- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:18 am to Darth_Vader
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:18 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
That’s a great question. The reports I’ve seen is of a concentration of Russia’s most modern tank forces there. But even if that’s true, are they any more well trained in combined arms operations than what we’ve seen thus far? If not, they’ll fare no better than previous Russian offensives.
Exactly, the Russian army hadn’t been able to execute any complicated strategic moves. Maybe
1
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:20 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Korean War
Vietnam War
Soviet Afghanistan War
Nicaragua, Angola and Cambodia say hello
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:23 am to doubleb
quote:
Exactly, the Russian army hadn’t been able to execute any complicated strategic moves. Maybe
This has long been true of the Russian army. Even at the end of WWII when the Red Army was at the apex of its strength, their overall training in combined arms operations was at best rudimentary. Basically they have to rely on overwhelming opposition by massed artillery coupled with massed numbers and a willingness to take gargantuan casualties.
This post was edited on 12/24/22 at 11:26 am
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:23 am to Darth_Vader
People downvote for reasons other than disagreement.
Maybe someone thought you posted the equivalent of “markets may go up, but they might go down” in a stock thread.
Maybe someone thought you posted the equivalent of “markets may go up, but they might go down” in a stock thread.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:24 am to CitizenK
Apologize beforehand this has likely been brought up already…
What’s interesting to me is when Russia invaded Crimea (former Ukraine territory) the Obama administration did nothing. Russia pushes further when Biden is elected and all of a sudden Congress is sending Ukraine billions and Europe is screaming.
What’s the difference? Crimea was much more important.
What’s interesting to me is when Russia invaded Crimea (former Ukraine territory) the Obama administration did nothing. Russia pushes further when Biden is elected and all of a sudden Congress is sending Ukraine billions and Europe is screaming.
What’s the difference? Crimea was much more important.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:25 am to arkiebrian
Probably because they hoped Putin would stop at Crimea.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:27 am to Darth_Vader
Russia would have to make a major penetration into Ukraine from the North to have any chance of disrupting the supply flow. They haven't shown the ability to do that on the battlefield in any phase of this war. Now, with Ukraine having 9 months to prepare, no chance at all. They won't get 50KM into Ukraine before they are stopped.
This post was edited on 12/24/22 at 11:27 am
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:32 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Russia would have to make a major penetration into Ukraine from the North to have any chance of disrupting the supply flow. They haven't shown the ability to do that on the battlefield in any phase of this war. Now, with Ukraine having 9 months to prepare, no chance at all. They won't get 50KM into Ukraine before they are stopped.
Based on what we’ve observed thus far, this is a realistic assessment. I think it all depends on both the size and composition of the forces Russia is amassing in Belarus. Thus far I haven’t seen anything indicating the size of this force so I cannot say how realistic of a chance the Russians have. I will say though it would have to be a rather substantial force, one far larger than what we’ve seen thus far in the war.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:37 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Based on what we’ve observed thus far, this is a realistic assessment. I think it all depends on both the size and composition of the forces Russia is amassing in Belarus. Thus far I haven’t seen anything indicating the size of this force so I cannot say how realistic of a chance the Russians have. I will say though it would have to be a rather substantial force, one far larger than what we’ve seen thus far in the war.
Its my impression that all of the 1st tier Russian units have been mauled badly. I haven't heard of any high quality units that haven't been committed to the war already.
I don't think the Russians have the troops or the equipment to mount another major offensive. I think the stuff happening in the north is just to tie down Ukrainian resources to keep them off the southern front.
The terrain in Northern Ukraine is much more suited to defense than the wide open spaces of the southern plains. I'm not even sure they'd get 50KM in.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:40 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Its my impression that all of the 1st tier Russian units have been mauled badly. I haven't heard of any high quality units that haven't been committed to the war already.
The only thing I’ve been able to read on this buildup in Belarus is it’s comprised of armored formations equipped with the latest T-90 & T-72 variants. I do not know how much artillery and infantry support they have though or the level of training they’ve received. I don’t even know the size of this force. Is it a division? A Corps? An entire tank army? Who knows?
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:57 am to Darth_Vader
Most of the articles I can find are short on detail
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1711321/putin-news-russia-first-tank-army-belarus-lukashenko-ukraine-war-update
From the article bolding added by me:
Based on this, some units from 1 division of the 1st Guards + 20K Conscripts =/= a viable offensive threat.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1711321/putin-news-russia-first-tank-army-belarus-lukashenko-ukraine-war-update
quote:
Putin sends elite tank unit to Belarus as fears grow of new ground attack on Kyiv
The move has added to fears that Moscow is looking to launch a new invasion on Kyiv from Belarus in the coming weeks.
From the article bolding added by me:
quote:
Vladimir Putin has ordered elements of an elite Russian tank unit to Belarus to participate in training exercises. The move has added to fears that Moscow is looking to launch a new invasion on Kyiv from Belarus in the coming weeks. It also comes as the Russian President is scheduled to meet with his Belarusian counterpart on Monday in Minsk.
Analysts believe that Putin will try to pressure Lukashenko into committing Belarusian troops to the war with Ukraine.
Ukraine's Military Intelligence, the GUR, has been warning of a build-up of Russian troops in Belarus for the past few months.
In September, the GUR said they expected as many as 20,000 Russian conscripts to be sent to the country for military training.
Intelligence officers have now confirmed that units from Russia's elite 1st Tank Army have been sent to Belarus to practice their combat coordination.
Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov, a Deputy Chief of the General Staff, told the media at a recent press conference: "As part of the deployment of the regional grouping of the allied state, the Russian units of the 2nd Motorised Rifle Division of the 1st Tank Army of the Western Military District are undergoing training and combat coordination."
He added that Belarusian military instructors were involved in the training exercises.
The Russian tank division was originally constituted in July 1942 and was heavily involved in fighting on the Eastern front during World War 2.
It took part in both the Battle of Stalingrad and the Battle of Kursk, gaining legendary status in the process.
Disbanded in 1998, it was subsequently reconstituted in 2014 as part of a Russian military expansion.
The 1st Tank Army suffered massive losses during the Kharkiv counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces this autumn.
The unit also sustained heavy casualties in fighting in Sumy and the eastern Kyiv region.
The UK's Ministry of Defence believes that the impact of these losses is so severe that it will "take years" to restore the battalion to full strength.
Based on this, some units from 1 division of the 1st Guards + 20K Conscripts =/= a viable offensive threat.
This post was edited on 12/24/22 at 11:58 am
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:59 am to arkiebrian
quote:
What’s the difference
Our POTUS
Posted on 12/24/22 at 12:04 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
What's unknown is how many shells we can continue to buy in the meantime from places such as South Korea. And how much can precision fires make up of the lack of numbers? Quality over quantity? In this current aid package, that's the GLSDB rockets, the JDAM kits, and the Excalibur shells.
Right, but SK also looks across the DMZ and sees the North Koreans with a similar situation to Russia at the start of the war and diminished western ability to help supply them too. Obviously the SK military is far superior with respect to tech, but that doesn’t mean NK won’t be like the Russians and just bombard SK with artillery.
Certainly some interesting calculus beyond just Ukraine by people with far better info and skill than me, just where my mind goes.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 12:06 pm to arkiebrian
quote:
What’s the difference? Crimea was much more important.
Ukraine's leader has balls. He was offered a free ride and all that goes with it but chose to stay and fight. Biden was cornered especially after Ukraine stopped the Russian advances.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 12:12 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Based on this, some units from 1 division of the 1st Guards + 20K Conscripts =/= a viable offensive threat.
Yeah. That’s not going to be near enough for a viable offensive on an entirely new front.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 12:13 pm to DabosDynasty
Didn’t I read here that NK was sending shells to Russia?
Posted on 12/24/22 at 12:19 pm to doubleb
quote:
Our POTU
Obama was prez when Russia invaded Crimea. Biden has reacted very differently with the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine.
When the USSR broke up in 89/90 NATO should have dissolved. Had it done so we wouldn’t have this conflict happening today.
Why didn’t NATO dissolve? Ask Eisenhower about the military/industrial complex that runs our country.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 12:25 pm to doubleb
quote:
Is the reports of Russians in Belarus a feint or is it the real thing? That’s the million dollar question.
My guess is it’s a feint, but I don’t profess to know. I do believe the Ukranians know one way or another.
The Ukrainian border with Belarus is a huge swampy forest, which is penetrated by only a few roads. Russia was able to threaten Kyiv back in February, because that invasion came as a surprise to Ukraine (and most of their forces were in the Donbas).
Now, though, Ukraine has large military units dedicated to protecting those few routes between the countries. There is absolutely no chance that Russia could actually threaten Kyiv now.
Some have speculated that Russia could attempt an attack from Belarus in the West, to try to disrupt Ukraine's supply lines and block equipment coming in from the West. That would make more sense than trying to threaten Kyiv, but there are still significant hurdles that would make this extremely difficult.
At present, the Russian buildup in Belarus is insufficient for any of this, but it does look like Russia is up to something. What that something is, though, is unclear.
I tend to think that Russia might try some minor attacks to try to fix enough Ukrainian forces there to try to prevent a successful Ukrainian offensive elsewhere.
But that's all, if that.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 12:27 pm to arkiebrian
quote:
Ask Eisenhower about the military/industrial complex that runs our country.
Can't
Posted on 12/24/22 at 12:33 pm to doubleb
quote:
Didn’t I read here that NK was sending shells to Russia?
Yeah but it’s reported as not enough to change the course of the war and also “significant” so no real good idea of how much. Right on cue double checking myself I saw they launched another missile yesterday.
I would imagine what they’ve sent was a fraction of what they have and that if we get into that scenario China would want to overwhelm the western efforts in Ukraine to show the world they’ve surpassed the US and the West’s abilities to arm and protect its allies. Not saying they would be successful, but that’s my thought on their approach assuming we actually get to a position where western artillery deliveries stop in Ukraine with the war still active and they decided to move.
Page 2264 of 3850
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News