sending them with Shahed drones (with Iraq's Shi'ite majority now in control and in league with Iran they probably don't need them on their western front anymore)...
I also hope there's nobody left in Russia who knows how to build nukes... because we don't need a nuclear Iran
I also hope there's nobody left in Russia who knows how to build nukes... because we don't need a nuclear Iran
This post was edited on 5/9/24 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 5/9/24 at 1:44 pm to No Colors
quote:
People keep saying that time is on Russia's side. But I don't believe that.
The realistic outlook is that we don't know who is on a shorter timeline.
Neither side can go on forever. I maintain that both sides are puffing up their chests before ultimately going to the table sometime before November. I really hope a peace deal is achieved and that Ukraine gets a good deal.
Relying on outside help isn't sustainable, especially during shaky economic conditions when sending aid to another country can go from "controversial" to "overwhelmingly unpopular" pretty quickly if things deteriorate.
We know Russia is pulling a not-insignificant amount of their more expensive stuff like vehicles out of storage rather than getting new stuff from the factory. We know their manufacturing capacity even on smaller equipment isn't great, but on some things its actually quite impressive.
You read one source and Ukraine is running out of men, you read another and they can call up millions more if they want. You see videos of Ukrainians happily taking Russian abandoned equipment, then you see another of someone forcibly conscripted and being dragged into a van. We are more than "shot in the dark" level informed, but because of propaganda from boht sides its not much more.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 1:59 pm to VolSquatch
There will be no "peace deal," Russia has made that clear... they want total capitulation, and Ukraine will not agree to that...
I don't see how you guys type this over and over and over and over again...
I don't see how you guys type this over and over and over and over again...
Posted on 5/9/24 at 2:01 pm to No Colors
You raise some interesting points but let me cut to this.
We already know from satellite imagery, which anyone can purchase, that they have at most 2.5 more years of boneyard old equipment which gets a new coat of paint and some bearings greased up. It has been in outdoor storage (not in a dry desert like our Sierra Depot) which does deteriorate steel. Gun tubes have already been removed from some fo that to replace what is already in the fight and worn out.
The real juicy part is that Russia still uses crates without even pallets. Everything is hand loaded onto rail cars, then hand offloaded to far behind the lines supply dumps than hand loaded onto trucks (which Russia is short on already and not even good ones) to get to smaller storage depots near the front. That is a lot of extra manpower needed and extra handling. Shortcomings in reliability of mechanical equipment is nothing new for Russia. It's "vaunted" T-34 tank needed complete overhaul after 125 miles even if not in the rigors of combat maneuver
quote:
Russia can make lots of artillery shells. And lots of guns. And lots of guys to carry them. But what if it runs out of artillery barrels? What if it runs out of counter battery radars?
We already know from satellite imagery, which anyone can purchase, that they have at most 2.5 more years of boneyard old equipment which gets a new coat of paint and some bearings greased up. It has been in outdoor storage (not in a dry desert like our Sierra Depot) which does deteriorate steel. Gun tubes have already been removed from some fo that to replace what is already in the fight and worn out.
The real juicy part is that Russia still uses crates without even pallets. Everything is hand loaded onto rail cars, then hand offloaded to far behind the lines supply dumps than hand loaded onto trucks (which Russia is short on already and not even good ones) to get to smaller storage depots near the front. That is a lot of extra manpower needed and extra handling. Shortcomings in reliability of mechanical equipment is nothing new for Russia. It's "vaunted" T-34 tank needed complete overhaul after 125 miles even if not in the rigors of combat maneuver
Posted on 5/9/24 at 2:20 pm to Lee B
quote:
There will be no "peace deal,
Ban bet?
I don't think Russia will completely annihilate Ukraine, and they aren't just going to drop tools and go home if they start losing either. There will be a deal of some form struck eventually.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 2:21 pm to No Colors
quote:
People keep saying that time is on Russia's side. But I don't believe that.
If you look at it from a supply chain perspective, waging war on this scale is incredibly complex. Hundreds of thousands of moving parts. And all it takes is a handful of those to become a problem that gums up the whole works.
Russia can make lots of artillery shells. And lots of guns. And lots of guys to carry them. But what if it runs out of artillery barrels? What if it runs out of counter battery radars?
My guess is that we know -- within the defense intelligence community -- that Russia has a handful of Achilles heels that will soon come to the surface. And my guess is that information was conveyed in extremely convincing fashion to Congress a couple of months ago. Which is why you saw such a 180 on Capitol Hill.
I don't know what the choke point is. Or when it will start to bite. But my guess is we're about to find out.
From reading several reports and estimates, I believe that we're still something like 6-9 months away from seeing any of those critical shortages in Russian equipment. But, yes, they will run out of artillery barrels, armored vehicles, etc.
It's why the aid passed by Congress is so critical -- because it should sustain Ukraine until that point when Russia starts to run out of some essential things. When people talk about a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2025 (as Jake Sullivan recently did), the only way that could possibly succeed is if Russia is indeed facing critical shortages by that time. Because a 2025 Ukrainian offensive would otherwise probably fail.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 2:29 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
There will be a deal of some form struck eventually.
All wars end with a peace deal of some sort. The question of who's terms is still in the air.
The one thing anyone with any sense knows for sure: A "peace deal" that gives Russia 20% of Ukraine would be just another chapter in a 10+ year war. It wouldn't be stable. It wouldn't last. It wouldn't solve anything. And neither side would honor it.
It would just be a pause in the kinetic fighting to let both sides reorganize for the next chapter.
Russia has to find a way to totally defeat Ukraine (which looks entirely unlikely) or Russia has to be convinced to pack up and go home. And we're a long way from either of those two things happening I'm afraid.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 2:40 pm to No Colors
Sputnik war progress daily map claims Russia kicked butt in the last 24 hours. A bunch of power delivery hits.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 2:41 pm to No Colors
quote:
Russia has to find a way to totally defeat Ukraine (which looks entirely unlikely) or Russia has to be convinced to pack up and go home. And we're a long way from either of those two things happening I'm afraid.
I think Russia would be happy to fortify positions, sit on their hands, and just let Ukraine launch offensives until they can't anymore before they ever let themselves reach a point where they just couldn't manage the war effort logistically anymore. If the 2.5 years of equipment number is true, thats a lot of time to adjust strategy, consumption, and potentially manufacturing to accommodate a longer term plan. To me the winds just don't seem to be blowing in that direction though. If a peace can be achieved Biden will be motivated to do it before November... if Trump wins he will be motivated to achieve it during his term.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 3:08 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
quote:
There will be no "peace deal,
Ban bet?
I don't think Russia will completely annihilate Ukraine, and they aren't just going to drop tools and go home if they start losing either. There will be a deal of some form struck eventually.
Russia has to stick to the deal... like the ceasefires they agreed to and never stuck to...
Posted on 5/9/24 at 3:28 pm to Lee B
So no on the bet?
Figured as much.
Figured as much.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 3:40 pm to VolSquatch
The bet is contingent on Russia sticking to the deal if they make one...
Posted on 5/9/24 at 3:50 pm to VolSquatch
Pentagon blocks access to Starlink for Russians in Ukraine
Oleh Pavliuk, Tetyana Oliynyk — Thursday, 9 May 2024, 21:56
The Pentagon states that it has prevented the Russian military from using unauthorised Starlink internet terminals, operated by Elon Musk's SpaceX, on the battlefield in the war with Ukraine.
Source: John Plumb, Assistant Secretary of Defence for Space Policy, in an interview with Bloomberg, European Pravda reports
Details: Plumb said the US has been "heavily involved in working with the government of Ukraine and SpaceX to counter Russian illicit use of Starlink terminals".
Quote: "At this time we have successfully countered Russian use, but I am certain Russia will continue to try and find ways to exploit Starlink and other commercial communications systems," he added.
The Pentagon official declined to specify what tactics, methods or procedures are being used to stop Russia from using Starlink terminals. He did, however, assure that these were "good solutions" found together with Starlink and Ukraine.
LINK
Oleh Pavliuk, Tetyana Oliynyk — Thursday, 9 May 2024, 21:56
The Pentagon states that it has prevented the Russian military from using unauthorised Starlink internet terminals, operated by Elon Musk's SpaceX, on the battlefield in the war with Ukraine.
Source: John Plumb, Assistant Secretary of Defence for Space Policy, in an interview with Bloomberg, European Pravda reports
Details: Plumb said the US has been "heavily involved in working with the government of Ukraine and SpaceX to counter Russian illicit use of Starlink terminals".
Quote: "At this time we have successfully countered Russian use, but I am certain Russia will continue to try and find ways to exploit Starlink and other commercial communications systems," he added.
The Pentagon official declined to specify what tactics, methods or procedures are being used to stop Russia from using Starlink terminals. He did, however, assure that these were "good solutions" found together with Starlink and Ukraine.
LINK
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