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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/8/24 at 7:05 am to Chromdome35
Posted on 5/8/24 at 7:05 am to Chromdome35
Air Force: Ukraine downs 39 missiles, 20 drones overnight
by Kateryna Hodunova May 8, 2024 9:50 AM
Ukrainian forces downed 39 of 55 missiles and 20 of 21 drones launched by Russian troops overnight on May 8, Air Force commander Mykola Oleshchuk said.
Russia carried out a large-scale attack against Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, and Vinnytsia oblasts, mainly targeting energy infrastructure. Three thermal power plants were damaged, according to Ukraine’s largest private energy company DTEK.
The recent strikes also injured an 8-year-old child in Kirovohrad Oblast, as well as a 62-year-old woman and a 34-year-old man in Kyiv Oblast.
Ukrainian anti-aircraft and electronic warfare units, mobile fire groups, and fighter jets were involved in the combat mission, according to the Air Force's report.
Ukraine intercepted 33 Kh-101/Kh-505 cruise missiles, four Kalibr cruise missiles, two Kh-59/Kh-69 guided missiles, and 20 Shahed-type drones.
Oleshchuk said that Russia also used a Kinzhal hypersonic missile, two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and an Iskander-K cruise missile. Ukrainian forces did not down these missiles, as well as 12 Kh-101/Kh-505 cruise missiles and one Shahed-type drone.
The Kyiv Independent
by Kateryna Hodunova May 8, 2024 9:50 AM
Ukrainian forces downed 39 of 55 missiles and 20 of 21 drones launched by Russian troops overnight on May 8, Air Force commander Mykola Oleshchuk said.
Russia carried out a large-scale attack against Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, and Vinnytsia oblasts, mainly targeting energy infrastructure. Three thermal power plants were damaged, according to Ukraine’s largest private energy company DTEK.
The recent strikes also injured an 8-year-old child in Kirovohrad Oblast, as well as a 62-year-old woman and a 34-year-old man in Kyiv Oblast.
Ukrainian anti-aircraft and electronic warfare units, mobile fire groups, and fighter jets were involved in the combat mission, according to the Air Force's report.
Ukraine intercepted 33 Kh-101/Kh-505 cruise missiles, four Kalibr cruise missiles, two Kh-59/Kh-69 guided missiles, and 20 Shahed-type drones.
Oleshchuk said that Russia also used a Kinzhal hypersonic missile, two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and an Iskander-K cruise missile. Ukrainian forces did not down these missiles, as well as 12 Kh-101/Kh-505 cruise missiles and one Shahed-type drone.
The Kyiv Independent
1
Posted on 5/8/24 at 7:09 am to cypher
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 08 May 2024
The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) Long Range Aviation Command (LRA) has increased the lethality of its premier Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) by operationally fielding the AS-23 KODIAK fitted with a second warhead.
The LRA Command has sought to modify its systems and tactics throughout the conflict to: increase survivability as too many missiles were being intercepted by Ukrainian air defence systems; enhance capabilities to have greater effect; and use up older missiles as the VKS had depleted more modern systems in the early days of the conflict.
This latest modification has likely reduced the range of the AS-23 by half. The LRA does not need the full range to hit all of Ukraine. The second warhead is designed for increased fragmentation at the target. It is likely that this will make the system more effective in striking non-hardened targets.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 08 May 2024
The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) Long Range Aviation Command (LRA) has increased the lethality of its premier Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) by operationally fielding the AS-23 KODIAK fitted with a second warhead.
The LRA Command has sought to modify its systems and tactics throughout the conflict to: increase survivability as too many missiles were being intercepted by Ukrainian air defence systems; enhance capabilities to have greater effect; and use up older missiles as the VKS had depleted more modern systems in the early days of the conflict.
This latest modification has likely reduced the range of the AS-23 by half. The LRA does not need the full range to hit all of Ukraine. The second warhead is designed for increased fragmentation at the target. It is likely that this will make the system more effective in striking non-hardened targets.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 9:09 am to cypher
I failed to mention about my convo is the guy spend significant time in the USSR near the end and vetted lots of scientists and engineers for major companies, banks and government as to their roles in the Soviet space program when it collapsed. He is involved with a company using tech developed by former USSR space design bureau lead physicist. They wouldn't accept investors with connections to Russia due KGB/Russian mafia
A huge problem in Russia and to some extent in Ukraine is the DGAF attitude of the skilled labor. Though still practiced in Russia they were used to being on the payroll with a job but weren't paid for sometimes a month at a time. That is why decent skilled labor today comes from outside of Russia or from the "stans" formerly part of the USSR where there aren't many decent jobs.
A huge problem in Russia and to some extent in Ukraine is the DGAF attitude of the skilled labor. Though still practiced in Russia they were used to being on the payroll with a job but weren't paid for sometimes a month at a time. That is why decent skilled labor today comes from outside of Russia or from the "stans" formerly part of the USSR where there aren't many decent jobs.
This post was edited on 5/8/24 at 9:12 am
Posted on 5/8/24 at 12:17 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Artillery is the king of the battlefield—always has been and always will be. The war in Ukraine has shown us that in a wide-scale war, The US does not have enough artillery ammo. The consumption rates are huge, and we would run out of it fairly quickly.
This is true for all war stocks, not just artillery. Our defense industrial base could not currently support our country in a long conventional war.
I realize that...
But who is going to lure us into a long conventional war at this point? And where will it be fought?
Posted on 5/8/24 at 1:38 pm to CitizenK
quote:
I think that you were referring to Switchblade drones. These are short range frontline drones.
If he was referring to Switchblades, then he is wrong about them being a huge disappointment. They've absolutely proven their worth in Ukraine. It was one of the first one way fov drones used and now they're absolutely everywhere in Ukraine.
And the Pentagon just announced they were buying up a whole lot more just a couple days ago. As well as pouring money into naval surface drones and counter drone stuff. All this is being done through the Replicator program.
Breaking Defense
quote:
“The first tranche of Replicator capabilities include uncrewed surface vehicles (USV), uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and counter-uncrewed aerial systems (c-UAS) of various sizes and payloads from several traditional and non-traditional vendors,” the department wrote in a press release.
quote:
the Army’s Switchblade-600 loitering munition bid was greenlit for this first batch after it “already demonstrated … [its] utility in Ukraine, and this system will provide additional capability to US forces,” the Pentagon added.
quote:
the department secured approximately $500 million in fiscal 2024 funding, and requested an equal amount in funding for FY25.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 1:44 pm to doubleb
quote:
Don’t forget, NATO was also formed to protect W Europe from each other.
Yeah, we talked about that (probably a few hundred pages back at this pace)...
Bless the Long Peace.
It was a brilliant response to the hard lesson we learned in WWII, which we didn't learn from WWI.
I'm probably repeating what we said already...
But Stalingrad... showed us something...
The Germans were vicious and efficient but very much in the traditional European military mindset. We understood how they thought, how they reacted... and how to potentially demoralize them, which is a big key to winning a war.
The Italians... had deluded themselves. They convinced themselves they were still the Romans... forgetting that for almost 1000 years they'd been fat and lazy and hired other people to fight their wars for them. They didn't last long.
But the Japanese were scaring the shite out of us... their culture, religion and military approach was so different. Our Western inclination towards individualism made their inclination towards collectivism frightening.
And at Stalingrad, it finally dawned on us on a deep level that Communist Russia was more like a giant Japan in that mindset. And we said "Oh shite!!!"
And immediately the US decision-makers were split into 2 camps:
The Patton mindset that "once we've put the Russians and Japanese away we should immediately go after the Russians, which will be long and awful and costly but the longer we wait the worse it will be..."
And the other side, that devised the Breton Woods system and NATO and Globalism...
The countries of Europe came to Breton Woods expecting to be told "we own you, now!" or "Congratulations, those of you on the west are now American States, the east belongs to Russia," since that had been how the aftermath of wars had worked previously for the most part... well, except for the British, who somehow thought we were going to say "We're rightfully giving you all to the UK because they are the undisputed Masters of the Universe..." and they never quite got over the fact that we didn't do that...
When we told them "Here's how we're rebuilding your sovereign nations..." they were all like "WHAT!?! YOU'RE frickING KIDDING ME!!! ALRIGHT!!!"
The Russians got up and walked out, and forced the countries of Eastern Europe to adopt Communist governments.
But yes, if all those countries are sharing a security apparatus, essentially, then there's no more territorial fights on security concerns... there's no need to fight over land - in Europe or beyond - for resources when you're all able to buy things from each other and shipping is protected around the world by the US Navy.
And what we were actually doing was getting Western Europe to be human shields standing in the way of the U.S.S.R. and the US.
And if the US nuclear umbrella covers you, along with the UK and France, there's no reason to have your own nukes.
The last part is the only thing that really worries me if all this breaks down. Even with NATO intact Poland now wants Nukes... Poland is "cool" at the moment... but they have hotheaded tendencies... especially with Russia/Belarus... and that's a short travel time...
Posted on 5/8/24 at 3:45 pm to CitizenK
quote:
I failed to mention about my convo
You failed to mention something in the 4 posts you've made about it?
Posted on 5/8/24 at 8:04 pm to VolSquatch
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian forces conducted large-scale missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of May 7 to 8, continuing to exploit Ukraine's degraded air defense umbrella ahead of the arrival of US and Western security assistance at scale.
Recent satellite imagery of depleted Russian military vehicle and weapons storage facilities further indicates that Russia is currently sustaining its war effort largely by pulling from storage rather than by manufacturing new vehicles and certain weapons at scale.
Russia is relying on vast Soviet-era stores of vehicles and other equipment to sustain operations and losses in Ukraine at a level far higher than the current Russian DIB could support, nor will Russia be able to mobilize its DIB to replenish these stores for many years.
The Georgian State Security Service (SUS) is employing standard Kremlin information operations against Georgians protesting Georgia's Russian-style "foreign agents" bill following the lead of Georgian Dream party founder and former Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili.
Armenia's efforts to distance itself from Russia are increasingly forcing the Kremlin to acknowledge issues in the bilateral relationship.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonyte stated that the Lithuanian government has granted permission for Lithuania to send troops to Ukraine for training missions in the future.
Reports indicate that there is an available open-source tool that allows people to search by specific coordinates for Telegram users who have enabled a certain location-sharing setting.
Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, Kreminna, and Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu continues to highlight Russian formations involved in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 8:26 pm to CitizenK
Anything worth discussing happen in here lately or is it still rehashing the same old arguments?
Posted on 5/8/24 at 8:51 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Anything worth discussing happen in here lately or is it still rehashing the same old arguments?
Never Trumpers are coming back to the GOP for Nov after seeing how Biden has phucked up Ukraine and Israel by not providing timely support.
This post was edited on 5/8/24 at 8:54 pm
Posted on 5/8/24 at 10:25 pm to StormyMcMan
Thank you for these posts.
This is notable.
quote:
Recent satellite imagery of depleted Russian military vehicle and weapons storage facilities further indicates that Russia is currently sustaining its war effort largely by pulling from storage rather than by manufacturing new vehicles and certain weapons at scale.
Russia is relying on vast Soviet-era stores of vehicles and other equipment to sustain operations and losses in Ukraine at a level far higher than the current Russian DIB could support, nor will Russia be able to mobilize its DIB to replenish these stores for many years.
This is notable.
Posted on 5/8/24 at 10:26 pm to CitizenK
OSINTtechnical
@Osinttechnical
Earlier tonight, Ukrainian forces successfully hit a Russian railside fuel depot in Yurovka, Krasnodar Krai, setting the facility ablaze.
@Osinttechnical
Earlier tonight, Ukrainian forces successfully hit a Russian railside fuel depot in Yurovka, Krasnodar Krai, setting the facility ablaze.
This post was edited on 5/8/24 at 10:34 pm
Posted on 5/9/24 at 12:02 am to Lee B
quote:
quote:
Artillery is the king of the battlefield—always has been and always will be. The war in Ukraine has shown us that in a wide-scale war, The US does not have enough artillery ammo. The consumption rates are huge, and we would run out of it fairly quickly.
This is true for all war stocks, not just artillery. Our defense industrial base could not currently support our country in a long conventional war.
I realize that...
But who is going to lure us into a long conventional war at this point? And where will it be fought?
In Russia artillery is the king, but in American arms air power is far more important. That's a big problem with American advisors when Ukraine doesn't have air superiority.
A flock of F16's is needed to make NATO tactics work.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 12:06 am to IAmNERD
quote:
If he was referring to Switchblades, then he is wrong about them being a huge disappointment.
The Switchblades' big problem is not their design or effectiveness, it is their cost. At $60k for an anti personnel version and more for the anti-armor version, that is the problem.
Ukraine is effectively using $500 to a few thousand dollar drones to do the same thing. Strap an RPG 7 head onto a $500 drone and it kills a main battle tank after flying into it from behind where the turret meets the body.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 2:56 am to StormyMcMan
quote:If Lithuania follows through and send troops 'for training', it would be a significant development and could encourage other countries to do the same. And of course, they would bring their equipment and weapons with them.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonyte stated that the Lithuanian government has granted permission for Lithuania to send troops to Ukraine for training missions in the future.
We're looking at you Poland.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 6:12 am to Coeur du Tigre
Random tweets
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quote:
Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Colonel Serhii Lupanchuk from the post of commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The corresponding decree is published on the website of the head of state.
The President signed a decree on the appointment of Oleksandr Trepak as the commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
LINK
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
Two Ukrainian hydroelectric power stations were completely taken out of operation due to devastating damage from a Russian mass attack on May 8, the state-owned energy company Ukrhydroenergo reported.
LINK
quote:
Putin and Pashinyan have agreed on the withdrawal of Russian military and border guards from a number of regions of #Armenia
At Armenia's request, Russian border guards will remain on the Armenian-Iranian and Armenian-Turkish borders, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
LINK
quote:
Drones attacked the oil refining enterprise "Salavatnaftoorgsintez" in bashkiria, - russian mass media.
A fire broke out on the territory of the plant. According to preliminary data, there are no casualties.
LINK
quote:
The Ukrainian parliament has dismissed Oleksandr Kubrakov from the post of deputy prime minister
Agrarian Policy Minister Mykola Solskyy, who was suspected of land fraud, has also been dismissed.
The court sent him to custody, but Solskyy was released after paying bail. His deputy Markiyan Dmytrasievich was sent to arrest
LINK
quote:
Russia Now Firing Kh-101 Cruise Missiles Modified With Two Warheads At Ukraine
The modification likely halves the range of the missile, but a separate fragmentation warhead makes it considerably more lethal.
LINK
quote:
Czech president recognizes West's mistake regarding Ukraine
In an interview with ARD, Czech President Petr Pavel said that Western countries had provided Ukraine with "cautious support" throughout the war. In his opinion, if the help had come earlier, the situation might have turned out differently.
"I would not say that he (the West - ed.) has lost hope, but throughout the war in Ukraine, the West has been very cautious in its support. From the very beginning, it sought to prevent the escalation of the conflict. Each new stage was discussed for a long time before it was finally implemented. If we had skipped this period of discussions and risk assessment, Ukraine would have received this assistance several months or maybe even years earlier, and the situation could have been different," the president said.
LINK
quote:
Glad to see the mighty T-14 Armata leading Russia's victory day parade again.
Difficult to get an accurate count of the number of vehicles that took part in this morning's Victory Day parade in Moscow but from what I could tell it was around 50, approximately the same as last year.
Missing for the second year in a row included tanks (outside of the lone T-34 that led the parade), artillery, and anti-aircraft systems. The parade mostly consisted of light skinned vehicles such as Tigrs and ended with the usual ICBMs with a handful of BTRs thrown in.
LINK
quote:
The fine for evading mobilization is from 17 to 25 thousand hryvnias.
After the draft law comes into force, a minimum fine of UAH 17,000 will initially be imposed for failure to appear at the military registration and enlistment office, evasion of registration, and late updating of data.
Companies that ignore the need to keep military records of their employees will be fined from UAH 34,000.
LINK
quote:
Following yesterday Large-Scale Russian Missile Attack against Energy Infrastructure in Western Ukraine which resulted in Severe Damage to at least 3 Thermal Power Plants; the Ukrainian Armed Force have Overnight continued their Campaign against Russian Oil Facilities, with at least 7 One-Way “Suicide” Drone reported to have Struck a Major Oil Refinery and Depot near the Town of Yurovka in the Krasnodar Krai Region of Southwestern Russia.
LINK
quote:
Russian soldiers are openly patrolling the (admittedly small) Victory Day Parade column with handheld drone jammers, presumably guarding against a potential Ukrainian UAV attack.
LINK
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#Slovakia wants to create a platform for peace talks with Putin - President Peter Pellegrini
"Due to the war in #Ukraine, other parts of #Europe and the world, weapons are slowly starting to rattle. .... Many are preparing plans for a military conflict, and diplomacy is tempering its vocabulary, let's talk about a ceasefire and see weapons only as a last resort."
Pellegrini also said that if necessary, he would propose Bratislava, which "has experience of such a summit," for peace talks.
LINK
Posted on 5/9/24 at 6:26 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 09 May 2024
In April 2024, Russian attacks intensified in eastern Ukraine, rising by 17 per cent from March 2024. Of these, more than three-quarters were located in the Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar, and Marinka areas of the front line.
Attacks in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar rose by 200 per cent from March to April. This is almost certainly a reflection of Russia's renewed attempts to gain control of the town - situated on high ground to the west of Bakhmut.
Despite the substantial increase in attacks on this axis, Russia made only minor tactical gains in the area during April and almost certainly sustained heavy losses.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 09 May 2024
In April 2024, Russian attacks intensified in eastern Ukraine, rising by 17 per cent from March 2024. Of these, more than three-quarters were located in the Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar, and Marinka areas of the front line.
Attacks in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar rose by 200 per cent from March to April. This is almost certainly a reflection of Russia's renewed attempts to gain control of the town - situated on high ground to the west of Bakhmut.
Despite the substantial increase in attacks on this axis, Russia made only minor tactical gains in the area during April and almost certainly sustained heavy losses.
Posted on 5/9/24 at 6:32 am to WeeWee
quote:
replace the ones who 2 year term of military service is expiring.
They’re being required to serve until the end of the war. No one is being demobilized.
quote:
It has over 9 million military age males to draw troops from.
Ukraine wouldn’t be using extremely coercive measures to compel men to serve if manpower wasn’t an issue. The stories (and videos) of people getting picked off the street, the fights with conscription officers, the protests (generally by women), the episodes where men have been killed by the TCC. These are signs of stress and the system breaking down. They did expand the draft to those as young as twenty five but this is also a sign of desperation, it’s the smallest cohort in their adult population.
This post was edited on 5/9/24 at 6:42 am
Posted on 5/9/24 at 6:57 am to cypher
Source: SBU hits 2 oil depots in Russia's Krasnodar Krai
by Kateryna Hodunova and The Kyiv Independent news desk May 9, 2024 1:21 PM
Ukraine's State Security Service (SBU) hit two oil depots in Russia's Krasnodar Krai overnight on May 9, a source privy to the information told the Kyiv Independent.
The SBU launched a "successful" drone attack on oil depots in the region's village of Yurovka, according to the source.
The oil depots damaged in the attack are reportedly transshipment points for fuel supplies for Russian forces based in occupied Crimea.
"The SBU will continue to reduce Russia's economic and logistical potential for warfare," the source said.
The operational headquarters of Krasnodar Krai claimed earlier in the day that six drones attacked an oil depot in Yurovka.
According to the Russian authorities, the attack caused a fire and damaged parts of the facility. No casualties were reported.
from the Kyiv Post....
SBU Drones Hit Two Oil Depots in Russia’s Krasnodar Region
According to reports from Russian telegram channels, the simultaneous assaults targeted the Lukoil and Temp LLC depots, located approximately 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) apart.
The Kyiv Post
by Kateryna Hodunova and The Kyiv Independent news desk May 9, 2024 1:21 PM
Ukraine's State Security Service (SBU) hit two oil depots in Russia's Krasnodar Krai overnight on May 9, a source privy to the information told the Kyiv Independent.
The SBU launched a "successful" drone attack on oil depots in the region's village of Yurovka, according to the source.
The oil depots damaged in the attack are reportedly transshipment points for fuel supplies for Russian forces based in occupied Crimea.
"The SBU will continue to reduce Russia's economic and logistical potential for warfare," the source said.
The operational headquarters of Krasnodar Krai claimed earlier in the day that six drones attacked an oil depot in Yurovka.
According to the Russian authorities, the attack caused a fire and damaged parts of the facility. No casualties were reported.
from the Kyiv Post....
SBU Drones Hit Two Oil Depots in Russia’s Krasnodar Region
According to reports from Russian telegram channels, the simultaneous assaults targeted the Lukoil and Temp LLC depots, located approximately 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) apart.
The Kyiv Post
This post was edited on 5/9/24 at 7:04 am
Posted on 5/9/24 at 7:07 am to cypher
Ukraine's Security Service UAV strikes Russian refinery, travelling a record 1,500 kilometres
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Thursday, 9 May 2024, 14:18
A Ukrainian long-range drone struck the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan on the morning of 9 May.
Source: sources of Ukrainska Pravda in Ukraine’s Security Service (SSU)
Details: The drone collided with a fluid catalytic cracking unit.
According to the source of Ukrainska Pravda, it was a SSU drone that established a record by travelling 1,500 kilometres.
Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat is one of the largest oil refining and petrochemical production companies in Russia. It specialises in the production of gasoline, diesel fuel and other types of petroleum products.
Ukrainska Pravda
VALENTYNA ROMANENKO — Thursday, 9 May 2024, 14:18
A Ukrainian long-range drone struck the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan on the morning of 9 May.
Source: sources of Ukrainska Pravda in Ukraine’s Security Service (SSU)
Details: The drone collided with a fluid catalytic cracking unit.
According to the source of Ukrainska Pravda, it was a SSU drone that established a record by travelling 1,500 kilometres.
Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat is one of the largest oil refining and petrochemical production companies in Russia. It specialises in the production of gasoline, diesel fuel and other types of petroleum products.
Ukrainska Pravda
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